TÜRKİYE’DE SEKTÖREL AÇIDAN HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN İNCELENMESİ

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3, 2167 - 2177, 31.12.2018

Sinem Eyüboğlu

https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsosbil.431937

Öz

Hisse
senetleri ile büyüme arasındaki ilişki literatürde pek çok kez araştırılmış
olmasına rağmen konuyu sektörel açıdan inceleyen çalışmaların oldukça az olduğu
görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 2000:Q1-2017:Q4 dönemi için Türkiye’de hisse
senedi piyasası ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki sektörel (Hizmet ve
Sanayi) bir perspektiften incelenmiştir. Sınır Testi sonuçları, sektörel gayri
safi yurtiçi hâsıla ile sektörel hisse senedi endeksleri arasında bir
bütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca uzun vadede sektörel
borsa endekslerindeki artışların sektörel GSYH’leri pozitif yönde etkilediği
saptanmıştır. Kısa dönemde de seriler arasında ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçları ise sektöre özgü hisse senetlerinden
ilgili sektör GSYH'sine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya
koymuştur. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümenin ilgili borsa
sektör yatırımlarına duyarlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik büyüme, hisse senedi piyasaları, ARDL Modeli, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi

Examination Relationship between Stock Market and Economic Growth in terms of Sectorial Perspective in Turkey

Öz

Despite the fact that the
relationship between stock markets and growth has been researched many times in
the literature, there are few studies that examined the relationship in terms
of the sectors. In this study, relationship between stock market and economic
growth, are examined from a sectorial perspective (industry and services) cover
the period 2000:Q1 to 2017:Q4 in Turkey. Bound Test results revealed the
existence of cointegration relationship between the sectorial gross domestic
product and sectorial stock indices. In addition, results indicated that an
increase in sectorial stock market indices affects the sectorial GDPs
positively in the long term. In the short term, it is determined that there is
a relationship between the series. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto Causality
test revealed that there is a one-way causality running from sector-specific
stocks to relevant sector-specific GDP. The findings showed that economic
growth is sensitive to sub-sector stock market investments in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, stock markets, ARDL Model, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

Kaynakça

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