ESTIMATION OF TURKEY’S BEVERIDGE CURVE FOR THE PERIODS OF THE PRE AND THE POST GLOBAL CRISIS

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 3, 73 - 105, 30.09.2016

İbrahim Tokatlıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.259130

Cited By: 2

Öz

This
paper estimates the Beveridge Curve and Matching Function using monthly data on
Turkish Labor Market between January of 2015 and July of 2014. Two sub periods
within the period in question are handled separately to identify the effects of
Global Crisis in 2008 on Turkish Labor Market and Turkey’s Beveridge Curve. The
parameter that reflects the average efficiency of matching technology is treated
as a time varying parameter in estimating the matching function. Estimates are
made on the state-space model. According to the results, it is found that the
parameter which represents the average efficiency of matching technology is
increasing over time. The increase in unemployment and the shortages in open
jobs in the post-crisis periods have led to easily matching the vacancies to
appropriate unemployed. The estimation results show that the Turkey’s Beveridge
Curve has a right sided shift with an increasing slope accompanying, both
within the pre and post crises periods. In addition, evidence on shifting of
the Beveridge Curve within the pre and post crises periods has been observed
however the slope of the curve stayed constant in the sub-periods. 

Küresel Kriz Öncesi ve Sonrası Dönem için Türkiye’nin Beveridge Eğrisi Tahmini

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye İşgücü Piyasası için Ocak-2005 ile Temmuz 2014 tarihleri arasında aylık veriler kullanılarak eşleşme fonksiyonu ve Beveridge Eğrisi tahmin edilmiştir. 2008 yılında yaşanan Küresel Krizin etkilerini görmek için söz konusu dönem iki alt döneme ayrılmıştır. Eşleşme fonksiyonu tahmininde eşleşme teknolojisi ortalama etkinliğini gösteren parametre, zamanla değişen parametre olarak ele alınmış ve tahminler durum-uzay modeli çerçevesinde yapılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre kriz ve sonrası dönemde Türkiye Beveridge Eğrisinin hem eğimini artırdığı hem de sağa doğru kayma gösterdiği bulunmuştur. Bunun yanında kriz öncesi ve sonrası dönemlerde Beveridge Eğrisi’nde kaymalar olduğu ancak alt dönemlerdeki kaymalarda eğiminin değişmediği gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Beveridge eğrisi, Türkiye işgücü piyasası

Kaynakça

• Aydın, N. (2012), “İşsizlik, Beveridge Eğrisi ve Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasına İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2(32), 119-134, Nisan.
• Ağayev, S., A. Bora (2012), “Türkiye İçin Beveridge Eğrisi ve Emek Piyasası Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49(565), 23-36.
• Bell, Una-Louise (1997), “A Comparative Analysis of the Aggregate Matching Process in France, Great Britain and Spain”, Banco de España– Servicio de Estudios, Documento de Trabajo 9721.
• Berman, E. (1997), “Help Wanted, Job Needed: Estimates of a Matching Function from Employment Service Data”, Journal of Labor Economics, 15(1), 251–91.
• Blanchard, O. J., P. Diamond (1989), “The Beveridge Curve”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1(3), 1-76.
• Blanchard, O.J., P. Diamond (1990a), “The Aggregate Matching Function,” in P. A. Diamond, (ed.) Growth, Productivity and Unemployment. Cambridge: MIT Press, 159–206.
• Blanchard, O.J., P. Diamond (1990b), “The Cyclical Behavior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 0(2), 85–143.
• Bleakley, H., J.C. Fuhrer (1997), “Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, Job Matching, and Labor Market Dynamics”, New England Economic Review Sept./Oct., 3­19.
• Bonthuis, B., V. Jarvis, J. Vanhala (2013), “What’s Going On Behind the Euro Area Beveridge Curve(s)?, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No: 1586, September.
• Bouvet, F. (2012), “The Beveridge Curve in Europe: New Evidence Using National and Regional Data”, Applied Economics, 44(27), 3585-3604, DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.579062
• Börsch-Supan, A.H. (1991), “Panel Data Analysis of the Beveridge Curve: Is There a Macroeconomic Relation Between the Rate of Unemployment and the Vacancy Rate?”, Economica, New Series, 58(231) (Aug), 279-297.
• Burda, M.C., C. Wyplosz (1994), “Gross Worker and Job Flows in Europe”, European Economic Review, 38(6), 1287–315.
• Burgess, S.M. (1993), “A Model of Competition between Unemployed and Employed Job- Searchers: An Application to the Unemployment Outflow Rate in Britain”, Economic. Journal, 103(420), 1190–204.
• De Francesco, A.L. (1999), “The Relationship between Unemployment and Vacancies in Australia”, Applied Economics, 31, 641–52.
• Diamond, P.A., A. Sahin (2014), “Shifts in the Beveridge Curve”, FED of Nev York Staff Report, No:687, August. http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr687.pdf
• Dickens, W.T (2009), “A New Method for Estimating Time Variation in the NAIRU” in J. Fuhrer vd. (ed.) Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy, The MIT Press, 207-230 http://dx.doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9780262013635.003.0006
• Dow, J.C.R., L. Dicks-Mireaux (1958), "The Excess Demand for Labour: A Study of Conditions in Great Britain, 1946-1956", Oxford Economic Papers, 10(1), 1–33.
• Fêve, P., F. Langot (1996), “Unemployment and the Business Cycle in a Small Open Economy: G.M.M. Estimation and Testing with French Data”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20(9–10),1609–39.
• Ghayad, R. (2013a), “A Decomposition of Shifts of the Beveridge Curve”, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Public Policy Briefs, No: 13-1
• Ghayad, R, (2013b), “The Jobless Trap.” Working Paper,
• http://media.wix.com/ugd/576e9a_f6cf3b6661e44621ad26547112f66691.pdf.
• Gross, D.M. (1997), “Aggregate Job Matching and Returns to Scale in Germany,” Economics Letters, 56(2), 243–48.
• Hansen, B. (1970), “Excess Demand, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Wages”, Quartely Journal of Economics, 84, 1-23.
• Hansen, M., R. Pancs (2002), “The Beveridge Curve and the Matching Function: Indicators of Normalization in the Latvian Labour Market”, EuroFaculty Working Papers CERGE-EI-GDN http://www.cerge.cuni.cz/pdf/gdn/RRCI_31_paper_01.pdf
• Hobijn, B., A. Sahin (2012), “Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession”, 13th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference.
• Holt, C.C., M.H. David (1966), “The Concept of Job Vacancies in a Dynamic Theory of the Labour Market” In NBER (ed.), The Measurement and Interpretation of Job Vacancies. New York: Columbia University Press, http://www.nber.org/chapters/c1599.pdf
• Kanık, B., E. Sunel, T. Taşkın (2012), “Beveridge Eğrisi ve Eşleşme Fonksiyonu: Türkiye Örneği”, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 2012-24 / 07 Eylül 2012.
• Kanık, B., E. Sunel, T. Taşkın (2014), “Unemployment and Vacancies in Turkey: The Beveridge Curve and Matching Function”, Central Bank Review 14(3), 35-62.
• Keskin, A., H. Şen (2010), “Beveridge Eğrisi, Teori ve Türkiye Uygulaması”, TİSK Akademi, 5(10), 198–208.
• Kosfeld, R; C. Dreger, H.F. Eckey (2006), “On the Stability of the German Beveridge Curve: A Spatial Econometric Perspective”, IZA Discussion Paper Series, DP No: 2099, April.
• Kroft, K., F. Lange, M.J. Notowidigdo, L.F. Katz. (2013), “Long Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation”, Working Paper Series,
• http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/lkatz/files/klnk_ltu_and_great_recession_sep16_2013.pdf
• Krueger, A.B., J. Cramer, D. Cho (2014), “Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?”, Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, March 20-21, 229-299. , http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Projects/BPEA/Spring%202014/2014a_Krueger.pdf
• Layard, R.; S.J. Nickell, R.A. Jackman (1991), Unemployment, Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford: Oxford Univercity Press.
• Mortensen, D., C.A. Pissarides (1994), “Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment”, Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), 397-415.
• Petrongolo, B., C.A. Pissarides (2001), “Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function”, Journal of Economic Literature, 39(june), 390-431.
• Pissarides, C. (2000), Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd (ed), Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Pissarides, C. (1985), “Short-Run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment, Vacancies, And Real Wages”, American Economic Review, 75, 676-90.
• Saglam, B.B., B. Gunalp (2012), “The Beveridge Curve and Labour Market Dynamics in Turkey”, Applied Economics, 44(24), 3195-3202, DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.570725
• Shimer, R. (2005), “The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies”, The American Economic Review, 95(1), 25-49.
• Teo, E., S.M. Thangavelu, E. Quah (2005), “Singapore's Beveridge Curve : A Comparative Study of the Unemployment and Vacancy Relationship for Selected East Asian Countries”, Scape Working Paper Series, Paper No: 2005/08,
• http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp-scape/0508.pdf.
• Valletta, Robert G. (2005), “Why Has the U.S. Beveridge Curve Shifted Back? New Evidence Using Regional Data” FRB SF Working Paper, 2005-25.
• Van Ours, Jan C. (1991), “The Efficiency of the Dutch Labour Market in Matching Unemployment and Vacancies”, De Economist 139:3, 358–78.
• Van Ours, J.C., G. Ridder (1992), “Vacancies and the Recruitment of New Employees”, Journal of Labor Economics, 10(2),138–55.
• Wall H.J., G. Zoega (1997), “The British Beveridge Curve: A Tale of Ten Regions”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series Working Paper, 2001-007B http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2001/2001-007.pdf
• Warren, Ronald S. (1996), “Returns to Scale in a Matching Model of the Labour Market”, Economics Letters, 50(1), 135–42.
• Yashiv, E. (2000), “The Determinants of Equilibrium Unemployment”, American Economic Review, 90(5), 1297–322.
• Yashiv, E. (2008), “The Beveridge Curve” in L. Blume, S.N. Durlauf (eds). The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, (2nd) edition.
• http://www.tau.ac.il/~yashiv/beveridge.pdf