GLOBALIZATION AND INFLATION

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 41 Sayı: 1, 1 - 20, 29.03.2023

Musa Bayır Çağlar Orak

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1096073

Öz

The Turkish economy, particularly during and after the 1990s, has faced with greater levels of inflation, which began to decline following the 2001 banking crisis due to major shift in policymaking within Turkey's political and economic framework. When the global economy is considered, however, substantial globalization has transpired, resulting in a worldwide disinflation trend. Therefore, the question of "How did the global disinflationary period affect the overall performance of Turkey's price stability policy?" has gained prominence as a pertinent one. The primary objective of this article is to examine the impact of globalization on inflation in Turkey within this paradigm. In addition to analyzing volatile patterns in Turkish inflation from 2003 to 2020, the relevance of domestic and international factors will be empirically investigated through structural VAR analysis. Our findings reveal that, domestic prices are explicitly correlated with the globalization through global demand circumstances, imported input costs and foreign currency shifts all of which contribute significantly to price fluxes. Nevertheless, it is imperative to stress that inflation inertia is a crucial aspect of measuring inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, inflation, global output gap, structural autoregression (SVAR).

Küreselleşme ve Enflasyon

Öz

Türkiye Ekonomisi, özellikle 1990’lı yıllar ve sonrasında yüksek enflasyonla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. 2001 krizinden sonra enflasyon oranlarının hızla düştüğü görülmektedir. Bunun üzerinde şüphesiz yaşanan radikal politika dönüşümünün etkisi bulunmaktadır. Ancak, aynı dönemlerde ekonomik küreselleşmede önemli bir artış söz konusudur ve küresel dezenflasyon süreci hemen hemen bütün ülkelerde enflasyon oranlarını düşürmektedir. Bu noktada, “küresel dezenflasyon sürecinin Türkiye’de enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin başarısında katkısı ne kadar olmuştur?” sorusu ile karşılaşılmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye ekonomisinde küreselleşmenin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini ortaya koymaktır. Böylece, söz konusu dönemde enflasyon oranlarında aşağı ve yukarı yönlü hareketlerin açıklanmasında yerel ve küresel faktörlerin nispi önem düzeylerine ilişkin çıkarımlarda bulunulabilecektir. Çalışmada bu çerçevede 2003-2020 dönemine ilişkin yapısal VAR yöntemi kullanılarak ampirik analiz gerçekleştirilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, küreselleşmenin hem küresel talep değişiklikleri hem de üretimde kullanılan girdi fiyatlarındaki gelişmeler ve döviz kuru dalgalanmaları yoluyla Türkiye’deki fiyat gelişmeleri üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak, enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici temel ekonomik göstergenin enflasyon ataleti olduğu altı çizilmesi gereken bir noktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme, Enflasyon, Global Çıktı Açığı, Yapısal VAR

Kaynakça

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