THE STATIONARITY OF CONSUMPTION-INCOME RATIO: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Öz

In this study we  investigate the stationarity of consumption-income ratio for Turkey. For this aim, the period of 1955-2010 is examined by using the structural break unit root tests, proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992) (ZA), Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) (LP), Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) (LM), and Kapetanios et al. (2005) and also a non linear unit root test developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003). The results provide evidence of unit root exceptions with  one and two break LM unit root test in case of Model A and KSS unit root test in case of constant and trend model. As a result of these findings, we can generally assert that the consumption-income ratio is not mean reverting and thus the political shocks will have permanent effects on the consumption and saving behaviours of households. Besides, these results support the absolute income hypothesis in contrast to the relative income hypothesis, the permanent income hypothesis and the life cycle hypothesis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Consumption-income ratio, unit root tests, structural break

TÜKETİM-GELİR ORANININ DURAĞANLIĞI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de tüketim-gelir oranının durağan olup olmadığı sorgulanmaktadır. Bu amaçla 1955-2010 dönemi, Zivot ve Andrews (1992) (ZA), Lumsdaine ve Papell (1997) (LP), Lee ve Strazicich (2003, 2004) (LM) ve Kapetanios vd. (2005) tarafından geliştirilen yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile Kapetanios vd. (2003) (KSS) tarafından geliştirilen doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, bir ve iki kırılmalı LM testinde Model A ile KSS testinde sabitli ve trendli model hariç, tüketim-gelir oranında birim kökün varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Bu durumda genel itibariyle tüketim-gelir oranının bir sabite yakınsamayacağı dolayısıyla şokların hanehalkının tüketim ve tasarruf davranışları üzerinde kalıcı etkilere sahip olacağı söylenebilecektir. Ayrıca nispi gelir hipotezi, sürekli gelir hipotezi ve ömür boyu gelir hipotezlerinin aksine mutlak gelir hipotezinin geçerliliğinden bahsedilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tüketim-gelir oranı, birim kök testleri, yapısal kırılma

Kaynakça

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