Leadership and Democratization in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: Comparative Analysis of Political Systems of Post-Soviet Countries

Öz

This study aims to investigate the prospects of democratization in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan by comparing their political systems. The primary objective is to identify the factors influencing the varying degrees of democratic development between these two Central Asian states, despite their similar socio-cultural and historical backgrounds. The methodology employed involves a systems analysis approach, examining both "input" and "output" functions of the political systems. Key variables include the levels of democracy as the independent variable, and political parties, leaders, resource distribution, and opposition suppression as dependent variables. Results indicate that Kazakhstan, under Nazarbayev, maintained a more controlled political environment through patronage networks and resource allocation, effectively limiting opposition and preserving stability. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan exhibited a more dynamic political landscape with multiple power shifts, driven by competitive party politics and less centralized control over resources. However, both states face significant challenges, including regional fragmentation, corruption, and the influence of Islamist movements, which complicate their democratic trajectories. The findings suggest that while Kyrgyzstan shows potential for democratic development due to its parliamentary system and active civil society, Kazakhstan's path is hindered by entrenched authoritarian practices and elite control.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• political system
• democratization
• leadership
• Kyrgyzstan
• Kazakhstan
• corruption

Kazakistan ve Kırgızistan'da Liderlik ve Demokratikleşme: Sovyet Sonrası Ülkelerin Siyasi Sistemlerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Kazakistan ve Kırgızistan'ın siyasi sistemlerini karşılaştırarak bu iki Orta Asya ülkesinde demokratikleşme perspektiflerini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ana hedef, benzer sosyo-kültürel ve tarihsel geçmişlerine rağmen bu iki devlet arasındaki farklı demokratik gelişim seviyelerini etkileyen faktörleri belirlemektir. Kullanılan metodoloji, siyasi sistemlerin hem "giriş" hem de "çıkış" işlevlerini inceleyen bir sistem analizi yaklaşımını içermektedir. Anahtar değişkenler, bağımsız değişken olarak demokrasi seviyeleri ve bağımlı değişkenler olarak siyasi partiler, liderler, kaynak dağılımı ve muhalefet baskısıdır. Sonuçlar, Nazarbayev yönetimindeki Kazakistan'ın, patronaj ağları ve kaynak dağılımı yoluyla daha kontrollü bir siyasi ortamı koruyarak muhalefeti etkili bir şekilde sınırladığını ve istikrarı sağladığını göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, Kırgızistan daha dinamik bir siyasi manzara sergilemekte, rekabetçi parti politikaları ve kaynaklar üzerindeki daha az merkezileşmiş kontrol ile birçok güç değişimi yaşamaktadır. Ancak her iki devlet de bölgesel parçalanma, yolsuzluk ve İslamcı hareketlerin etkisi gibi önemli zorluklarla karşı karşıyadır ve bu durum demokratik gelişim süreçlerini zorlaştırmaktadır. Bulgular, Kırgızistan'ın parlamenter sistemi ve aktif sivil toplumu nedeniyle demokratik gelişim için potansiyel gösterdiğini, ancak Kazakistan'ın yolunun kökleşmiş otoriter uygulamalar ve elit kontrolü tarafından engellendiğini öne sürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• siyasi sistem
• demokratikleşme
• liderlik
• Kırgızistan
• Kazakistan
• yolsuzluk

Kaynakça

1. Almond, G., & Powell, B. (1966), Comparative Politics: A Developmental Approach. Boston: Little, Brown.
2. Anderson, J. (1999), Kyrgyzstan: Central Asia’s Island of Democracy? Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers.
3. Åslund, A. (2007), How Capitalism Was Built: The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia. Cambridge University Press.
4. Aziz, K. (2022), “Kyrgyz Democracy – A Headless Rider”. Center for Political and Legal Research. Retrieved from https://center.kg/article/465
5. BBC News. “Kazakhstan: Why are there riots and why are Russian troops there?”, 10 January 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-59894266
6. Buluktaev, Y. O. (2018), “Prospects for the Dominant Party Based on The Results of Elections to the Mazhilis of The Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan”. Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
7. Caron, J. F. (Ed.). (2021), Understanding Kazakhstan’s 2019 Political Transition. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4308-5
8. Collins, K. (2006), The Logic of Clan Politics: Evidence from the Central Asian Trajectories. – World Politics, Vol. 56, No. 2, pp. 224-261.

9. Cummings, S. N. (2002), “Kazakhstan: An Uneasy Relationship - Power and Authority in the Nazarbaev Regime”. In S. N. Cummings (Ed.), Power and Change in Central Asia. London: Routledge.
10. Dellecker, A., & Nixey, J. (2022), “Kazakhstan: Democratic Developments and Constraints. Central Asian Survey”, 41(2), pp. 123-145. https://doi.org/10.1080/02634937.2022.2039415
11. Engvall, J. (2007), “Kyrgyzstan: Anatomy of a State”. Problems of Post-Communism, 54(4), pp. 33-45.
12. Engvall, J. (2011), "The State as Investment Market: Kyrgyzstan in Comparative Perspective." University of Pittsburgh Press.
13. Engvall, J. (2018), “From Monopoly to Competition. Constitutions and Rent Seeking in Kyrgyzstan”. Problems of Post-Communism, 65(4), pp. 271–283.
14. Freedom House, (2023), Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2023/marking-50-years
15. Hale, H. E. (2005), "Regime Cycles: Democracy, Autocracy, and Revolution in Post-Soviet Eurasia". World Politics, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 133-165.
16. Hale, H. E. (2015), Patronal Politics: Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective. – Cambridge University Press.
17. Holland, M. (2017), Kazakhstan: The Politics of Continuity and Change. In R. J. D. H. G. (Ed.), Central Asia in the Era of the New Great Game. - London: Palgrave Macmillan.
18. Human Rights Watch. (2010), "Where is the Justice? Interethnic Violence in Southern Kyrgyzstan and its Aftermath."
19. Huskey, E. (2002), “An Economy of Authoritarianism? Askar Akayev and Presidential Leadership in Kyrgyzstan”. In S. N. Cummings (Ed.), Power and Change in Central Asia. New York: Routledge.
20. Huskey, E. (2011), Kyrgyzstan: The Fate of Political Liberalization. – Central Asian Survey, 30 (4), pp. 242–276.
21. Ibraimov, T. (2022), “Democracy 3.0. Three Republics of Modern Kyrgyzstan”. Center for Political and Legal Research. Retrieved from https://center.kg/article/468
22. Karklins, R. (2002), “Typology of Post-Communist Corruption”. Problems of Post-Communism, 49(4), pp. 22–32.
23. Kassenova, N. (2021), "Kazakhstan's Soft Authoritarianism: Elite Politics in a Post-Soviet ." Post-Soviet Affairs, 37(4), pp. 331-349.
24. Kilcullen, D. (2015), Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla. London: Hurst & Company.
25. Kuanyshbaev, A. (2021), Extremism and Terrorism in Kazakhstan: and trends. Bulletin of the Karaganda University. - V. 86, No. 2, pp. 40-59.
26. Laruelle, M. (2015), "Kazakhstan’s Nationhood Policy: Looking for an Inclusive Pattern." Journal of Eurasian Studies, 6(1), pp. 65-73
27. Laruelle, M., & Engvall, J. (Eds.). (2015), “Kyrgyzstan Beyond "Democracy Island" and "Failing ". Social and Political Changes in a Post-Soviet Society. Lexington Books.
28. Levitin, L. (2004), Liberalization in Kyrgyzstan: 'An Island of Democracy.' In Y. Ro'i (Ed.), Democracy and Pluralism in Muslim Eurasia. London: Frank Cass.
29. Marat, E. (2015), Kyrgyzstan. In Nations in Transit. New York: Freedom House.
30. Megoran, N. (2013), Nationalism in Central Asia: A Biography of the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Boundary. – Routledge.
31. Minority Rights Group International. (2023), "Kyrgyzstan: Overview." Retrieved from https://minorityrights.org/country/kyrgyzstan/.
32. Montgomery, D.W. (2016), Islam beyond Democracy and in Kyrgyzstan. Central Asian Affairs, v. 3, no. 1, pp 35-50. Myrzaliyeva, S. (2023), Language Policy in Kazakhstan in the Context of World Practice. Journal of Nationalism Memory & Language Politics, 17(1).
33. Olcott, M. B. (2010), Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
34. OSCE/ODIHR, (Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights), (2010), Kyrgyzstan’s Vibrant and Pluralistic Parliamentary Elections Constitute Further Consolidation of Democracy.
35. Pannier, B. “What the Falling Oil Prices Could Mean for Central Asia.” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 16 March 2020. https://www.rferl.org/a/analysis-do-oil-price-cuts-signal-bad-economic-times-will-return-to-central-asia-/30488141.html
36. Quincy Institute for Responsible craft. (2022), “Ethnic Divisions and Ensuring Stability in Kazakhstan: A Guide for U.S. Policy.”
37. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 15 December 2004.
38. Radnitz, S. (2020), Revealing Schemes: The Politics of Conspiracy in Russia and the Post-Soviet Region. Oxford University Press.
39. Satpayev, D. (2016), "Ethnic Policy and National Identity in Post-Soviet Kazakhstan". Central Asian Affairs, 3(2), pp 110-128.
40. Schatz, E. (2009), “The Soft Authoritarian Tool Kit: Agenda-Setting Power in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan”. Comparative Politics, 41(2), pp 203-222.
41. Seidumanov, A. S. (2018), “The Political Process in Kazakhstan at the Present Stage”. Problems of the Post-Soviet space, 5(2), pp. 181-190. https://doi.org/10.24975/2313-8920-2018-5-2-181-190
42. The Guardian. “Scepticism Grows over Kazakhstan President's Promises of Reform”, 15 January 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/15/scepticism-kazakhstan-president-promises-reform
43. Umarov, T. (2022), Kazakhstan's Snap Presidential Election: A Shot at Democratization. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2022/09/kazakhstans-snap-presidential-election-a-shot-at-democratization?lang=ru
44. Yermukanov, M, (2020). "Kazakhstan's Elite Balancing: How Nazarbayev Managed the Regional Clans." The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst.