FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A REEXAMINATION

Öz

There is a wide empirical and theoretical literature on the causal relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth. The background of the issue is based on the McKinnon and Shaw hypothesis which emphasize that financial liberalization leads to economic growth via high saving and investment rates together with the technological improvements. While some empirical studies support McKinnon and Shaw hypothesis some others find contradictory evidence. In this context, utilizing recent data we investigate the relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth for Turkey over the period 1998-2012. Considering the structural breaks in the analysis period we first employ Zivot-Andrews unit root test and Gregory-Hansen cointegration analysis. Next we examine the causality relationship by means of Toda-Yamamoto methodology. Our main findings are; (i) there is a long run interaction between financial liberalization and economic growth, (ii) there is evidence of the causality running from economic growth to financial liberalization.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial liberalization, growth, structural break, cointegration, causality

TÜRKİYE’DE FİNANSAL LİBERALİZASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: YENİ BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Öz

Finansal liberalizasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi teorik ve ampirik olarak inceleyen geniş bir yazın bulunmaktadır. Konunun temelleri, finansal liberalizasyonun yüksek tasarruf ve yatırım oranlarının yanısıra teknolojik gelişmeler aracılığıyla ekonomik büyümeye yol açtığını vurgulayan McKinnon Shaw hipotezine dayanmaktadır. Ampirik çalışmaların bir kısmı McKinnon Shaw hipotezini desteklerken bazıları ise karşıt yönde sonuçlara ulaşmışlardır. Bu çerçevede, çalışmada Türkiye için 1998-2012 dönemine ait güncel verilerle finansal liberalizasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Analiz dönemi içerisindeki olası yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak öncelikle Zivot-Andrews birim kök testi ve Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme analizi uygulanmaktadır. Daha sonra ilgili değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Toda-Yamamoto yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın temel bulguları (i) Türkiye ekonomisinde finansal liberalizasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin bulunduğu (ii) Nedensellik ilişkisinin ekonomik büyümeden finansal liberalizasyona doğru gerçekleştiği şeklindedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal liberalizasyon, büyüme, yapısal kırılma, eşbütünleşme, nedensellik

Kaynakça

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61. First difference Variables Model A Model C Model A Model C Credit -1.7493 (2003Q3-2005Q2) (2003Q2-2008Q3)
62. (2002Q1-2009Q2 BIST -2.1601 (2001Q1-2009Q2) (2000Q2-2001Q1)
63. (2000Q4-2002Q3) M3 -3.0199 (2001Q1-2006Q3) (2001Q4-2007Q4)
64. (2002Q4-2007Q1) GDP -3.0917 (2007Q1-2009Q3) (2001Q1-2006Q3) (2002Q4-2007Q1)
65. Notes: ***,** and* denote significance at 1%, 5% and 10% level respectively using the critical values from
66. Lee and Strazicich (2003). The parantheses below the test statistics show the break points for the series.
67. Table Hatemi-J (2008) Cointegration Test Modified ADF
68. Modified Philips Credit-GDP -5.772*
69. (2001Q1-2001Q2) -7.122***
70. (2000Q1-2000Q3) BIST-GDP -4.109
71. (2002Q2-2005Q2) -5.932*
72. (2001Q3-2004Q1) M3-GDP -5.996*
73. (2002Q2-2006Q3) -6.597** (2000Q2-2000Q3)
74. Notes: ***,** and* denote significance at 1%, 5% and 10% level respectively using the critical values from
75. Hatemi –J (2008). The parantheses below the test statistics show the break points for the series.
76. Table Granger Causality Test Results Error correction term (p-value) (p-value)
77. Financial liberalization Economic growth Credit  GDP -0.01279 (0.9256)
78. 0.07822 (0.9715) BISTGDP -0.00192 (0.7676)
79. 0.30820 (0.8193) M3GDP --0.00866 (0.5681) 0.78871 (0.6041)
80. Economic growth Financial liberalization GDP Credit -0.03368 (0.0912)
81. 37185 (0.0849) GDPBIST -0.43101(0.0012)
82. 70429 (0.0057) GDP M3 -0.05949 (0.1058) 1.8823 (0.1849)