IS THE STOCK MARKET A BAROMETER OF THE ECONOMY? THE CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND STOCK PRICES IN TURKEY

Öz

The relationship between the economy and the stock market has long been an important subject of economic research. The observed relationship between the fluctuations in stock prices and economic activity has led to a widespread view that the stock market is a barometer of the economy. This view is tested in this study. In the study, the causality relationship between economic activity and stock prices in Turkey is investigated using quartely data for the period 2000-2016. Toda-Yamamoto causality test is used in the empirical analysis. The results of the causality tests show that there is unidirectional causality running from stock prices to economic activity in Turkey. This is a result supporting the view that the stock market is a barometer of the economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic activity,stock market,stock prices,causality

BORSA EKONOMİNİN BAROMETRESİ MİDİR? TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK AKTİVİTE İLE HİSSE SENEDİ FİYATLARI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Öz

Ekonomi ile borsa arasındaki ilişki uzun zamandır önemli bir ekonomik araştırma konusu olmuştur. Hisse senedi fiyatları ile ekonomik aktivitedeki dalgalanmalar arasında gözlenen ilişki, borsanın ekonominin barometresi olduğu şeklinde yaygın bir görüşün ortaya çıkmasına yol açmıştır. Bu çalışmada bu görüş test edilmiştir. Çalışmada Türkiye’deki ekonomik aktivite ile hisse senedi fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, üç aylık veriler kullanılarak, 2000-2016 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Ampirik analizde Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Nedensellik testlerinin sonuçları, Türkiye’de hisse senedi fiyatlarından ekonomik aktiviteye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu, borsanın ekonominin barometresi olduğu görüşünü destekleyen bir sonuçtur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik aktivite,borsa,hisse senedi fiyatları,nedensellik

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