Effect of Aviation Industry on Economic Performance

Yıl 2024, , 90 - 120, 30.03.2024

Baki Özsolak , Serdar Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1375942

Öz

In this research, the relationship between the aviation industry and economic performance is investigated. In the study, the observation group G-7 economies and the period 1997-2020 were examined. Two different models were created in the empirical analysis using PVAR econometric methodology and Granger causality estimation. Model 1 consists of per capita income, trade, and unemployment variables as the first group of economic performance criteria. Exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and balance of payments are used in Model 2. In both models, air transport is the dependent variable and CO2 is the control variable. According to the coefficient and causality estimates for Model 1; a two-way and statistically significant positive relationship was obtained between the aviation sector and economic growth. On the other hand, a positive relationship was obtained between the aviation sector, trade, and CO2, and a negative relationship with unemployment. According to Model 2 estimations, the exchange rate affects the aviation industry negatively. However, the aviation sector influences foreign direct investments, balance of payments, and CO2 emissions positively and statistically significantly. According to the empirical results, the aviation sector has an improving effect on the economic performance criteria in the G-7 economies and is among the dynamics of growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Aviation sector, Economic performance, Growth, PVAR, Granger

Havacılık Sektörünün Ekonomik Performansa Etkisi

Öz

Bu araştırmada havacılık sektörü ve ekonomik performans ilişkisi araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmada gözlem grubu G-7 ekonomileri, dönem olarak ise 1997-2020 incelenmiştir. PVAR ekonometrik metodolojisinin ve Granger nedensellik tahmininin kullanıldığı ampirik analizde iki farklı model oluşturulmuştur. Model 1 ilk grup ekonomik performans kriterleri olarak kişi başı gelir, ticaret ve istihdam değişkenlerinden oluşmaktadır. İkinci grup ekonomik performans kriterleri ile Model 2 oluşturulmuştur. Model 2’de döviz kuru, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ödemeler dengesi kullanılmıştır. Her iki modelde de hava taşımacılığı bağımlı değişken, CO2 ise kontrol değişkeni olarak yer almaktadır. Katsayı ve nedensellik tahminlerine göre Model 1 için; havacılık sektörü ve büyüme arasında iki yönlü ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı pozitif ilişki belirlenmiştir. Diğer taraftan havacılık sektörü ile ticaret ve CO2 arasında pozitif, istihdam ile negatif ilişki belirlenmiştir. Model 2 tahminlerine göre ise döviz kuru havacılık sektörünü negatif etkilemektedir. Ancak havacılık sektörü doğrudan yabancı yatırımları, ödemeler dengesini ile CO2 emisyonunu pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkilemektedir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre G-7 ekonomilerinde havacılık sektörü ekonomik performans kriterleri üzerinde iyileştirici etkiye sahiptir ve büyümenin dinamikleri arasında yer almaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Havacılık sektörü, Ekonomik performans, Büyüme, PVAR, Granger

Kaynakça

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