THE DETERMINANTS OF OIL DEMAND: EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

Öz

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate price and income elasticities of crude oil demand in the Italian economy between 1975 and 2014. The Bound Test is employed as an econometric estimation method. According to Bound Test result, a cointegration relationship has been found between oil consumption, oil prices, and real income. Empirical findings show that the long-run income elasticity and price elasticity of oil demand are statistically insignificant in Italy. In addition, price and income elasticities of oil demand estimated as negative-inelastic and positive-inelastic in the short run, respectively. Thus, crude oil can be defined as a necessity good for Italian consumers over the short term. Also, Error Correction Term (ECT) is estimated to be -1.18. According to ECT, a deviation from the long run equilibrium level of oil demand is corrected about one year later. Italy is an energy dependent country and imports most of it. Since crude oil is necessity, the government should diversify energy sources which are consumed in the entire country and/or undertake policies to increase energy efficiency.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bound test,cointegration,Italy,oil demand

PETROL TALEBİNİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: İTALYA ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı 1975 ve 2014 dönemi için İtalya ekonomisindeki petrol talebinin fiyat ve gelir esnekliklerini tahmin etmektir. Bu amaç için Sınır Testi ekonometrik tahmin yöntemi olarak kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, petrol tüketimi, petrol fiyatları ve reel gelir seviyesi arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre, petrol talebinin fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri uzun dönemde istatistiki olarak anlamsızdır. Bunun yanında, kısa dönemde ise fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri sırasıyla negatif-sert ve pozitif-sert olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Bu yüzden, ham petrol kısa dönemde İtalyan tüketiciler için zorunlu mallar arasında gösterilebilir. Bununla birlikte, Hata Düzeltme Terimi (HDT) -1.18 olarak hesaplanmıştır. HDT’ye göre, petrol talebinin uzun dönem dengesindeki bir sapma yaklaşık bir sene sonra dengeye gelmektedir. İtalya, enerjiye bağımlı bir ülkedir ve tüketiminin çoğunu ithalat yoluyla karşılamaktadır. Ham petrolün zorunlu mallar arasında yer almasından dolayı, İtalyan hükümeti ülkedeki enerji kaynaklarını çeşitlendirmeli ve/veya enerji verimliliğini arttırıcı politikalar üstlenmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sınır testi,eşbütünleşme,İtalya,petrol taleb

Kaynakça

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