AN INVESTIGATION ON QUANTITATIVE EASING MONETARY POLICY: EXPERIANCE OF JAPAN

Yıl 2015, , 99 - 130, 02.01.2016

Güller Şahin , İrfan Kalaycı

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.103774

Öz

The aim
of this study is to analyze the effects of the monetary policy implemented by
the Central Bank of Japan on the country’s economy and the relationship between
long-term depression trend the economy entered into. In this
respect, the possible effects on the aggregate demand of quantitative easing
monetary policies which are applied by Central Bank of Japan in 2001Q1–2013Q3 sample period are investigated. Econometric time series model is
carried out with Johansen cointegration estimation method using real national
income, monetary base, interest rate, stock index and yen/dollar parity
internal variables. Analysis findings –under the statistical significance of all
coefficients of variables– show that a 1% increase occuring in the monetary base and the stock
index causes to while a %1 decrease in interest rates has a positive effect on
real national income, a 1% increase in yen/dollar parity has a negative effect
on real national income. The study supports the inference belongs to basic descriptive features of
Japan’s economy in the long-term perspective, however, a negative relationship
between real national income and exchange rate does not
support our forecast findings.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bank of Japan, quantitative easing monetary policy, cointegration

NİCELİKSEL GEVŞEME PARA POLİTİKASI ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME: JAPONYA DENEYİMİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Japonya Merkez
Bankası’nın uyguladığı para politalarının
ülke ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerini ve bu
politikaların, ekonominin içerisine girmiş
olduğu uzun süreli depresyonist eğilim ile
ilişkisini çözümlemektir. Buna göre, Japonya Merkez
Bankası tarafından 2001Q1–2013Q3 örneklem dönemi
içerisinde uygulanan niceliksel gevşeme para
politikalarının derneşik talep üzerindeki olası etkileri
araştırılmıştır. Ekonometrik zaman serisi modeli reel
milli gelir, parasal taban, faiz oranı, borsa endeksi ve
yen/dolar paritesi içsel değişkenleri kullanılarak
Johansen eşbütünleşme tahmin yöntemiyle ortaya
konulmuştur. Çözümleme bulguları –değişkenlere ait
bütün katsayıların istatistiksel anlamlılığı altında–
parasal tabanda ve borsa endeksinde meydana gelen
%1’lik bir artışın, faiz oranlarındaki %1’lik bir
azalışın reel milli gelir üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir
etkiye; yen/dolar paritesindeki %1’lik bir artışın ise
reel milli gelir üzerinde pozitif değil negatif bir etkiye
neden olduğunu göstermiştir. Yapılan çalışma Japonya
ekonomisinin tanımlayıcı temel özelliklerine ait
çıkarsamaları uzun dönemli bir bakış açısıyla
desteklemekle birlikte, reel milli gelir ve döviz kuru
arasındaki negatif ilişki tahmin bulgularımızı
desteklememiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Japonya Merkez Bankası, Niceliksel Gevşeme Para Politikası, Eşbütünleşme

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