HATAY'DA (TÜRKİYE) UZUN DÖNEM SICAKLIK DEĞİŞKENLİĞİ VE GELECEĞE YÖNELİK ISINMA PROJEKSİYONLARI

Öz

Bu çalışma, Hatay ilindeki uzun dönem sıcaklık değişkenliğini ve geleceğe yönelik iklim projeksiyonlarını incelemektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, homojenleştirilmiş gözlemsel veriler ile CMIP6 tabanlı iklim projeksiyonlarını birleştirerek geçmiş sıcaklık eğilimlerini değerlendirmek ve gelecekteki ısınma örüntülerini ortaya koymaktır. Antakya, Dörtyol ve İskenderun meteoroloji istasyonlarına ait 1940-2023 dönemini kapsayan yıllık sıcaklık verileri kalite kontrol süreçlerinden geçirilmiş, SNHT, Pettitt ve Buishand testleri kullanılarak homojenlikleri değerlendirilmiş ve seri bağımlılığın etkisini gidermek amacıyla Trend-Free Prewhitening (TFPW) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Uzun dönem eğilimler Mann-Kendall testi ve Sen eğim tahmincisi ile analiz edilmiştir. Geleceğe yönelik sıcaklık projeksiyonları ise SSP2-4.5 ve SSP5-8.5 senaryoları altında CMIP6 verilerinden elde edilerek CBS ortamında değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, il genelinde belirgin bir ısınma eğiliminin bulunduğunu ve en güçlü artışların kıyıdaki İskenderun istasyonunda görüldüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Günlük sıcaklık farkındaki azalma, gece sıcaklıklarındaki artışın daha belirgin olduğunu göstermektedir. Projeksiyonlar, her iki senaryoda da sıcaklıkların artacağını, ancak SSP5-8.5 senaryosunda ısınmanın daha güçlü olacağını göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, Hatay’da iklim değişikliğinin mekânsal olarak heterojen bir karakter taşıdığını ve topoğrafya ile denizellik etkilerinin sıcaklık dağılışını belirgin şekilde kontrol ettiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CMIP6
• Doğu Akdeniz
• Homojenizasyon
• İklim değişikliği
• SSP senaryoları.

LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY AND FUTURE WARMING PROJECTIONS IN HATAY, TÜRKİYE

Öz

This study examines long-term temperature variability and future climate projections in Hatay Province, located along the Eastern Mediterranean coast of Türkiye. The aim is to evaluate historical temperature trends and assess future warming patterns by integrating homogenized observational records with CMIP6-based climate projections. Annual temperature data from the Antakya, Dörtyol, and İskenderun meteorological stations covering the period 1940–2023 were subjected to quality control, homogenization (SNHT, Pettitt, and Buishand tests), and Trend-Free Prewhitening (TFPW) to account for serial correlation. Long-term trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Future temperature conditions for 2041-2060 were derived from CMIP6 datasets under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and evaluated within a GIS environment. Results indicate a clear warming tendency across the province, with the strongest increases observed at the coastal İskenderun station, particularly in mean temperature. A decline in the diurnal temperature range suggests asymmetric warming associated with enhanced nocturnal temperatures. Climate projections show continued warming under both scenarios, with greater increases under SSP5-8.5. Spatial patterns of future temperature change remain strongly influenced by elevation and coastal proximity. These findings demonstrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of climate change in Hatay and provide a basis for regional adaptation planning.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CMIP6
• Climate change
• Eastern Mediterranean
• Homogenisation
• SSP scenarios.

Kaynakça

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