Artvin ve Rize İstasyonlarına ait Aylık Toplam Yağış Verilerinin Trendinin Farklı Yöntemlerle Değerlendirilmesi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 3, 204 - 216, 30.12.2022

Veysel Gümüş , Oğuz Şimşek , Muhammed Kürşad Açar

https://doi.org/10.46578/humder.1207593

Cited By: 3

Öz

Artan sera gazı emisyonuna paralel olarak küresel sıcaklık ortalaması da günden güne artmaktadır. Sıcaklıkta meydana gelen değişim başta yağış olmak üzere diğer iklim parametrelerinde değişikliklere neden olmaktadır. Su kaynakları ve tarımsal faaliyetlerin sürdürülebilir olmasında yağışta meydana gelen değişimin belirlenmesi oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesinde bulunan Rize ve Artvin istasyonlarında 1970-2021 yılları arasında elde edilen aylık ortalama yağış değerlerinde meydana gelen değişimin trendi değerlendirilmiştir. Parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall (MK) ve Spearman Rho (SR) yöntemlerinin yanı sıra, Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) ve Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) yöntemleri ile trend analizi yapılmış ve Sen's eğim yöntemi kullanılarak trend eğimi belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, Rize ve Artvin istasyonlarında SR ve MK yöntemleriyle elde edilen sonuçların benzer olduğu iki istasyonda da birbirleriyle aynı sonuçları verdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, bu yöntemlerle yapılan analizler sonucunda ise Rize istasyonunda herhangi bir ayda istatiksel olarak anlamlı artan veya azalan trend belirlenemez iken, Artvin istasyonunda ise sadece iki ayda istatiksel olarak anlamlı artan ve azalan trend belirlenmiştir. ITST ve IPTA yöntemleri ise daha fazla ayda anlamlı trend belirlemişler ve trendlerin çoğunun artan yönde olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, IPTA ve ITST yöntemlerinin, MK ve SR yöntemlerine kıyasla trend belirlemede daha hassas olduğu vurgulanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Aylık toplam yağış, Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi, Trend analizi yöntemleri, Sen'in eğim metodu

Teşekkür

Bu çalışmanın yapılabilmesi için yağış verilerini sağlayan Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’ne teşekkür ederiz.

Assessing the Monthly Total Rainfall Trends at Artvin and Rize Stations using Different Methods

Öz

The global average temperature is rising along with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The change in temperature causes fluctuations in other climatic parameters, especially precipitation. Determining precipitation change is critical regarding the sustainability of water resources and agricultural activities. In this study, the trend of monthly total precipitation values between 1970-2021 at Rize and Artvin stations in the Eastern Black Sea Region was evaluated. Trend analysis was conducted with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR) methods, the Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) methods, and the trend slope was determined using Sen's slope method. As a result of the study, it was seen that the results obtained using SR and MK methods at Rize and Artvin stations were similar. In addition, as a result of the analyzes made with these methods, while a statistically significant increasing or decreasing trend could not be determined in any month at Rize Station, a statistically significant increasing and decreasing trend were determined in only two months at Artvin Station. The ITST and IPTA methods, on the other hand, found a significant trend in more months, and it was seen that most of the trends were in an increasing direction. As a result, the IPTA and ITST methods have been emphasised as being more sensitive in determining trends than the MK and SR methods.

Kaynakça

• Ipcc, Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis, in The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change W.G. I, Editor. (2021): Geneva. p. 3949.
• S. Yue, P. Pilon, ve B. O. B. Phinney, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross- correlation. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2003. 48(1): p. 51-63.
• H. B. Mann, Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 1945: p. 245-259.
• M. G. Kendall, Rank correlation methods. 1948, London: Griffin. 202.
• T. Haktanir ve H. Citakoglu, Trend, Independence, Stationarity, and Homogeneity Tests on Maximum Rainfall Series of Standard Durations Recorded in Turkey. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2014. 19(9): p. 1-18.
• N. Minarecioğlu ve H. Çıtakoğlu, Trend Analysis of Monthly Average Flows of Kizilirmak Basin. Journal of Anatolian Environmental and Animal Sciences, 2019. 4(3): p. 454-459.
• V. Demir, Trend analysis of lakes and sinkholes in the Konya Closed Basin, in Turkey. Natural Hazards, 2022. 112(3): p. 2873-2912.
• A. Gadedjisso-Tossou, K. Adjegan, Ii, ve A. K. M. Kablan, Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann–Kendall Test and Significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo. Sci, 2021. 3(1): p. 1-20.
• S. Nabi, M. A. Ahanger, ve A. Q. Dar, Spatio-temporal variability of temperature and precipitation in a Himalayan watershed. Natural Hazards, 2022: p. 1-18.
• S. Yue, P. Pilon, ve G. Cavadias, Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology, 2002. 259(1-4): p. 254-271.
• O. Yagbasan, V. Demir, ve H. Yazicigil, Trend Analyses of Meteorological Variables and Lake Levels for Two Shallow Lakes in Central Turkey. Water, 2020. 12(2): p. 1-16.
• Z. Şen, Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2012. 17(9): p. 1042-1046.
• Z. Şen, Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017. 127(3-4): p. 939-947.
• Y. Wang, Y. Xu, H. Tabari, J. Wang, Q. Wang, S. Song, ve Z. Hu, Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China. Atmospheric Research, 2020. 231: p. 1-14.
• T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, ve E. Ferrari, Assessment of seasonal and annual rainfall trend in Calabria (southern Italy) with the ITA method. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 2020. 22(4): p. 738-748.
• E. Şişman ve B. Kizilöz, The application of piecewise ITA method in Oxford, 1870–2019. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2021. 145(3-4): p. 1451-1465.
• P. Z. Seenu ve K. V. Jayakumar, Comparative study of innovative trend analysis technique with Mann- Kendall tests for extreme rainfall. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2021. 14(7): p. 1-15.
• Z. Şen, E. Şişman, ve I. Dabanli, Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) and applications. Journal of Hydrology, 2019. 575: p. 202-210.
• G. Ceribasi ve A. I. Ceyhunlu, Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basin in Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2021. 12(5): p. 1532-1543.
• M. Achite, G. Ceribasi, A. I. Ceyhunlu, A. Wałęga, ve T. Caloiero, The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area. Sustainability, 2021. 13(22): p. 1-17.
• M. Şan, F. Akçay, N. T. T. Linh, M. Kankal, ve Q. B. Pham, Innovative and polygonal trend analyses applications for rainfall data in Vietnam. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2021. 144(3-4): p. 809-822.
• N. Ahmed, G. Wang, M. J. Booij, G. Ceribasi, M. S. Bhat, A. I. Ceyhunlu, ve A. Ahmed, Changes in monthly streamflow in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya Region of Pakistan using innovative polygon trend analysis. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2021. 36(3): p. 811-830.
• J. Mallick, S. Talukdar, M. Alsubih, R. Salam, M. Ahmed, N. B. Kahla, ve M. Shamimuzzaman, Analysing the trend of rainfall in Asir region of Saudi Arabia using the family of Mann-Kendall tests, innovative trend analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2020. 143(1-2): p. 823-841.
• R. N. Singh, S. Sah, B. Das, S. Potekar, A. Chaudhary, ve H. Pathak, Innovative trend analysis of spatio-temporal variations of rainfall in India during 1901–2019. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2021. 145(1-2): p. 821-838.
• M. Arab Amiri ve M. Gocić, Innovative trend analysis of annual precipitation in Serbia during 1946– 2019. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2021. 80(23): p. 1-15.
• T. Hırca, G. Eryılmaz Türkkan, ve M. Niazkar, Applications of innovative polygonal trend analyses to precipitation series of Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2022. 147(1-2): p. 651-667.
• P. K. Sen, Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American statistical association, 1968. 63(324): p. 1379-1389.
• M. Gocic ve S. Trajkovic, Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change, 2013. 100: p. 172- 182.
• R. Atta Ur ve M. Dawood, Spatio-statistical analysis of temperature fluctuation using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope approach. Climate Dynamics, 2016. 48(3-4): p. 783-797.
• S. Ray, S. S. Das, P. Mishra, ve A. M. G. Al Khatib, Time Series SARIMA Modelling and Forecasting of Monthly Rainfall and Temperature in the South Asian Countries. Earth Systems and Environment, 2021. 5(3): p. 531-546.
• Y. R. Liu, Y. P. Li, X. Yang, G. H. Huang, ve Y. F. Li, Development of an integrated multivariate trend-frequency analysis method: Spatial-temporal characteristics of climate extremes under global warming for Central Asia. Environmental Research, 2021. 195: p. 1-14.
• M. Shadmani, S. Marofi, ve M. Roknian, Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran. Water Resources Management, 2011. 26(1): p. 211-224.
• T. Tonkaz, M. Çetin, ve K. Tülücü, The impact of water resources development projects on water vapor pressure trends in a semi-arid region, Turkey. Climatic Change, 2007. 82(1-2): p. 195-209.
• J. D. Salas, J. W. Delleur, V. M. Yevjevich, ve W. L. Lane, Applied modeling of hydrologic time series. 1980: Water Resources Publications. 498.
• H. Von Storch ve A. Navarra, Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques: Proceedings of an Autumn School Organized by the Commision of the European Community on Elba from October 30 to November 6, 1993. Vol. 2. 1995: Springer.
• Y.-S. Yu, S. Zou, ve D. Whittemore, Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. Journal of Hydrology, 1993. 150(1): p. 61-80.
• V. Gumus, Spatio-temporal precipitation and temperature trend analysis of the Seyhan-Ceyhan River Basins, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 2019. 26(3): p. 369-384.
• V. Gumus, Y. Avsaroglu, ve O. Simsek, Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann−Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods. Journal of Earth System Science, 2022. 131(1): p. 1-17.
• F. Akçay, M. Kankal, ve M. Şan, Innovative approaches to the trend assessment of streamflows in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2022. 67(2): p. 222-247.
• S. Gul ve J. Ren, Application of non-parametric innovative trend analysis of different time scale precipitation during (1951–2016) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Acta Geophysica, 2022. 70(1): p. 485-503.