KÜRESEL SALGINLARIN SİGORTA ŞİRKETLERİNİN HİSSE GETİRİLERİNE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE VE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI ÜZERİNE BİR OLAY ÇALIŞMASI
Yıl 2021,
, 173 - 193, 30.11.2021
Cengiz Toraman
,
Nevzat Tetik
,
Ersin Kanat
Öz
Küreselleşme ve iletişim ağlarının gelişmesiyle dünyanın herhangi bir yerinde olan bir olay birçok bölgeyi etkileyebilmektedir. Bu durum hastalıklar için de geçerlidir. Dünya tarihi incelendiği zaman, dünyayı etkisi altına alan çeşitli salgınların meydana geldiği görülmektedir. Ancak, günümüzde hastalıkların ve bu hastalıklarla ilgili bilgilerin yayılımı geçmişe nazaran daha hızlı gerçekleşmektedir. Bu sebeple, salgınların ekonomik, sosyolojik ve psikolojik etkileri daha fazla hissedilmektedir. Bu çalışmada salgınların hisse senedi getirileri üzerine etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, 2000 yılından sonra kendini küresel çapta hissettiren önemli hastalıkların, Türkiye ve G7 ülke borsalarında bulunan sigorta şirketlerine ait hisse senedi getirilerine etkilerini ortaya koymaktır. Araştırmada, olay çalışması yöntemi kullanılmaktadır. Seçilen olaylar DSÖ tarafından salgınlarla ilgili olarak yapılmış ilan ve duyuruları kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlardan bazı ülke piyasalarının diğerlerine göre çoğu salgın hastalığa karşı daha duyarlı olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Ülke borsalarının genel olarak COVID-19 salgını dışında kalan diğer salgınlardaki etkileri çok daha kısa süreli gerçekleşmiştir. Piyasaların diğer salgınlarda daha hızlı bir şekilde normale döndüğü görülmektedir.
Kaynakça
- Alber, N. (2020), Finance in the Time of Coronavirus During 100 Days of Isolation: The Case of the European Stock Markets, SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3631517, Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3631517
- Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, S. J. Davis, K. Kost, M., Sammon, T. Viratyosin (2020), The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 1-17, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa008
- Barker, L., F. Bacon (2015), The Ebola Outbreak: A Test of Market Efficiency. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies (Allied Academies International Conference), 20(1), 2-6. New Orleans: Jordan Whitney Enterprises, Inc.
- Basheti I. A., R. Nassar, M. Barakat, R. Alqudah, R. Abufarha, T. L. Mukattash, B. Saini (2021), Pharmacists’ readiness to deal with the coronavirus pandemic: Assessing awareness and perception of roles. Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy, 17(3), 514-522. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sapharm.2020.04.020
- Benninga, S. (2014), Financial Modeling. London: MIT Press.
- Black, F. (1986), Noise. Journal of Finance, 41(3), 529-543.
- Campbell, J. Y., A. W., Lo, A. C. MacKinlay (1997), The Econometrics of Financial Markets, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2013), https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm, Access Date: 02.01.2021.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2019), https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html, Access Date: 02.01.2021.
- Chen, M. H., S. S. Jang, W. G. Kim (2007), The Impact of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwanese Hotel Stock Performance: An Event-Study Approach, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 26(1), 200-212, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm
- Datastream (2021), Thomson Reuters Datastream, Access Date: 04.01.2021.
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2019), https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/update-6-Ebola-haemorrhagic-fever-DRC-7-August-2019.pdf
- Eppli, M., C. JTu (2005), An Event Study Analysis of Mall Renovation and Expanion. Journal of Shopping Center Research, 12(2), 117-130.
- Erdem, O. (2020), Freedom and Stock Market Performance During Covid-19 Outbreak. Finance Research Letters, 36, 1-6, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101671
- Fernandes, N. (2020), Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy, SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3557504 , Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504
- Giudice, A. D., A. Paltrinieri (2017), The Impact of the Arab Spring and the Ebola Outbreak on African Equity Mutual Fund Investor Decisions, Research in International Business and Finance, 41, 600-612. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf
- Ichev, R., M. Marinč (2018), Stock Prices and Geographic Proximity of Information: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak. International Review of Financial Analysis, 56, 153-166. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa 2017.12.004.
- Jiang, Y., Y. ZhangMa, Q. Wang, C. Xu, C. Donovan, W. Sun (2017), H7N9 not only Endanger Human Health but also hit Stock Marketing. Advances in Disease Control and Prevention, 2(1), 1-15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.25196/adcp201711
- Kandil Göker, İ, B. Eren, S. Karaca (2020), The Impact of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) on The Borsa Istanbul Sector Index Returns: An Event Study. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 19(COVID-19 Special Issue), 14-41, DOI: https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.731980
- Kaya, T. (2020), The changes in the effects of social media use of Cypriots due to COVID-19 pandemic. Technology in Society, 63, 1-7. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101380
- Kılıç, Y. (2020), Borsa İstanbul’da COVID-19 (Koronavirüs) Etkisi. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 5(1), 66-77, https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/joeep/issue/53777/734904
- Kim, J., J., Kim, S. K. Lee, L. R. Tang (2020) Effects of Epidemic Disease Outbreaks on Financial Performance of Restaurants: Event Study Method Approach, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 32-41. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.01.015
- Kothari, S. P., J. B. Warner, (2007), Econometrics Of Event Studies. Handbook of Corporate Finance: Empirical Corporate Finance, içinde North-Holland: Elsevier.
- Liu, H., A. Manzoor, C. Wang, L. Zhang, Z. Manzoor (2020a), The COVID-19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 1-19. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082800
- Liu, H., Y. Wang, D. He, C. Wang (2020b), Short Term Response of Chinese stock Markets to the Outbreak of COVID-19, Applied Economics, 1-14, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1776837
- Macciocchi, D., S. Lanini, F. Vairo, A. Zumla, L. T., Figueiredo, F. N., Lauria, G. Ippolito (2016), Short-term Economic Impact of the Zika Virus Outbreak, New Microbiologica, 39(4), 287-289.
- MacKinlay, A. C. (1997) Event Studies in Economics and Finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
- Paarlberg, P. L., A. H. Seitzinger, J. G. Lee (2007), Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 39(2), 325-333.
- Peterson, P. P. (1989), Event Studies: A Review of Issues and Methodology, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 28(3), 36-66.
- Salisu, A. A., G. U. Ebuh, N. Usman (2020), Revisiting Oil-Stock Nexus during COVID-19 Pandemic: Some Preliminary Results, International Review of Economics & Finance, 69, 280-294, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.06.023
- Serra, A. P. (2002), Event Study Tests – A Brief Survey (FEP Working Paper No. 117). Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- SwissRe (2020), World insurance: Riding out the 2020 pandemic storm, Swiss Re Institute, No:4, https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:05ba8605-48d3-40b6-bb79-b891cbd11c36/sigma4_2020_en.pdf, Access Date: 03.01.2021.
- World Health Organization (2020), https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline-covid-19, Access Date: 02.01.2021.
- Zhang, D., M. Hu, Q. Ji (2020), Financial Markets under the Global Pandemic of COVID-19, Finance Research Letters, 36, 1-6. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL OUTBREAKS ON INSURANCE COMPANİES' STOCKS: AN EVENT STUDY ON STOCK MARKETS OF TURKEY AND G7 COUNTRİES
Yıl 2021,
, 173 - 193, 30.11.2021
Cengiz Toraman
,
Nevzat Tetik
,
Ersin Kanat
Öz
An event occurring anywhere in the world can affect many regions with the development of globalization and communication networks. This case is also true for diseases. When the history of the world is examined, it is seen that various global outbreaks have occurred that have affected the world. However, today the spread of diseases and information about these diseases is happening faster than in the past. For this reason, the economic, sociological and psychological effects of the epidemics are felt more. In this study, the effects of global outbreaks on stock returns are investigated. The aim of the study is to show the effects of significant diseases, which occurred globally after 2000, on the stock returns of insurance companies located on the Turkish and G7 country exchanges. Event study method is used in the research. Selected events consist of global outbreak announcements and notices made by World Health Organization (WHO). It is understood from the results of the study that some country markets are more susceptible to most epidemics than others. In general, the effects of other global outbreaks outside the COVID-19 have lasted much shorter on the countries' stock exchanges. Markets appear to normalize more rapidly during other epidemics.
Kaynakça
- Alber, N. (2020), Finance in the Time of Coronavirus During 100 Days of Isolation: The Case of the European Stock Markets, SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3631517, Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3631517
- Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, S. J. Davis, K. Kost, M., Sammon, T. Viratyosin (2020), The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 1-17, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa008
- Barker, L., F. Bacon (2015), The Ebola Outbreak: A Test of Market Efficiency. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies (Allied Academies International Conference), 20(1), 2-6. New Orleans: Jordan Whitney Enterprises, Inc.
- Basheti I. A., R. Nassar, M. Barakat, R. Alqudah, R. Abufarha, T. L. Mukattash, B. Saini (2021), Pharmacists’ readiness to deal with the coronavirus pandemic: Assessing awareness and perception of roles. Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy, 17(3), 514-522. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sapharm.2020.04.020
- Benninga, S. (2014), Financial Modeling. London: MIT Press.
- Black, F. (1986), Noise. Journal of Finance, 41(3), 529-543.
- Campbell, J. Y., A. W., Lo, A. C. MacKinlay (1997), The Econometrics of Financial Markets, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2013), https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm, Access Date: 02.01.2021.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2019), https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html, Access Date: 02.01.2021.
- Chen, M. H., S. S. Jang, W. G. Kim (2007), The Impact of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwanese Hotel Stock Performance: An Event-Study Approach, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 26(1), 200-212, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm
- Datastream (2021), Thomson Reuters Datastream, Access Date: 04.01.2021.
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2019), https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/update-6-Ebola-haemorrhagic-fever-DRC-7-August-2019.pdf
- Eppli, M., C. JTu (2005), An Event Study Analysis of Mall Renovation and Expanion. Journal of Shopping Center Research, 12(2), 117-130.
- Erdem, O. (2020), Freedom and Stock Market Performance During Covid-19 Outbreak. Finance Research Letters, 36, 1-6, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101671
- Fernandes, N. (2020), Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy, SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3557504 , Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504
- Giudice, A. D., A. Paltrinieri (2017), The Impact of the Arab Spring and the Ebola Outbreak on African Equity Mutual Fund Investor Decisions, Research in International Business and Finance, 41, 600-612. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf
- Ichev, R., M. Marinč (2018), Stock Prices and Geographic Proximity of Information: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak. International Review of Financial Analysis, 56, 153-166. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa 2017.12.004.
- Jiang, Y., Y. ZhangMa, Q. Wang, C. Xu, C. Donovan, W. Sun (2017), H7N9 not only Endanger Human Health but also hit Stock Marketing. Advances in Disease Control and Prevention, 2(1), 1-15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.25196/adcp201711
- Kandil Göker, İ, B. Eren, S. Karaca (2020), The Impact of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) on The Borsa Istanbul Sector Index Returns: An Event Study. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 19(COVID-19 Special Issue), 14-41, DOI: https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.731980
- Kaya, T. (2020), The changes in the effects of social media use of Cypriots due to COVID-19 pandemic. Technology in Society, 63, 1-7. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101380
- Kılıç, Y. (2020), Borsa İstanbul’da COVID-19 (Koronavirüs) Etkisi. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 5(1), 66-77, https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/joeep/issue/53777/734904
- Kim, J., J., Kim, S. K. Lee, L. R. Tang (2020) Effects of Epidemic Disease Outbreaks on Financial Performance of Restaurants: Event Study Method Approach, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 32-41. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.01.015
- Kothari, S. P., J. B. Warner, (2007), Econometrics Of Event Studies. Handbook of Corporate Finance: Empirical Corporate Finance, içinde North-Holland: Elsevier.
- Liu, H., A. Manzoor, C. Wang, L. Zhang, Z. Manzoor (2020a), The COVID-19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 1-19. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082800
- Liu, H., Y. Wang, D. He, C. Wang (2020b), Short Term Response of Chinese stock Markets to the Outbreak of COVID-19, Applied Economics, 1-14, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1776837
- Macciocchi, D., S. Lanini, F. Vairo, A. Zumla, L. T., Figueiredo, F. N., Lauria, G. Ippolito (2016), Short-term Economic Impact of the Zika Virus Outbreak, New Microbiologica, 39(4), 287-289.
- MacKinlay, A. C. (1997) Event Studies in Economics and Finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
- Paarlberg, P. L., A. H. Seitzinger, J. G. Lee (2007), Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 39(2), 325-333.
- Peterson, P. P. (1989), Event Studies: A Review of Issues and Methodology, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 28(3), 36-66.
- Salisu, A. A., G. U. Ebuh, N. Usman (2020), Revisiting Oil-Stock Nexus during COVID-19 Pandemic: Some Preliminary Results, International Review of Economics & Finance, 69, 280-294, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.06.023
- Serra, A. P. (2002), Event Study Tests – A Brief Survey (FEP Working Paper No. 117). Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- SwissRe (2020), World insurance: Riding out the 2020 pandemic storm, Swiss Re Institute, No:4, https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:05ba8605-48d3-40b6-bb79-b891cbd11c36/sigma4_2020_en.pdf, Access Date: 03.01.2021.
- World Health Organization (2020), https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline-covid-19, Access Date: 02.01.2021.
- Zhang, D., M. Hu, Q. Ji (2020), Financial Markets under the Global Pandemic of COVID-19, Finance Research Letters, 36, 1-6. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528