The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables and Ownership Structure on Banking Profitability in Turkey: Dynamic Panel Analysis

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bank Profits
• Macroeconomic variables
• Ownership Structure
• Bank Profits, Macroeconomic variables, Ownership Structure, GMM

Destekleyen Kurum

Cukurova Universitesi

Proje Numarası

13216

MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİN VE SERMAYE YAPISININ TÜRKİYE’DE BANKA KÂRLILIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: DİNAMİK PANEL ANALİZ

Öz

Makroekonomik değişkenlerin ve sermaye yapısının Türkiye’de banka kârlılığı üzerindeki etkisini sistem GMM yöntemiyle inceleyen bu çalışma hem küresel kriz hem de Covid-19 salgınının etkilerini de analize dahil ederek literatüre katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Sağlıklı ve iyi işleyen bir bankacılık sisteminin ekonomik faaliyetlerin devamı açısından son derece önemli bir rol oynadığı bilinmektedir. Ampirik bulgular 2002-2020 döneminde faiz dışı gelir, faaliyet giderleri ve döviz kurunun banka kârlılığı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkide bulunduğuna işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, bazı tahminlerde enflasyonun kârlılığı negatif etkilediği, ekonomik büyümenin ise önemli olmadığı sonucuna varılmaktadır. Kamu, özel veya yabancı sermayeli olmanın banka kârlılığı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Benzer şekilde, hem 2009 küresel finansal kriz hem de Covid-19 salgını için oluşturulan kukla değişkenler de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Veri seti 2002-2009 ve 2010-2020 olarak ikiye bölündüğünde banka kârlılığını anlamlı biçimde etkileyen değişkenlerin farklılaştığı görülmektedir. Genel olarak makroekonomik istikrarın sağlanmasının banka kârlılığı bakımından önemli olduğu değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• makroekonomik değişkenler
• GMM
• banka karliligi
• Bank Profits
• Macroeconomic variables
• Ownership Structure

Proje Numarası

13216

Kaynakça

1. Adekunle, I. A., Onanuga, A. T., Akinola, O. O., & Ogunbanjo, O. W. (2020). Modelling spatial variations of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Africa. Science of the Environment, 729, 138998, 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.scitotenv.2020.138998
2. Albertazzi, U., & Gambacorta, L. (2009). Bank profitability and the business cycle. Journal of Financial Stability, 5(4), 393-409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2008.10.002
3. Al-Homaidi, E., Tabash, M., Farhan, N. S., & Almaqtari, F.A. (2018). Bank-specific and macro-economic determinants of profitability of Indian commercial banks: A panel data approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1548072. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1548072
4. Alper, D., & Anbar, A. (2011). Bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of commercial bank profitability: empirical evidence from Turkey. Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(2), 139-152. http://www.berjournal.com/wp-content/plugins/downloads-manager/upload/BERJ%202(2)2011%20article8%20pp139-152.pdf
5. Arellano, M., & Bond, S.R. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
6. Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Component Models. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D
7. Athanasoglou, P., Brissimis, S. N., & Delis, M. D. (2008). Bank-Specific, industry specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 18, 121–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2006.07.001
8. Athanasoglou P., Delis, M., & Staikouras, C. (2006). Determinants of Banking Profitability in the South Eastern European Region. Bank of Greece Working Paper, 06/47. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10274/

9. Aydın, Y. (2019). Türk bankacılık sektöründe karlılığı etkileyen faktörlerin panel veri analizi ile incelenmesi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 10(1), 181-189. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/679392
10. Aysan, A. F., & Ceyhan, S. P. (2008). What determines the banking sector performance in globalized financial markets? The Case of Turkey. Physica A, 387(7), 1593-1602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2007.11.003
11. Batten, J., & Vo, X.V. (2019). Determinants of Bank Profitability—Evidence from Vietnam. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(6), 1417-1428. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1524326
12. Berger, A. (1995). The Relationship between Capital and Earnings in Banking. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(2), 432-456. https://doi.org/10.2307/2077877
13. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
14. Bikker, J.A., & Vervliet, T.M. (2017). Bank profitability and risk‐taking under low interest rates. Int J Fin Econ. 23, 3-18. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1595
15. Bourke, P. (1989). Concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in Europe, North America and Australia. Journal of Banking and Finance,13(1), 65-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(89)90020-4
16. Bouzgarrou, H., Jouidaa, S., & Louhichib, W. (2018). Bank profitability during and before the financial crisis: Domestic versus foreign banks. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 26-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.05.011
17. Claessens, S., Coleman, N., & Donnelly, M. (2018). Low-For-Long interest rates and banks’ interest margins and profitability: Cross-country evidence. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 35, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2017.05.004
18. Çiftçi, C., & Durusu- Çiftçi, D. (2019). Güçlü Ekonomiye Geçiş Programı Sonrası Türkiye’de Banka Kârlılığının Belirleyicileri. Sosyoekonomi, 27(39), 111-131. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.07
19. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Huizinga, H. (1999). Determinants of commercial bank Interest margins and profitability: some international evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 13(2), 379-408. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3990103
20. Dietrich, A., & Wanzenried, G. (2011). Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 21, 307-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2010.11.002
21. Dietrich, A., & Wanzenried, G. (2014). The determinants of commercial banking profitability in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54, 337–354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2014.03.001
22. He, T. L., Fayman, A., & Casey, K.M. (2014). Bank profitability: The impact of foreign currency fluctuations. Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 16(2), 98104. http://m.www.na-businesspress.com/JABE/CaseyKM_Web16_2_.pdf
23. Hasanov, F. J., Bayramli, N. & Al-Musehel, N. (2018). Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability: Evidence from an Oil-Dependent Economy. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(78), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030078
24. Goddard, J. Molyneux, P. & Wilson, J. O. S. (2004). The profitability of european banks: A cross-sectional and dynamic panel analysis. The Manchester School, 72(3), 1463-6786. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2004.00397.x
25. Gökçe, A., & Sarıtaş, H. (2017). Döviz kurlarındaki değişmelerin Türkiye’deki özel sermayeli bankaların bilançoları üzerine etkileri. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 28, 1-18. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/pausbed/issue/36282/409496
26. Gülhan, Ü., & Uzunlar, E. (2011). Bankacılık sektöründe kârlılığı etkileyen faktörler: Türk bankacılık sektörüne yönelik bir uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15(1), 341-368. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ataunisosbil/issue/2827/38307
27. Fungáčová, Z., & Poghosyan, T. (2011). Determinants of bank interest margins in Russia: Does bank ownership matter? Economic Systems, 35(4), 481-495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2010.11.007
28. Jara-Bertin, M., Moya J., & Perales, A.R. (2014). Determinants of bank performance: Evidence for Latin America. Academia Revista Latinoamericana de Administracion, 27(2), 164-182. https://doi.org/10.1108/ARLA-04-2013-0030
29. King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (3), 717-736. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118406 Kohlscheen, E., Murcia, A. & Contreras, J. (2018). Determinants of bank profitability in emerging markets. BIS Working Papers No 686. https://www.bis.org/publ/work686.pdf
30. Levine, R., Loayza, N., & Beck, T. (2000). Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46, 31-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00017-9
31. Liu, H., & Wilson, J. S. (2010). The profitability of banks in Japan. Applied Financial Economics, 20(24), 1851-1866. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2010.526577
32. Micco, A., Panizza, U. & Yanez, M. (2007). Bank ownership and performance: does politics matter? Journal of Banking and Finance, 31, 219-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.02.007
33. Mishkin, F. S. (2019). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Twelfth edition, Pearson.
34. Molyneux, P., & Thornton, J. (1992). Determinants of European bank profitability: A note. Journal of Banking and Finance, 16, 1173-1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(92)90065-8
35. Ozgur, O., & Gorus, M. S. (2016). Determinants of deposit bank profitability: evidence from Turkey. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 6(3), 218-231. http://www.aebrjournal.org/uploads/6/6/2/2/6622240/joaebrseptember2016_218_231.pdf
36. Pesaran M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
37. Pesaran M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper Series, 1240. https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf Rajan, R. G, & Zingales, L. (1996). Financial dependence and growth. NBER Working Paper No 5758. https://www.jstor.org/stable/116849
38. Rossi, S., Borroni, M., Lippi, A., & Piva, M. (2018). Determinants of bank profitability in the Euro Area: what has changed during the recent financial crisis? International Business Research, 11(5), 18-27. https://doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v11n5p18
39. Sayılgan, G., & Yıldırım, O. (2009). Determinants of profitability in Turkish banking sector: 2002-2007. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 28, 207-2013. http://www.internationalresearchjournaloffinanceandeconomics.com/ISSUES/irjfe_28_18.pdf
40. Short, B. (1979). The Relation between Commercial Bank Profit Rates and Banking Concentration in Canada, Western Union, and Japan. Journal of Banking and Finance, 3, 209–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(79)90016-5
41. Smirlock, M. (1985). Evidence of the (non) relationship between concentration and profitability in banking. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 17, 69-83. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992507
42. Staikouras, C. K., & Wood, G.E. (2004). The determinants of European bank profitability. International Business & Economic Research Journal, 3, 57–68. https://doi.org/10.19030/iber.v3i6.3699
43. Sufian, F. (2009). Determinants of bank profitability in a developing economy: empirical evidence from the china banking sector. Journal of Asia-Pacific Business, 10(4), 281-307. https://doi.org/10.1080/10599230903340205
44. Sufian, F. (2011). Profitability of the Korean banking sector: panel evidence on bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants. Journal of Economics and Management, 7, 43-72. https://jem.fcu.edu.tw/content/pdf/Vol.7No.1/03.pdf
45. Sufian, F. (2012). Determinants of bank profitability in developing economies: empirical evidence from the South Asian banking sectors. Contemporary South Asia, 20(3), 375-399. https://doi.org/10.1080/09584935.2012.696089
46. Tan, Y., & Floros, C. (2012). Bank profitability and GDP growth in China: a note, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10:3, 267-273. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2012.703541
47. Topak, M.S., & Talu, H.N. (2017). Bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability: evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 574-584. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/365937
48. Turgutlu, E. (2014). Dynamics of profitability in the Turkish banking industry. Ege Akademik Bakış, 14(1), 43-52. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/560028
49. TBB (2020). Türkiye Bankalar Birliği, Bankalarımız 2019, Yayın No: 336, İstanbul.
50. TBB (2021). Türkiye Bankalar Birliği. 05 Mayıs 2021 tarihinde https://www.tbb.org adresinden alınmıştır.
51. TCMB (2021). Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası EVDS. Erişim tarihi 06.06. 2021.
52. Ullah, S., Akhtar, P., & Zaefarian, G., (2018). Dealing with endogeneity bias: The generalised methods of moments (GMM) for Panel data. Industrial Marketing Management, 71, 69-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2017.11.010
53. Vu, H., & Nahm, D. (2013). The determinants of profit efficiency of banks in Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 18(4), 615-631. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2013.803847