Impact of Sudden Stops and International Reserves on Bank Lending: Evidence From Turkey

Öz

This paper investigates the effects of sudden stops and international reserves on bank lending in a bank-based emerging market economy, Turkey. It includes a panel of deposit banks in Turkey over the period 2003-2013. Using a system GMM estimation technique, we find that sudden stop of capital inflows has led to deterioration in bank lending. Moreover, the results reveal that over the sudden stop periods higher international reserves held by the Central Bank have served as a buffer and prevented decline in bank lending. Another striking feature of the findings is that higher liquidity and higher deposit ratio have encouraged bank lending over the sudden stop periods whereas higher capitalization ratio placed a reverse impact on bank lending. Overall, we expect that the results provide important implications for similar emerging market economies which have fragile economic structures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sudden stops, international reserves, bank loans, dynamic panel data, Turkish banking industry

Ani Duruşların ve Uluslararası Rezervlerin Banka Kredileri Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışma, bankacılık temelli bir ekonomi olan Türkiye’de, ani duruşların ve uluslararası rezervlerin banka kredileri üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada 2003-2013 döneminde Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren mevduat bankalarından oluşan bir panel veri seti kullanılmaktadır. Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi kullanılarak, sermaye girişlerindeki ani duruşun bankaların kredi verme kararlarını olumsuz etkilediği bulunmuştur. Bunun yanı sıra, Merkez Bankası tarafından daha fazla uluslararası rezervin tutulmasının ani duruş dönemlerinde bir tampon görevi gördüğü ve banka kredilerindeki azalışı önlediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bir diğer ilgi çekici sonuç ise yüksek likiditenin ve yüksek mevduat oranının ani duruş dönemlerinde bankaları kredi verme yönünde teşvik ettiği ancak yüksek sermaye oranının olumsuz etki yarattığıdır. Çalışmadan elde edilen tüm sonuçlar dikkate alındığında, kırılgan ekonomik yapılara sahip benzer yükselen piyasa ekonomileri için önemli çıkarımlar elde edilmesi beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ani duruşlar, uluslararası rezervler, banka kredileri, dinamik panel veri, Türk bankacılık sektörü

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