TÜRKİYE’DE DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞININ SEKTÖREL İTHALATA ETKİLERİ: BİR ARDL İTHALAT MODELİ ANALİZİ

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 2, 19 - 44, 31.12.2009

Lütfi Erden Güliz Sağlam

Öz

Bretton Woods
Sistemi’nin 1973’de sona ermesini takip eden yıllarda, Türkiye dahil bir çok
ülke esnek veya esneğe yakın bir kur sistemini benimsemiştir. Bu gelişme, kurda
artan oynaklığa yol açarak dış ticaret üzerinde yansımaları olabilecek bir
ortam yaratmıştır. Böylece dış ticaret politikası geliştirmek için, kur
oynaklığının dış ticaret üzerine etkilerinin değerlendirilmesi ön koşul haline
gelmiştir. Bu amaçla, bu çalışma, Türkiye’de döviz kuru oynaklığının önce
toplam ithalat üzerine etkilerini ve daha sonra tüketim ve yatırım malı
ithalatı üzerine etkilerini incelemektedir. Bunun için, 1989-2008 yıllarına ait
aylık veriler kullanarak, önce kur oynaklığı ve ithalat talebi arasında bir
eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olup olmadığı sınır testiyle irdelenmiş, daha sonra
ise bir ARDL hata düzeltme modeli çerçevesinde bu değişkenler arası kısa dönem
dinamikler araştırılmıştır. Bulgular, kur oynaklığı ile yatırım malı ithalatı
arasında negatif bir ilişki ortaya koyarken, tüketim malı ithalatıyla kur
oynaklığı arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığını göstermiştir.      

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz kuru oynaklığı, sektörel ithalat talebi, ARDL Model

The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sectoral Imports in Turkey: An Analysis of an ARDL Model for Imports

Öz

In the
following years after the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in 1973, many
countries including Turkey adopted a flexible or a managed floating exchange
rate system. This has led to a high volatility in the exchage rates, which is
thought to be quite influenatial on foreigh trade. Therefore, it became
imperative for policy makers to evaluate the potential effects of exchange rate
volatility on international trade. To this end, this study investigates the
impact of exchange rate volatility on import demand in Turkey. Further, the
study disaggregates imports into two sectors: import demand on consumption
goods and on investment goods (inlcuding intermediate goods) in order to see
whether volatility in exchange rate has differing impacts. Using monthly data
over 1989-2008 periods, the study firstly performes an ARDL bounds test to
check if the variables of interests form a cointegrating relationship and then
specifies an ARDL error correction model to investigate the short run dynamics
between import demand and volatility. The findings indicate that while
volatility and import demand on investment goods are cointegrated and are
negatively related, there is no cointegrating relationship between exchange
rate volatility and import demand on consumptions goods.  

  

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange rate volatility, sectoral import demand, ARDL Model

Kaynakça

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