TÜRKİYE’DE EKC HİPOTEZİNİN VARLIĞINA DAİR ARAŞTIRMA: ÇOKLU DOĞRUSAL BAĞINTI DURUMUNDA ESNEKLİKLERİ KULLANAN BİR YAKLAŞIM

Öz

This paper searches for the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for Turkey in the period of 1990–2015. The multicollinearity problem arising from the inclusion of both the GDP itself and its quadratic form together in the model presented by the Kuznets Curve is taken into account in this research. In order to overcome the multicollinearity problem, the validity of the EKC hypothesis has been decided through the interpretation of the long-and short-term elasticity coefficients of the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model. Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) index, which are rarely used in the literature, have been added to the EKC model as control variables. The validity of the EKC hypothesis for Turkey is not supported by the results of the empirical analysis since the long–term GDP elasticity is not found negative and also greater than the short–term coefficient. On the other hand, while increasing economic complexity has been found to reduce environmental degradation in the long run, sufficient evidence has not been provided for the importance of the Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) index in the sample period for Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ÇKE hipotezi
• ARDL Modeli
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Çevresel Bozulma
• Karbondioksit Emisyonu
• Çoklu Doğrusal Bağıntı

SEARCHING FOR THE EXISTENCE OF EKC HYPOTHESIS IN TURKEY: AN APPROACH USING ELASTICITIES IN THE PRESENCE OF MULTICOLLINEARITY

Öz

Bu makale, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezinin 1990-2015 örneklem dönemi için Türkiye’deki geçerliliğini araştırmaktadır. Bu araştırma yapılırken, Kuznets eğrisinin ortaya koyduğu modelde, GSYİH'nin hem kendisinin hem de ikinci dereceden formunun birlikte yer almasından kaynaklanan çoklu bağlantı sorununu dikkate alınmaktadır. Çoklu bağlantı sorununun üstesinden gelebilmek için Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) model kullanılarak uzun ve kısa dönem elastikiyet katsayılarının yorumlanması ile EKC hipotezinin geçerliliği hakkında karara varılmıştır. Literatürde nadiren kullanılan Ekonomik Kompleksite Endeksi (ECI) ve Çevre Politikası Katılık (EPS) endeksi, EKC modeline kontrol değişkenleri olarak eklenmiştir. EKC hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerliliği, uzun dönem GSYİH esnekliği negatif bulunmadığından ve kısa dönem esneklik katsayısından daha büyük bulunduğundan ampirik analiz sonuçları ile desteklenememiştir. Öte yandan, ekonomik kompleksitenin artmasının uzun vadede çevresel bozulmayı azalttığı bulgulanırken, Türkiye için çevre politikası katılık endeksinin önemine dair incelenen dönem itibariyle yeterli kanıt bulunamamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• EKC Hypothesis
• ARDL Model
• Economic Growth
• Environmental Degradation
• Carbon Dioxide Emission
• Multicollinearity

Kaynakça

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