TAHMIN KULLANICILARININ HIZMETINDEKI POPÜLER VE ÖNEMLI BIR ARAÇ: ‘YARGISAL DÜZELTMELER’

Öz

‘Yargısal düzeltmeler’, tahmin kullanıcılarının yargılarını tahminleme sürecine katmasına olanak veren popüler ve önemli araçlarıdır. Bu çalışmada, pratisyenler tarafından oldukça yaygın olarak kullanılan bu metot hakkında bir literatür derlemesi yapılmıştır. Yargısal düzeltmelerin altında yatan sebep ve motivasyonlar anlatılmış ve ardından da son yıllarda bu konuyla ilgili yapılan bilimsel araştırmaların yoğunlaştığı alanlar incelenmiştir. Aynı zamanda, varolan araştımalardaki bazı önemli fırsatlar gösterilmiş ve gelecekteki yeni araştırmalar için bir gündem oluşturulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yargısal düzeltmeler, yargı, tahminler

A POPULAR AND IMPORTANT TOOL FOR FORECAST USERS: JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENTS

Öz

‘Judgmental adjustments’ constitute one of the popular and important tools in the arsenal of the forecasting practitioners that facilitate the integration of their judgment into the forecasting process. In the current article, a literature review on this widely used method is provided. The motivation and reasons behind judgmental adjustments are examined followed by the recent concentrations of research on the subject. At the same time, primary research gaps are identified and an agenda for future research is provided.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Judgmental adjustments, judgment, forecasting

Kaynakça

1. Bunn, D.W. (1996) “Non-Traditional Methods of Forecasting”, European Journal of Operational Research, 92(3), 528-536.
2. Bunn, D.W., G. Wright (1991) “Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis”, Management Science, 37, 501-518.
3. Carbone, R., A. Anderson, Y. Corriveau, P.P. Corson (1983) “Comparing the Different Time Series Methods: The Value of Technical Expertise, Individualized Analysis and Judgmental Adjustment”, Management Science, 29(5), 559-566.
4. Carbone, R., W. Gorr (1985) “Accuracy of Judgmental Forecasting of Time Series”, Decision Sciences, 16, 153-160.
5. Clements, M.P. (1995) “Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting”, The Economic Journal, 105, 410-420.
6. Deschamps, E. (2004) “The Impact of Institutional Change on Fforecast Accuracy: A Case Study of Budget Forecasting in Washington State”, International Journal of Forecasting, 20(4), 647-657.
7. Diamantopoulos, A., B. Mathews (1989) “Factors Affecting the Nature and Effectiveness of Ssubjective Revision in Sales Forecasting: An Empirical Study,” Managerial and Decision Economics, 10, 51-59.
8. Donihue, M.R. (1993) “Evaluating the Role Judgment Plays in Forecast Accuracy”, Journal of Forecasting, 12, 81–92.

9. Eroğlu, C., K.L. Croxton (2010) “Biases in Judgmental Adjustments of Statistical Forecasts: The Role of Individual Differences”, International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1), 116-133.
10. Eroğlu, C., A.M. Knemeyer (2010) “Exploring the Potential Effects of Forecaster Motivational Orientation and Gender on Judgmental Adjustments of Statistical Forecasts”, Journal of Business Logistics, 31(1), 179-195.
11. Fildes, R., P. Goodwin (2007) “Against your better Judgment? How Organizations can Improve their use of Management Judgment in Forecasting”, Interfaces, 37(6), 570-576.
12. Fildes, R., P. Goodwin, M. Lawrence, K. Nikolopoulos (2009) “Effective Forecasting and Judgmental Adjustments: An Empirical Evaluation and Strategies for Improvement in Supply-Chain Planning”, International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 3–23.
13. Flores, B.E., D.L. Olson, C. Wolfe (1992) “Judgmental Adjustment of Forecasts: A Comparison of Methods”, International Journal of Forecasting, 7(4), 421- 433.
14. Ghalia, M.B., P.P. Wang (2000) “Intelligent System to Support Judgmental Business Forecasting: The Case of Estimating Hotel Room Demand”, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 8(4), 380– 397.
15. Goodwin, P. (2000) “Improving the Voluntary Integration of Sstatistical Forecasts and Judgment”, International Journal of Forecasting, 16, 85–99.
16. Goodwin, P., R. Fildes (1999) “Judgmental Forecasts of Time Sseries Affected by Special Events: Does Providing a Statistical Forecast Improve Accuracy?”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(1), 37– 53.
17. Goodwin P., R. Fildes, M. Lawrence, K. Nikolopoulos (2007) “The Rocess of using a Forecasting Support System”, International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 391-404.
18. Goodwin P., R. Fildes, M. Lawrence, G. Stephens (2011) “Restrictiveness and Guidance in Support Systems”, Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, 39(3), 242-253.
19. Goodwin, P., G. Wright (1994) “Heuristics, Biases and Improvement Strategies in Judgmental Time Series Forecasting”, Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, 22(6), 553– 568.
20. Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, M. Lawrence (2006) “The Effects of Structural Characteristics of Explanations on use of a DSS”, Decision Support Systems, 42(3), 1481- 1493.
21. Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, P. Goodwin (2009) “Expectations, use and Judgmental Adjustment of External Financial and Economic Forecasts: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Forecasting, 28, 19-37.
22. Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, P. Goodwin (2012) “Why Should I Trust your Forecasts?”, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 27, 5-9.
23. Önkal, D., M.S. Gönül (2005) “Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and users of Forecasts”, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 1(1), 13-17.
24. Klassen, R.D., B.E. Flores (2001) “Forecasting Practices of Canadian firms: Survey Results and Comparison”, International Journal of Production Economics, 70(2), 163-174.
25. Lawrence, M., P. Goodwin, M. O'Connor, D. Önkal (2006) “Judgmental Forecasting: A Review of Progress over the Last 25 Years”, International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 493-518.
26. Lee W.Y., P. Goodwin, R. Fildes, K. Nikolopoulos, M. Lawrence (2007). “Providing Support for the use of Analogies in Demand Forecasting tasks”, International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 377-390.
27. Lee, J.K., S.B. Oh, J.C. Shin (1990) “UNIK-FCST: Knowledge-Assisted Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts”, Expert Systems with Applications, 1(1), 39–49.
28. Lee, J.K., C.S. Yum (1998) “Judgmental Adjustment in time Series Forecasting Using Neural Networks”, Decision Support Systems, 22, 135–154.
29. Lim, J.S., M. O'Connor (1995) “Judgmental Adjustment of Initial Forecasts - Its Effectiveness and Biases”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 8(3), 149–168.
30. Lim, J. S., M. O'Connor (1996) “Judgmental Forecasting with Time Series and Causal Information”, International Journal of Forecasting, 12(1), 139–153.
31. Mathews, B.P., A. Diamantopoulos (1986) “Managerial Intervention in Forecasting: An Empirical Investigation of Forecast Manipulation”, International Journal of Research in Marketing, 3, 3-10.
32. Mathews, B.P., A. Diamantopoulos (1989) “Judgemental Revision of Sales Forecasts: A longitudinal Extension”, Journal of Forecasting, 8, 129-140.
33. Mathews, B.P., A. Diamantopoulos (1990) “Judgemental Revision of Sales Forecasts: Effectiveness of Forecast Selection”, Journal of Forecasting, 9, 407-415.
34. McNees, S.K.. (1990) “The Role of Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasting Accuracy”, International Journal of Forecasting, 6(3), 287-299.
35. Önkal, D., M.S. Gönül, M. Lawrence (2008) “Judgmental Adjustments of Previously- Adjusted Forecasts”, Decision Sciences, 39(2), 213-238.
36. Önkal, D., P. Goodwin, M. Thomson, M.S. Gönül, A. Pollock (2009) “The Relative Influence of Advice from Human Experts and Statistical Methods on Forecast Adjustments”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 22, 390-409.
37. Önkal, D., M. Lawrence, K.Z. Sayım (2011) “Influence of Differentiated Roles on Ggroup Forecasting Accuracy”, International Journal of Forecasting, 27(1), 50-68.
38. Sanders, N.R. (1992) “Accuracy of Judgmental Forecasts: A comparison”, Omega: The International Journal of Management, 20, 353–364.
39. Sanders, N.R., K.B. Manrodt (1994) “Forecasting Practices in U.S. Corporations: Survey Results”, Interfaces, 24, 92– 100.
40. Sanders, N.R., K.B. Manrodt (2003) “The Efficacy of Using Judgmental Versus Quantitative Forecasting Methods in Practice”, Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, 31, 511– 522.
41. Sanders, N.R., L.P. Ritzman (2001) "Judgmental Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts" in J. S. Armstrong (ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitoners, Mass:Kluwer Academic Publishers, 405-416.
42. Syntetos, A.A., J.E. Boylan, S.M. Disney (2009) “Forecasting for Inventory Planning: A 50-year Review”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60, 149- 160.
43. Syntetos, A.A., K. Nikolopoulos, J.E. Boylan, R. Fildes, P. Goodwin (2009) “The Effects of Integrating Management Judgement into Intermittent Demand Forecasts”, International Journal of Production Economics, 118, 72-81.
44. Trapero J.R., R. Fildes, A. Davydenko (2011) “Nonlinear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU Level”, International Journal of Forecasting, 30(5), 490-508.
45. Turner, D.S. (1990) “The role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecastin”, Journal of Forecasting, 9, 315–345.
46. Tversky, A., D. Kahneman (1974) "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases", Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
47. Willemain, T.R. (1989) “Graphical Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 179-185.
48. Willemain, T.R. (1991) “The Effect of Graphical Adjustment on Forecast Accuracy”, International Journal of Forecasting, 7(2), 151-154.
49. Wolfe, C., B. Flores (1990) “Judgmental Adjustment of Earnings Forecasts”, Journal of Forecasting, 9, 389-405.
50. Young, R.M. (1982) “Forecasting with an Econometric Model: The Issue of Judgemental Adjustment”, Journal of Forecasting, 1, 189–204.
51. Yüksel, S. (2007) “An Integrated Forecasting Approach to Hotel Demand”, Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 46(7-8), 1063-1070.