Child Labor in Turkey via Symmetric and Asymmetric Models: Logit, Probit, Log-log, and Clog-log

Öz

Child labor is still an important social and economic issue despite the efforts to reduce and prevent child labor around the world. Although the child labor rate in Turkey is below the world average, it is almost two times higher than in European and North American countries. This study aims to examine the factors affecting child labor in Turkey by taking into account the asymmetric structure that may exist in the national level micro-data. To achieve this aim, the Child Labor Force Survey data of 2019 are employed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to analyze child labor via the asymmetric log-log and complementary log-log models besides the frequently used symmetric logit and probit models. The findings point out an asymmetric structure in child labor data and the log-log model based on the Gumbel distribution is a more convenient model for modeling child labor in Turkey. The estimation results reveal that the social, economic, and demographic characteristics of the child, parents, and household are significant determinants of child labor. More specifically, the results indicate that the policy and legislative proposals to prevent child labor should target boys between the ages of 15-17, especially those who have younger siblings and live in crowded households.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Child labor
• logit
• probit
• log-log
• clog-log

TÜRKİYE’DE ÇOCUK İŞÇİLİĞİNİN SİMETRİK VE ASİMETRİK MODELLER İLE ANALİZİ: LOGİT, PROBİT, LOG-LOG VE CLOG-LOG

Öz

Çocuk işçiliği, dünya genelinde yürütülen çocuk işçiliğini azaltma ve önleme çalışmalarına karşın önemli bir sosyal ve ekonomik sorun olarak varlığını sürdürmeye devam etmektedir. Türkiye’de çocuk işçiliği oranı, dünya ortalamasının altında olmasına rağmen Avrupa ve Kuzey Amerika ülkelerine göre neredeyse iki kat daha fazladır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de çocuk işçiliği üzerinde etkili olan faktörleri ulusal düzey mikro veride mevcut olabilecek asimetrik yapıyı dikkate alarak analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla, 2019 yılına ait Çocuk İşgücü Araştırması verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bilgimiz dahilinde bu çalışma çocuk işçiliğini araştırmalarda sıklıkla kullanılan simetrik logit ve probit modellerinin yanı sıra asimetrik log-log ve tamamlayıcı log-log modelleri ile analiz eden ilk çalışmadır. Bulgular, çocuk işçiliği verisinde asimetrik yapı olduğuna dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Çocuk işçiliğinin modellenmesinde, Gumbel dağılımından hareketle tahmin yapan log-log modelinin daha uygun olduğu belirlenmiştir. Analizler ışığında, çocuğun, ebeveynin ve hanehalkının sosyal, ekonomik ve demografik özelliklerinin çocuk işçiliği üzerinde önemli etkilere sahip olduğu bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar, çocuk işçiliğini önlemeye yönelik program, politika ve kanun önerilerinin, 15-17 yaş aralığında, özellikle kendinden küçük kardeşi bulunan ve kalabalık hanelerde ikamet eden erkek çocukları hedef alması gerektiğini ifade etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çocuk işçiliği
• logit
• probit
• log-log
• clog-log

Kaynakça

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