GLOBALIZATION AND INFLATION

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 41 Sayı: 1, 1 - 20, 29.03.2023

Musa Bayır , Çağlar Orak

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1096073

Cited By: 1

Öz

The Turkish economy, particularly during and after the 1990s, has faced with greater levels of inflation, which began to decline following the 2001 banking crisis due to major shift in policymaking within Turkey's political and economic framework. When the global economy is considered, however, substantial globalization has transpired, resulting in a worldwide disinflation trend. Therefore, the question of "How did the global disinflationary period affect the overall performance of Turkey's price stability policy?" has gained prominence as a pertinent one. The primary objective of this article is to examine the impact of globalization on inflation in Turkey within this paradigm. In addition to analyzing volatile patterns in Turkish inflation from 2003 to 2020, the relevance of domestic and international factors will be empirically investigated through structural VAR analysis. Our findings reveal that, domestic prices are explicitly correlated with the globalization through global demand circumstances, imported input costs and foreign currency shifts all of which contribute significantly to price fluxes. Nevertheless, it is imperative to stress that inflation inertia is a crucial aspect of measuring inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, inflation, global output gap, structural autoregression (SVAR).

Küreselleşme ve Enflasyon

Öz

Türkiye Ekonomisi, özellikle 1990’lı yıllar ve sonrasında yüksek enflasyonla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. 2001 krizinden sonra enflasyon oranlarının hızla düştüğü görülmektedir. Bunun üzerinde şüphesiz yaşanan radikal politika dönüşümünün etkisi bulunmaktadır. Ancak, aynı dönemlerde ekonomik küreselleşmede önemli bir artış söz konusudur ve küresel dezenflasyon süreci hemen hemen bütün ülkelerde enflasyon oranlarını düşürmektedir. Bu noktada, “küresel dezenflasyon sürecinin Türkiye’de enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin başarısında katkısı ne kadar olmuştur?” sorusu ile karşılaşılmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye ekonomisinde küreselleşmenin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini ortaya koymaktır. Böylece, söz konusu dönemde enflasyon oranlarında aşağı ve yukarı yönlü hareketlerin açıklanmasında yerel ve küresel faktörlerin nispi önem düzeylerine ilişkin çıkarımlarda bulunulabilecektir. Çalışmada bu çerçevede 2003-2020 dönemine ilişkin yapısal VAR yöntemi kullanılarak ampirik analiz gerçekleştirilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, küreselleşmenin hem küresel talep değişiklikleri hem de üretimde kullanılan girdi fiyatlarındaki gelişmeler ve döviz kuru dalgalanmaları yoluyla Türkiye’deki fiyat gelişmeleri üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak, enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici temel ekonomik göstergenin enflasyon ataleti olduğu altı çizilmesi gereken bir noktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme, Enflasyon, Global Çıktı Açığı, Yapısal VAR

Kaynakça

• Asghar, N., Jaffri, A. A., & Asjed, R. (2013). An empirical investigation of domestic and external determinants of inflation in Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 51(1), 55-70.
• Atuk, O., Özmen, M. U., & Sarikaya, C. (2018). A disaggregated analysis of the impact of output gap on inflation and implications for monetary policy. Prague Economic Papers, 27(6), 668-683. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.677
• Ball, L. M. (2006). Has globalization changed inflation? Retrieved March 22, 2021, from https://www.nber.org/digest/jun07/has-globalization-changed-inflation#:~:text=Globalization%20has%20had%20little%20effect,%22globalization%22%20of%20the%20economy
• Başkonuş Direkçi, T., & Özçiçek, Ö. (2011). Türkiye için küreselleşme ve enflasyon ile ilgili bazı sınamalar. Trakya University Journal of Social Science, 13(1), 1-13.
• Bernanke, B. S. (1986). Alternative explanations of the money income correlation. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 25(1), 49-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(86)90037-0
• Binici, M., Cheung, Y.-W., & Lai, K. (2012). Trade openness, market competition and inflation: Some sectoral evidence from OECD countries. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 17(4), 321-336. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1451
• Blanchard, O., Summers, L., & Martin Cerutti, E. (2015). Inflation and activity - two explorations and their monetary policy implications. IMF Working Paper, WP/15/230.
• Borio, C., & Filardo, A. (2007). Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation. SSRN Electronic Journal(227). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1013577
• Brouillette, D., & Savoie-Chabot, L. (2017). Global factors and inflation in Canada. Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note. https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2017-17
• Ciccarelli, M., & Mojon, B. (2010). Global Inflation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(3), 524-535. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/27867556
• Cinel, E. A. (2018). Türkiye'de enflasyon ve enflasyon hedeflemesi. Bilge Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2(2), 85-98. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/busad/issue/42499/479729
• Clarida, R., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (2001). Optimal monetary policy in open versus closed economies: An integrated approach. American Economic Review, 91(2), 248-252. https://doi.org/10.3386/w8604
• Çiçek, S. (2012). Globalization and flattening of phillips curve in Turkey between 1987 and 2007. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1655-1661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.12.019
• Demir, F. (2018). Global vektör otoregresyon yaklaşımı: Enflasyonun küreselleşmesi hipotezi üzerine bir uygulama [Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi]. Akdeniz Üniversitesi, Antalya.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 74(366), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
• Durmuş, H. (2018). Türkiye'de enflasyon hedeflemesi: Örtük enflasyon ve açık enflasyon dönemleri üzerine bir değerlendirme. Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 6(11), 181-201. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/susbid/issue/38160/410442
• Eickmeier, S., & Moll, K. (2008, August 4). The global dimension of inflation - evidence from factor-augmented phillips curves. Retrieved March 22, 2021, from http://ssrn.com/abstract=1260905
• Eren, E., & Çiçek, S. (2009). Küreselleşme ve enflasyon: Küresel çıktı açığı hipotezi : Türkiye örneği. Eskişehir: EconAnadolu 2009: Anadolu International Conference in Economics I.
• European Central Bank (ECB). (2017). Domestic and global drivers of inflation in the euro area. ECB Economic Bulletin(4), 72-96.
• Finck, D., & Tillmann, P. (2019). The role of global and domestic shocks for inflation dynamics: Evidence from asia. Marburg: Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics. doi:10.1111/obes.12495
• Globan, T., Arčabić, V., & Sorić, P. (2016). Inflation in new EU member states: A domestically or externally driven phenomenon? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(1), 154-168. doi:10.1080/1540496X.2014.998547 Hakkio, C. (2009). Global inflation dynamics. Denver: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1335348
• Hałka, A., & Kotłowski, J. (2017). Global or domestic? Which shocks drive inflation in European small open economies? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(8), 1812-1835. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1193001
• Hanif, M. N., Iqbal, J., & Khan, I. N. (2017). Global commodity prices and domestic inflation: A case study of Pakistan. SBP Research Bulletin, 13(1), 21-51.
• Hemmati, A., Niakan, L., & Varahrami, V. (2018). The external determinants of inflation: The case of Iran. Iranian Economic Review, 22(3), 741-752. https://doi.org/10.22059/ier.2018.66641
• Ihrig, J., Kamin, S. B., Lindner, D., & Marquez, J. (2010). Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. International Finance, 13(3), 343-375. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2010.01268.x
• Jovičić, G., & Kunovac, D. (2017). What is driving inflation and GDP in a small European economy: The case of Croatia. Retrieved March 12, 2021, from https://www.hnb.hr/documents/20182/120703/jovicic-kunovac.pdf/07e4f8df-14ed-4c93-bbbd-e1955f73fa81
• Kara, A. H., & Orak, M. (2008). Enflasyon hedeflemesi̇. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.3586.2085
• Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2000). Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach. Journal of Monetary Economics, 45(3), 561-586. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00010-6
• Kohn, D. L. (2006). The effect of globalization on inflation and their implications for monetary policy. 51. Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
• Manopimoke, P. (2018). Thai Inflation dynamics in a globalized economy. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 1(31), 465-495. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2018.1446673
• Neiss, K. S. (2001). The markup and inflation: Evidence in OECD countries. Canadian Journal of Economics, 34(2), 570-587. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/3131869
• Pfaff, B. (2008). VAR, SVAR and SVEC models: Implementation within R package VARs. Journal of Statistical Software, 27(4), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v027.i04
• Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
• Pop, R.E., & Muraraşu, B. (2018). The drivers of inflation in a small open European economy: The case of Romania. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 9(2), 84-87. https://doi.org/10.18178/ijtef.2018.9.2.593
• Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
• Sims, C. A. (1999). Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis? Quarterly Review; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 10(Win), 2-16. Retrieved from https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/quarterly-review/are-forecasting-models-usable-for-policy-analysis
• Svensson, L. E. (1998). Open-economy inflation targeting. Journal of International Economics, 50(1), 155-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00078-6
• The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). (2008, December 16). Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in 2009. Retrieved April 15, 2021, from https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/c45a05b6-c28a-4dcc-8327-917f192faa9f/Baskan_ParaPol09.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-c45a05b6-c28a-4dcc-8327-917f192faa9f-m3fBfel
• The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). (2020). Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in 2021. Retrieved April 12, 2021, from https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/e3eb0402-2ea1-43f6-a75f-a17abda0131f/2021ParaKurTR.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-e3eb0402-2ea1-43f6-a75f-a17abda0131f-nuRtmWD
• White, W. (2008). Globalisation and the determinants of domestic inflation. Retrieved March 22, 2021, from https://www.bis.org/publ/work250.htm
• WorldBank (WB). (2021). Data. Retrieved March 22, 2021, from https://data.worldbank.org/
• Yılmazkuday, H. (2022). Drivers of Turkish inflation. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 84(C), 315-323. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3957382