THE LONG RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAXATION AND GROWTH IN TURKEY

Öz

Taxation may lead to a decrease in economic growth by distorting saving and investment incentives, but also it can increase growth by stimulating private savings through specific tax policies in line with infrastructure investments. This study investigates the effects of taxation on economic growth in Turkey in 1975-2004 by using time series analysis. In addition to total taxes, indirect taxes (goods and services tax, trade tax) and direct taxes (income tax) are analyzed separately. The results show that as total taxes/GDP, income tax/GDP and goods and services taxes/GDP increase, growth decreases in the long run. Also, interestingly, as the economy grows, income tax/GDP ratio falls and as trade taxes/GDP increase, growth increases

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Direct and Indirect Taxation, Economic Growth, Cointegration

TÜRKİYE’DE VERGİLER VE BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ UZUN DÖNEM İLİŞKİSİ

Öz

Vergiler tasarruf ve yatırım dürtülerini bozarak büyüme oranlarında bir düşüşe sebep olabileceği gibi, devletin belirli vergi politikalarıyla altyapıyı iyileştirme amaçlı yatırımlarının özel sektör yatırımlarını artırması yolu ile ekonomik büyümeyi artırabilir. Bu çalışma, zaman serisi analizi kullanarak Türkiye’de 1975-2004 yılları arasında vergilerin büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Toplam vergilerin yanı sıra, dolaylı (mal ve hizmet vergisi ve ticaret vergisi) ve dolaysız vergiler de (gelir vergisi) ayrı olarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, toplam vergiler/GSYH, gelir vergisi/GSYH, mal ve hizmet vergisi/GSYH oranları arttıkça, uzun dönemde büyüme oranının azaldığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, ilginç olarak, ekonomi büyüdükçe gelir vergisi/GSYH oranı düşmekte, ticaret vergisi/GSYH oranı arttıkça ekonomik büyüme artmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dolaylı ve Dolaysız Vergiler, Ekonomik Büyüme, Eşbütünleşme

Kaynakça

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