TÜRKİYE’DE ULAŞTIRMA HARCAMALARININ DIŞ TİCARET HACMİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 2, 387 - 411, 31.12.2025

Hakan Öndes

https://doi.org/10.24889/ifede.1704760

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin stratejik coğrafi konumu ve jeopolitik önemi doğrultusunda, ulaştırma sektörünün dış ticaret performansı üzerindeki etkilerini kapsamlı biçimde analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırma, şu temel sorulara odaklanmaktadır: Türkiye’de ulaştırma harcamalarının dış ticaret hacmine etkisi nedir? Türkiye’nin ulaştırma harcamaları ile dış ticaret hacmi arasındaki ilişki nasıldır? Çalışma Türkiye ekonomisinde 1980-2024 yılları kapsamında reel döviz kuru, faiz oranı ve kukla değişkenleri içeren kontrol değişkenler ışığında ulaştırma harcamaları ve dış ticaret hacmi arasındaki ilişkiyi Fourier Otoregressif Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Model (Fourier ADL) ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi ile ele almıştır. Çalışma sonucunda her bir ulaştırma türüne ait harcamaların dış ticaret hacmini arttırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca karayolu ve denizyolu ulaştırma harcamaları ile dış ticaret hacmi arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Dış ticaret hacmindeki artış, yeni ulaştırma yöntemlerini teşvik ederek lojistik ve ulaştırma faaliyetlerini karşılıklı olarak destekleyecektir. Taşımacılık maliyetlerinin düşürülmesi ise modern sistemlerin kullanımı ve etkin tedarik zinciri yönetimine bağlıdır. Güçlü bir ulaşım altyapısı dış ticaret hacmini artıracak; bu artış taşımacılık sistemleri ve ulaşım ağlarının gelişimini hızlandıracaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ulaştırma Harcamaları , Dış Ticaret Hacmi , Fourier Zaman Serileri Analizi , Türkiye Ekonomisi

THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION EXPENDITURES ON FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME IN TURKİYE: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Öz

This study endeavors to conduct a comprehensive empirical investigation into the impact of transportation expenditures on Türkiye’s foreign trade performance, within the context of its strategic geographical positioning and geopolitical significance. The research is structured around the following core inquiries: To what extent do transportation expenditures influence Türkiye’s foreign trade volume? What is the nature and direction of the relationship between transportation investments and foreign trade dynamics? Focusing on the Turkish economy over the 1980–2024 period, the study incorporates control variables such as the real exchange rate, interest rates, and relevant dummy variables. Methodologically, it employs the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Fourier ADL) model and the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality test to capture potential structural breaks and non-linearities over time. Empirical findings indicate that expenditures across all modes of transportation exert a statistically significant positive effect on foreign trade volume. Notably, a bidirectional causal relationship is established between expenditures in road and maritime transport and foreign trade volume, suggesting mutual reinforcement. The expansion of trade volume is likely to incentivize the adoption of new and more efficient transportation modalities, thereby fostering reciprocal growth in logistics and transport sectors. Moreover, the reduction of transportation costs is contingent upon the integration of advanced technological systems and the implementation of efficient supply chain management practices. In this regard, the development of a resilient and modern transportation infrastructure emerges as a pivotal factor in enhancing Türkiye’s trade capacity, which, in turn, facilitates the evolution of sophisticated multimodal transport systems and comprehensive logistics networks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Transportation Expenditures , Foreign Trade Volume , Fourier Time Series Analysis , Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

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