OPTIMAL SIZE OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 3, 23 - 50, 30.09.2016

Yalçın Pamuk , Uğur Dündar

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.259128

Cited By: 6

Öz

The
aim of
this
study is to
estimate the public expenditure ratio (total public
expenditure/GNP) which maximizes economic growth
rate in Turkey. The first part of
the study focuses on the historical and theoretical framework of the public
expenditure and economic growth
relationship. In the second part the optimal size
of the public sector in Turkey is estimated using
Scully (1996) time series analysis. Scully
method, under the balanced budget assumption, is based on a regression
the equation that relates the public expenditure ratio and economic growth rate. Data covers the 1950-2006 period. Model is tested by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller
(ADF), Johansen (1988, 1995) Cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model
(VECM). In the model, it was
concluded that the optimal
size of the public sector in Turkey is about 23.5%  of GNP.

Kamu Harcamalarının Optimal Boyutu: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de iktisadi büyümeyi maksimum kılan kamu harcama oranını (toplam kamu harcaması/GSMH) tahmin etmektir. Çalışmanın ilk bölümü, kamu harcaması ve iktisadi büyüme ilişkisine dair tarihi ve teorik çerçeveye odaklanmaktadır. İkinci bölümde ise, Scully zaman serisi yöntemi (1996) kullanılarak Türkiye için kamu kesiminin optimal hacmi tahmin edilmiştir. Scully yöntemi, iktisadi büyüme oranı ile kamu harcama oranını ilişkilendiren bir denklemin regresyonuna dayanır. Data 1950-2006 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Model, Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi, Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve bir hata düzeltme modeli (ECM) kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Modelde, Türkiye’de optimal kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün GSMH’nın yaklaşık %24.8’ine eşit olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

kamu harcamaları, vergileme, iktisadi büyüme

Kaynakça

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