AN EMPIRICAL STUDY FOR EXPLAINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATES AND STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 36 Sayı: 1, 83 - 104, 30.03.2018

Kenan İlarslan

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.411132

Cited By: 4

Öz

Determining
the price and/or price movements of financial assets such as stocks, bonds and
foreign currencies through objective criteria and methods provides various
opportunities for individual and institutional investors such as increasing
profits or reducing losses. In this study, the reflection
of the change in US dollar and Euro currency on BIST 100 index in order to
resolve the ambiguity about financial assets within a certain probability by
the framework of Bayes Theorem is estimated. In the study, Dollar and Euro
exchange rates and BIST 100 index daily closing prices are used as a data
covering the period of 2007-2016. As a result of the study, it is found that
there is a negative relation between exchange rates and stock exchange index in
the short term and a positive relation in the long term. This finding shows
that the methods used in determination of the exchange rates such as “Portfolio
Balance Approach" in the short term and “Traditional Approach” in the long
term are prevalent in Turkey. Besides, it is also found that when Euro exchange
rate increases, the BIST 100 index increases with 53,30% probability at the
same day and  when Dollar exchange rate
increases, the BIST 100 index increases with 52,58% probability at the same
day.

KISA VE UZUN DÖNEMDE DÖVİZ KURLARI İLE BORSA ENDEKSİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN AÇIKLANMASINA YÖNELİK AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz

Hisse
senedi, tahvil ve döviz gibi finansal varlık fiyat ve/veya fiyat
davranışlarının objektif ölçüt ve yöntemlerle belirlenmesi bireysel ve kurumsal
yatırımcılara kazancı artırma ya da zararı azaltma gibi çeşitli fırsatlar
sunar. Bu çalışmada, finansal varlıkların fiyat hareketleri ile ilgili
belirsizliğin giderilmesine yönelik olarak Bayes Teoremi çerçevesinde
Dolar/TLve Euro/TL kurlarındaki bir değişmenin BIST 100 endeksine nasıl
yansıyacağı belli bir olasılık dahilinde tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada,
2007-2016 dönemi Dolar ve Euro kuru ile BIST 100 endeksi günlük kapanış
fiyatları veri olarak kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda döviz kurları
ile borsa endeksi arasında kısa dönemde negatif, uzun dönemde pozitif yönlü bir
ilişkinin bulunduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu bulgu ise Türkiye’de kısa dönemde, döviz
kurlarını belirlemeye yönelik yaklaşımlardan olan “Portföy Dengesi Yaklaşımın” uzun
dönemde ise “Geleneksel Yaklaşımın” geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada
ayrıca Dolar kurunun artması durumunda aynı gün itibariyle BIST 100 endeksinin
%52,58 olasılıkla yükseleceği, Euro kurunun artması durumunda aynı gün itibariyle
BIST 100 endeksinin %53,30 olasılıkla yükseleceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bayes Teorisi, döviz kurları, borsa, tahmin

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