ÜRETİM Mİ, TÜKETİM MI BELİRLEYİCİ? 1990-2015 YILLARINDA TÜRKIYE CO2 EMISYONLARININ KAYNAKLARI VE POLİTİKA ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 39 Sayı: 3, 359 - 378, 29.09.2021

Ayla Alkan Ayla Ogus Binatlı

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.823845

Cited By: 2

Öz

Turkey’s CO2 emissions have been steadily increasing since the 1990s. Determining influences of socioeconomic factors behind this increase can help identify which sectors and what types of policies should be prioritized to go into action. This paper identifies the main contributors to CO2 emissions change within five-year intervals during 1990-2015 by adopting the Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) method. The results show that CO2 emissions increase was driven by per capita expenditure and population factors, while emission coefficient factor had a reducing effect on emissions. As the production side factors fell pretty behind the consumption side factors, net emissions was positive and the actual determiner in CO2 emissions was found as consumption. The most contributing sectors were Electricity, Land Transportation and Mineral. Speeding up renewable energy investments and continuing energy efficiency measures, placing a carbon tax on electricity and oil consumption, promoting public transport and use of clean fuels and vehicles, slowing down construction and raising consumer awareness to change their consumption behavior, particularly to reduce demand for high emitting products and services should be the top priority policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

INDC, Arz-kullanım tablosu, yapısal ayrıştırma analizi, CO2 emisyonu

IS PRODUCTION OR CONSUMPTION THE DETERMINER? SOURCES OF TURKEY’S CO2 EMISSIONS BETWEEN 1990-2015 AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Öz

Turkey’s CO2 emissions have been steadily increasing since the 1990s. Determining influences of socioeconomic factors behind this increase can help identify which sectors and what types of policies should be prioritized to go into action. This paper identifies the main contributors to CO2 emissions change within five-year intervals during 1990-2015 by adopting the Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) method. The results show that CO2 emissions increase was driven by per capita expenditure and population factors, while emission coefficient factor had a reducing effect on emissions. As the production side factors fell pretty behind the consumption side factors, net emissions was positive and the actual determiner in CO2 emissions was found as consumption. The most contributing sectors were Electricity, Land Transportation and Mineral. Speeding up renewable energy investments and continuing energy efficiency measures, placing a carbon tax on electricity and oil consumption, promoting public transport and use of clean fuels and vehicles, slowing down construction and raising consumer awareness to change their consumption behavior, particularly to reduce demand for high emitting products and services should be the top priority policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Supply-Use Table, structural decomposition analysis, CO2 emission, INDC, Turkey

Kaynakça

• Acar, S., A. A. Aşici, O. Balaban, M. B. Berke, İ. Çakmak, S. C. Mazlum, G. N. Demirer, P. İpek, B. Kat, V. Kulaçoğlu, I. Kurnaz, Ü. Şahin, R. Sari, U. Soytaş, F. Taşkin, E. Turhan, B. Ünüvar, E. Voyvoda, B. V. Özenç, A. E. Yeldan, A. Yilmaz, İ. Yücel (2016), Addressing Climate Change from an Economic Policy Perspective, TÜSİAD Publication No: T/2016, 12–583, Istanbul: TUSIAD.
• Akbostancı, E., G. İ. Tunç, S. Türüt-Aşık (2018), “Drivers of fuel based carbon dioxide emissions: The case of Turkey” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 81, 2599–2608.
• Alkan, A., A. Oğuş-Binatlı, Ç. Değer (2018), “Achieving Turkey’s INDC Target: Assessments of NCCAP and INDC Documents and Proposing Conceivable Policies”, Sustainability, 10(6), 2-27.
• Arto, I., E. Dietzenbacher (2014), “Drivers of The Growth in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Environmental Science & Technology, 48(10), 5388–5394, DOI: 10.1021/es5005347.
• Bierbaum, R. M., M. Fay, B. Ross-Larson (2009), World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, Washington, DC: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/201001468159913657/World-development-report-2010-development-and-climate-change .
• Chang, C., M. Dong, B. Sui, Y. Chu (2019), “Driving Forces of Global Carbon Emissions: From Time-and Spatial-Dynamic Perspectives”, Economic Modelling, 77, 70–80, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.01.021.
• Dong, K., H. Jiang, H. Sun, X. Dong (2019), “Driving Forces and Mitigation Potential of Global CO2 Emissions from 1980 through 2030: Evidence from Countried with Different Income Levels”, Science of The Total Environment, 649, 335-343.
• Ehrlich, P. R., J. P. Holdren (1971), "Impact of Population Growth", Science, 171(3977), 1212-1217.
• Henriques, S. T., K. J. Borowiecki (2017), “The Drivers of Long-run CO2 Emissions in Europe, North America and Japan since 1800”, Energy Policy, 101, 537–549, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.11.005.
• International Energy Agency (IEA) (2019), IEA Data and Statistics. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics , Accessed on: 01.01.2019.
• Isik, M., K. Sarica, I. Ari (2020), “Driving forces of Turkey’s Transportation Sector CO2 Emissions: An LMDI Approach”, Transport Policy, 97, 210–219.
• Karakaya, E., A. Bostan, M. Özçağ (2019), “Decomposition and Decoupling Analysis of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in Turkey”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 32080–32091.
• Karapinar, B., H. Dudu, O. Geyik, A. M. Yakut (2019), “How to Reach an Elusive INDC Target: Macro-Economic Implications of Carbon Taxation and Emissions Trading in Turkey”, Climate Policy, 19(9), 1157-1172, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1635875.
• Kat, B., S. Paltsev, M. Yuan (2018), “Turkish Energy Sector Development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE Model Assessment”, Energy Policy, 122, 84–96, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.07.030.
• Kim, H., M. Kim, H. Kim, S. Park (2020), “Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emission from Electricity Generation: Comparison of OECD Countries before and after the Financial Crisis”, Energies, 13, 3522, doi:10.3390/en13143522.
• Köne, A. Ç., T. Büke (2019), “Factor Analysis of Projected Carbon Dioxide Emissions According to the IPCC Based Sustainable Emission Scenario in Turkey”, Renewable Energy, 133, 914-918.
• Perrier, Q., C. Guivarch, O. Boucher (2019), “Diversity of Greenhouse Gas Emission Drivers across European Countries since the 2008 crisis”, Climate Policy, 19(9), 1067-1087, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1625744.
• Republic of Turkey (2015), Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Turkey/1/The_INDC_of_TURKEY_v.15.19.30.pdf , Accessed on: 11.11.2019.
• Republic of Turkey (2017), National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 2017-2023. https://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2018/01/20180102M1-1-1.pdf, Accessed on: 11.11.2019.
• Sesso, P. P., S. F. Amancio-Vieira, I. D. Zapparoli, U. A. Sesso Filho (2020), “Structural Decomposition of Variations of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for the United States, the European Union and BRIC”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 252, 119761, DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119761.
• The Eora Global Supply Chain Database (2019a), Carbon Footprint of Nations/ national.cba.report.1970.2015.txt. https://worldmrio.com/footprints/carbon/ , Accessed on: 01.09.2019.
• The Eora Global Supply Chain Database (2019b), National IO Tables. https://worldmrio.com/countrywise/, Accessed on: 01.05.2019.
• Turkish Statistical Institute (2017), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 1990-2015, Annual Report for submission under the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/reporting-and-review-under-the-convention/greenhouse-gas-inventories-annex-i-parties/submissions/national-inventory-submissions-2017 , Accessed on: 20.12.2019.
• Turkish Statistical Institute (2021), Total Passenger and FReight Traffic at the Airports, Statistic Data Portal. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ulastirma-ve-haberlesme-112&dil=1 , Accessed on: 24.01.2021.
• UNFCCC (2016), Paris Agreement. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreemen, Accessed on: 22.02.2020.
• UNFCCC (2020), GHG data from UNFCCC, Time Series-Annex 1. https://di.unfccc.int/time_series , Accessed on: 01.07.2020.
• World Bank (2020a), World Development Indicators, World Bank Databank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, Accessed on: 01.08.2020.
• World Bank (2020b), Country and Lending Groups-By income. https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups, Accessed on: 01.09.2020.
• Xia, Q., H. Wang, X. Liu, X. Pan (2020), “Drivers of Global and National CO2 Emissions Changes 2000-2017”, Climate Policy, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1864267.
• Zheng, J., Z. Mi, D. Coffman, Y. Shan, D. Guan, S. Wang (2019), “The Slowdown in China’s Carbon Emissions Growth in The New Phase of Economic Development”, One Earth, 1(2), 240–253, DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear. 2019.10.007.
• Zheng, X., Y. Lu, J. Yuan, Y. Baninla S. Zhang, N. C. Stenseth, D. O. Hessen, H. Tian, M. Obersteiner, D. Chen (2020), “Drivers of Change in China’s Energy-Related CO2 Emissions”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(1), 29–36, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1908513117.
• Zhou, P., B. W. Ang (2008), "Decomposition of aggregate CO2 Emissions: a Production-Theoretical Approach." Energy Economics, 30, 1054-1067.