Yeşil Teknoloji Endeksleri ve Metal Piyasaları Arasındaki Zamanla Değişen İlişkiler: Asimetrik TVP-VAR Bağlantılılık Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 44 Sayı: 1, 1 - 25, 23.03.2026

Şerife Akıncı Tok

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1664991

https://izlik.org/JA77CK43SL

Öz

Çalışma, küresel sürdürülebilir enerjiye geçiş bağlamında yeşil teknoloji endeksleri ile stratejik metaller, özellikle bakır ve nikel arasındaki dinamik ve asimetrik etkileşimleri incelemektedir. Amaç, farklı ekonomik koşullar altında finansal piyasalar ile emtia piyasaları arasındaki ilişkinin zaman içinde nasıl değiştiğini belirlemektir. Ocak 2015'ten Eylül 2024'e kadar aylık veriler kullanılarak, Asimetrik Zaman Değişkenli Parametre VAR (TVP-VAR) bağlantılılık yaklaşımı uygulanmıştır. Analiz, MSCI ACWI Sustainable Impact, NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy, S&P Kensho Cleantech endekslerini ve bakır ve nikel fiyatlarını içermektedir. Bulgular, ekonomik belirsizlik ve jeopolitik risklerin bağlantı yapısını güçlü bir şekilde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Yeşil enerji talebinin arttığı dönemlerde metal fiyatları ve yeşil endeksler birlikte hareket ederken kriz dönemlerinde bu ilişki zayıflamaktadır. NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy ve S&P Kensho Cleantech net aktarıcılar olarak bakır, nikel ve MSCI ACWI Sustainable Impact net alıcılar olarak hareket etmektedir. En güçlü aktarım NASDAQ'dan kaynaklanmaktadır. Bunu Kensho ve ACWI izlemektedir. Bu sonuç yeşil hisse senedi piyasalarının yayılma ağını domine ettiğini göstermektedir. Genel olarak sonuçlar stratejik metallerin portföy riskten korunma araçları olarak hizmet edebileceğini ve politika yapıcıların enerji geçişi sırasında arz güvenliği risklerini dikkate almaları gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Asimetrik TVP-VAR bağlantılılığı , Bakır , Yeşil teknoloji endeksleri , Nikel

Time-Varying Relationships between Green Technology Indices and Metal Markets: Asymmetric TVP-VAR Connectedness Approach

https://izlik.org/JA77CK43SL

Öz

Abstract
The study examines the dynamic and asymmetric interactions between green technology indices and strategic metals, particularly copper and nickel, in the context of the global transition to sustainable energy.The aim is to determine how the relationship between financial markets and commodity markets changes over time under different economic conditions. Using monthly data from January 2015 to September 2024, the Asymmetric Time-Variable Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) connectivity approach was applied. The analysis includes the MSCI ACWI Sustainable Impact, NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy, and S&P Kensho Cleantech indices, as well as copper and nickel prices. The findings show that economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks strongly affect the linkage structure. While metal prices and green indices move together during periods of increased green energy demand, this relationship weakens during times of crisis. NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy and S&P Kensho Cleantech act as net transmitters, while copper, nickel, and MSCI ACWI Sustainable Impact act as net receivers. The strongest transmission originates from NASDAQ, followed by Kensho and ACWI. This result indicates that green equity markets dominate the diffusion network.Overall, the findings suggest that strategic metals can serve as portfolio hedging instruments and that policymakers should consider supply security risks during the energy transition.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Asymmetric TVP-VAR connectedness , Copper , Green technology indices , Nickel

Kaynakça

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