OPTIMAL SIZE OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Öz

The aim of this study is to estimate the public expenditure ratio (total public expenditure/GNP) which maximizes economic growth rate in Turkey. The first part of the study focuses on the historical and theoretical framework of the public expenditure and economic growth relationship. In the second part the optimal size of the public sector in Turkey is estimated using Scully (1996) time series analysis. Scully method, under the balanced budget assumption, is based on a regression the equation that relates the public expenditure ratio and economic growth rate. Data covers the 1950-2006 period. Model is tested by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Johansen (1988, 1995) Cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In the model, it was concluded that the optimal size of the public sector in Turkey is about 23.5%  of GNP.

Kamu Harcamalarının Optimal Boyutu: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de iktisadi büyümeyi maksimum kılan kamu harcama oranını (toplam kamu harcaması/GSMH) tahmin etmektir. Çalışmanın ilk bölümü, kamu harcaması ve iktisadi büyüme ilişkisine dair tarihi ve teorik çerçeveye odaklanmaktadır. İkinci bölümde ise, Scully zaman serisi yöntemi (1996) kullanılarak Türkiye için kamu kesiminin optimal hacmi tahmin edilmiştir. Scully yöntemi, iktisadi büyüme oranı ile kamu harcama oranını ilişkilendiren bir denklemin regresyonuna dayanır. Data 1950-2006 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Model, Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi, Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve bir hata düzeltme modeli (ECM) kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Modelde, Türkiye’de optimal kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün GSMH’nın yaklaşık %24.8’ine eşit olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• kamu harcamaları,vergileme,iktisadi büyüme

Kaynakça

1. Chao, J., H. Grubel (1998) “Optimal Levels of Spending and Taxation in Canada”, In Herbert Grubel, (Ed.), How to Use the Fiscal Surplus, Vancouver: The Fraser Instute, 53-68.
2. Clemens, J., N. Veldhius (2010) “Size of Government and Economic Growth”, http://www.fcpp.org/publication.php/175.
3. D’ambrosio, C. (2001) “How Much Should the Government Spend?”, Review of Income and Wealth, 47 (3), 399-404.
4. Engle, R.F., C.W.J. Granger (1987) “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
5. Feldstein, M. (1997) “How Big Should Government Be?”, National Tax Journal, 50(2), 197-213.
6. Grossman, P. (1988) “Government and Economic Growth: A Non-Linear Relationship”, Public Choice, 56(2), 193-200.
7. Gujarati, D. (2001) Temel Ekonometri, (çev.: Ü. Şenesen, G.G. Şenesen), İstanbul: Literatür yayıncılık.
8. Mackness, W. (1999) “Canadian Public Spending: The Case for Smaller More Efficient Government” Public Policy Source, No. 13, The Fraser Institute, Vancouver, 1-38.

9. Mutaşcu, M., M. Miloş (2009) “Optimal Size of Government Spending. The Case of European Union Member States”, Annales Universitas Apulensis Series Oeconomica, 11(1), 447-456.
10. Peden, E. (1991) “Productivity in the United States and Its Relationship to Government Activity: An Analysis of 57 Years, 1929-1986”, Public Choice, 69(2), 153-73.
11. Peden, E., M. Bradley (1989) “Government Size, Productivity, and Economic Growth: The Post-War Experience”, Public Choice, 61(3), 229-245.
12. Schaefer, B.D. (2006) “How the Scope of Government Shapes the Wealth of Nations”, Heritage Lectures, No. 925, 1-17.
13. Scully, G.W. (1989) “The Size of the State, Economic Growth and the Efficient Utilization of National Resources”, Public Choice, 63(2), 149-64.
14. Scully, G.W. (1994) What is the Optimal Size of Government?, Policy Report, No.188, Dallas: National Centre for Policy Analysis.
15. Scully, G.W. (1995) “The ‘Growth Tax’ in the United States”, Public Choice, 85(1-2), 71–80.
16. Scully, G.W. (1996) “Taxation and Economic Growth in New Zealand”, Pacific Economic Review, 1(2), 169–77.
17. Scully, G.W. (2003) “Optimal Taxation, Economic Growth and Income Inequality”, Public Choice, 115(3-4), 299-313.
18. Tanzi, V., L. Schuknecht (1998) “Can Small Governments Secure Economic and Social Well-being”, In Herbert Grubel (Ed.), How to Use the Fiscal Surplus, Vancouver: The Fraser Institute, 69-92.
19. Vedder, R., L. Gallaway (1998) “Government Size and Economic Growth”, Washington: Joint Economic Committee, http://www.house.gov/jec/