TARIMSAL BÜYÜMEYİ ETKİLEYEN EKONOMİK FAKTÖRLERİN ANALİZİ: AB ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Öz

Tarım, yalnızca insanların en temel gereksinimi olan beslenme ihtiyacını karşılaması açısından değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik kalkınmanın sürdürülebilirliğini destekleyecek kaynakları sağlaması bakımından da stratejik bir öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada 2000-2024 dönemini kapsayan 27 AB ülkesinin yıllık verileri ile tarımsal büyümeyi etkileyen faktörler analiz edilmiştir. AB ülkelerinde tarımsal büyümeyi etkileyen bağımsız değişkenler (brüt sabit sermaye oluşumu, tarımsal hammadde ihracatı, tarımsal hammadde ithalatı, tarımsal istihdam, kentsel nüfus artışı ve enflasyon) STATA programı kullanılarak panel veri analizi yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Analiz edilen modelde tarımsal büyüme, enflasyon, kentsel nüfus artışı, tarımsal istihdam, tarımsal büyüme değişkeninin bir yıl önceki değeri %1 düzeyinde; tarımsal hammadde ithalatı değişkeni %5 düzeyinde anlamlı bulunmuştur. Tarımsal büyüme oranı ile tarımsal hammadde ihracatı, tarımsal istihdam, enflasyon ve brüt sabit sermaye oluşumu arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki; tarımsal hammadde ithalatı ve kentsel nüfus artışı arasında ise negatif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda, AB ülkelerinde tarımın yalnızca gıda arzı açısından değil, ekonomik istikrarın bir bileşeni olarak da değerlendirilmesi gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarımsal Büyüme
• Avrupa Birliği
• Panel Veri Analizi

AN ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM EU COUNTRIES

Öz

Agriculture not only provides the primary nutritional need of people, but it is also a vital strategic importance in terms of resources that support the sustainability of economic development of countries. This study aimed to analyze the factors affecting agricultural growth with annual data of 27 European Union (EU) countries covering the period 2000-2024. STATA was used to analyze the independent variables affecting agricultural growth in EU countries (gross fixed capital formation, agricultural raw material exports, agricultural raw material imports, agricultural employment, urban population growth, and inflation). Panel data analysis was used as the method. The analysis showed that agricultural growth, inflation, urban population growth, agricultural employment, and the year-ago value of the agricultural growth variables were significant at the 1% level. Furthermore, the agricultural raw material import variable was significant at the 5% level. The results indicated that there was a positive relationship between agricultural growth rate and agricultural raw material exports, agricultural employment, inflation, and gross fixed capital formation. However, there was a negative relationship between agricultural raw material imports and urban population growth. In this context, it has been concluded that agriculture in EU countries should be regarded not only in terms of food supply but also as a component of economic stability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• European Union
• Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Apostolidou, I., Kontogeorgos, A., Michailidis, A. & Loizou, E. (2014). The Role of Agriculture in Economic Growth: A Comparison of Mediterranean and Northern Views in Europe. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 7(3), 81–102.
2. Awokuse, T. O. & Xie, R. (2015). Does Agriculture Really Matter for Economic Growth in Developing Countries? Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 63, 77–99. https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12038
3. Bakari, S., & Mabrouki, M. (2017). The Effect of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth in South-Eastern Europe: An Empirical Investigation Using Panel Data. Journal of Smart Economic Growth, 2(4), 49–64.
4. Bakari, S. & Tiba, S. (2022). Agricultural Exports, Agricultural Imports and Economic Growth in China. Journal of Smart Economic Growth, 7(3), 35–61.
5. Balaban, S., Joksimović, M. & Stoiljković, B. (2022). The Determinants of Growing Agri-Food Export: The Case of CEE Countries. Ekonomika Poljoprivrede, 69(3), 877–886. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2203877B
6. Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
7. Chhikara, A. & Pasricha, L. (2021). Causal Relationship Between Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth: A Diagnostic Approach. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2(627 S), 33–44.
8. Çelik, H., Ertürkmen, G. & Erdemli, M. (2025). The Effect Of Agricultural Export And Employment On Economic Growth In Türkiye: Evidence From ARDL Approach. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 12(1), 245–256. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1591184

9. El Weriemmi, M. & Bakari, S. (2024). Exploring the Influence of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth: Fresh Insights from Upper Middle-Income Nations. (MPRA Paper No. 121660). University Library of Munich.
10. El Weriemmi, M. & Bakari, S. (2024). The Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Low Income Countries. (MPRA Paper No. 121631). University Library of Munich.
11. Erdinç, Z. & Aydınbaş, G. (2023). Yapısal Kırılmalar Dahilinde Tarımsal Ürün İhracatı ile İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 7(2), 552–564. https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1373874
12. Ergül, M. & Karataş, A. R. (2024). The Relationship Between Agricultural Product Exports and economic growth in Turkey. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25(2), 415–435. Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis (5. Baskı). Prentice Hall.
13. Güloğlu, B. & Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2013). Enflasyonun Tarımsal Fiyatlar Üzerindeki Etkileri: Panel Yumuşak Geçiş Regresyon Analizi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 1–20.
14. Ijirshar, V. U. (2015). The Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 7(3), 113–122.
15. Katz, M. H. (2011). Multivariable Analysis: A Practical Guide for Clinicians and Public Health Researchers. Cambridge University Press.
16. Kyaw, A. M. M. (2017). Agricultural Export and Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries [Yüksek Lisans Tezi, KDI School of Public Policy and Management].
17. Matandare, M. A. (2017). Agriculture Exports and Economic Growth in Zimbabwe. International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research, 2(12), 5503–5513.
18. Mlambo, C., Mukarumbwa, P. & Megbowon, E. (2019). An Investigation of the Contribution of Processed and Unprocessed Agricultural Exports to Economic Growth in South Africa. Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1–16.
19. Mladenović, I. & Sokolov Mladenović, S. (2023). Agriculture and Economic Growth: The EU 27 Record from 2002 to 2021. Ekonomika Poljoprivrede, 70(2), 423–435. https://doi.org/10.59267/ekoPolj2302423M
20. Musabyemariya, M. C., Song, W., Nsengiyera, D. & Tuyishime, D. (2018). Contribution of Agricultural Export to Economic Growth in Rwanda: The Case of Coffee, Tea and Flowers. Journal of Economics and Trade, 3(1), 14–24. O
21. Oluwafemi, K. & Udeorah, S. F. (2023). Agricultural Export And Economic Growth in Nigeria. GPH-International Journal of Agriculture and Research, 6(5), 36–45. R
22. Remeikiene, R., Rozsa, Z., Gaspareniene, L. & Pěnčík, J. (2018). Asessment of The Impact of the International Trade in Agricultural Products on the EU Economic Growth. E+M Ekonomie a Management, 21(4), 33–47. https://doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2018-4-003
23. Sebki, W. (2023). Impact of Agricultural Sector on Economic Growth in MENA Countries: Evidence from Panel FMOLS and DOLS Estimators. Studies of Applied Economics, 41(1). https://doi.org/10.25115/sae.v41i1.8347
24. Seok, J. H. & Moon, H. (2021). Agricultural Exports and Agricultural Economic Growth in Developed Countries: Evidence from OECD Countries. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(7), 1004–1019. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1923780
25. Shah, S. W. A., Haq, M. A. U. & Farooq, R. M. A. (2015). Agricultural Export and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan. Public Policy and Administration Research, 5(8), 88–96.
26. Simasiku, C. & Sheefeni, J. P. (2017). Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Namibia. European Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 4(1), 41–50.
27. Suh, F. S. (2017). The Role of Agriculture in Economic Growth: The Case of China [Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi]. Eastern Mediterranean University, Gazimağusa, Kuzey Kıbrıs.
28. Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (5. Baskı). Cengage Learning.