CAUSALITY BETWEEN EXCISE TAX REVENUE AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN OECD COUNTRIES

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between excise taxes revenues and government spending areas in OECD countries. Panel data causality analyzes were performed for 20 OECD member countries using yearly data for the 1995-2016 period to investigate the relationship between government spending in education, health, public services, defense, and social protection areas and excise tax revenues. At the end of the analysis, two-way causality relationship between excise tax and defense, education, health, general public services, and social protection spending have been observed. The results support both the spend- tax hypothesis and the tax-spend hypothesis. Furthermore, the tax-spend hypothesis is stronger in social protection spending and the spend-tax hypothesis is stronger in general public spending. Health spending strongly supports two hypotheses. It can be interpreted that the increases in defense, education, and general public services spending in the economies of OECD countries are financed by an increase in excise tax revenues. The bi-directional causality between health spending and excise tax revenue shows that both the increased excise tax revenue is directed towards health spending and excise revenues are used to cover health spending.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Excise Tax
• Government Spending
• Causality Analysis
• Tax-Spend Hypothesis
• Spend-Tax Hypothesis

OECD ÜLKELERİNDE ÖZEL TÜKETİM VERGİ GELİRİ VE DEVLET HARCAMALARI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, OECD ülkelerinde tüketim vergisi gelirleri ile devlet harcama alanları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Devletin eğitim harcamaları, sağlık, kamu hizmetleri, savunma ve sosyal koruma ile tüketim vergisi gelirleri arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek üzere, 20 OECD üyesi ülke için 1995-2016 dönemine ait yıllık veriler ile panel veri nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Analizin sonunda, tüketim vergisi ile savunma, eğitim, sağlık, genel kamu hizmetleri ve sosyal koruma harcamaları arasında iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Sonuçlar, hem harcama vergi geliri hipotezini hem de vergi geliri-harcama hipotezini desteklemektedir. Ayrıca, vergi geliri- harcama hipotezi, sosyal koruma harcamalarında daha güçlü iken genel kamu harcamalarında ise harcama-vergi hipotezi daha güçlüdür. Sağlık harcamaları iki hipotezi kuvvetle desteklemektedir. Savunma, eğitim ve genel kamu hizmetlerinde OECD ülkelerinde harcamaların artmasının, tüketim vergisi gelirlerindeki artışla finanse edildiği çıkarımında bulunulabilir. Sağlık harcaması ve tüketim vergisi geliri arasındaki iki yönlü nedensellik, artan tüketim vergisi gelirinin sağlık harcamalarına yönelik olduğunu ve tüketim harcamalarının sağlık harcamalarını karşılamak için kullanıldığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Özel Tüketim Vergisi
• Devlet Harcamaları
• Nedensellik Analizi
• Harcama-Vergi Geliri Hipotezi
• Vergi Geliri-Harcama Hipotezi

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