İşsizlik, Gelir ve Çifte Vatandaşlığın Uluslararası Göç Üzerindeki Etkisi: Zamanlararası Bir Analiz

Öz

Göç, demografik, ekonomik ve sosyal yapıların şekillenmesinde merkezi bir rol oynar ve çok çeşitli ekonomik, kurumsal ve politik faktörlerden etkilenir. Bireyler sadece işsizlik, enflasyon veya siyasi istikrarsızlık gibi olumsuz koşullardan kaçmak için değil, aynı zamanda refahlarını iyileştirmek ve daha iyi fırsatlara erişmek için de göç ederler. Bu bağlamda, çifte vatandaşlık, hem kaynak hem de hedef ülkelerde hareketliliği ve işgücü piyasalarına erişimi kolaylaştırarak giderek daha önemli bir kurumsal faktör olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışma, 1995-2020 döneminde en fazla göçmen alan 44 ülkeye yönelik uluslararası göç akışlarının belirleyicilerini araştırmaktadır. Sonuçlar, gelir farklılıkları, işsizlik, enflasyon ve coğrafi mesafe gibi geleneksel ekonomik değişkenlerin zaman içinde göç kararlarını önemli ölçüde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Daha da önemlisi, bulgular, 2000'li yılların başlarında gelirle ilgili faktörlerin göçü şekillendirmede daha etkili olduğunu, ancak son yıllarda çifte vatandaşlığın rolünün giderek daha belirgin hale geldiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu, göç dinamiklerinde yapısal bir kaymaya işaret etmekte ve uluslararası göç modellerini açıklamakta ekonomik belirleyicilerin yanı sıra vatandaşlık rejimlerinin artan önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çifte vatandaşlık
• Uluslararası göç
• Göç akışı
• Sayım modeli
• Gelir

The Impact of Unemployment, Income, and Dual Citizenship on International Migration: An Intertemporal Analysis

Öz

Migration plays a central role in shaping demographic, economic, and social structures, and is influenced by a wide range of economic, institutional, and political factors. Individuals migrate not only to escape adverse conditions such as unemployment, inflation, or political instability, but also to improve their welfare and access better opportunities. In this context, dual citizenship has emerged as an increasingly important institutional factor by facilitating mobility and access to labor markets in both origin and destination countries. This study investigates the determinants of international migration flows to the 44 countries receiving the highest number of immigrants over the period 1995–2020. The results indicate that traditional economic variables such as income differentials, unemployment, inflation, and geographical distance significantly affect migration decisions over time. More importantly, the findings reveal that while income-related factors were more influential in shaping migration during the early 2000s, the role of dual citizenship has become increasingly pronounced in recent years. This suggests a structural shift in migration dynamics, highlighting the growing importance of citizenship regimes alongside economic determinants in explaining international migration patterns.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dual Citizenship
• International Migration
• Migration Flows
• Count Models
• Income

Kaynakça

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