Uluslararası Ticaret ve İşletmecilik Bağlamında COVID-19 Pandemisi: Küresel ve Ulusal Öngörüler

Öz

COVID-19 pandemisi 1929 Dünya ekonomik buhranından beri ya-şanmış ekonomik kriz ve darboğazlardan gerek oluşturduğu ekono-mik küçülmenin boyutu gerekse ortaya çıkış ve yayılış şekli açısından benzersiz ve çok boyutlu sağlıksal, ekonomik, ticari bir bozulmaya neden olmuştur. Küresel ekonomik göstergelerin seyri ve tahmini anlamında aşırı bir belirsizlik ortamı söz konusudur. Bu belirsizlik, arz ve talebin dengeye kavuşup kavuşmadığı, parasal genişlemenin etkin sonuçlar doğurup doğurmadığı, tüketici ve üreteci güveninin yeniden tesis edilip edilmediği ve daha birçok değişkenin birlikte düzelme eğilimi içine girme ihtimalin daha zayıf görülmesinden dolayı olumsuz senaryoların daha baskın ve muhtemel bir görünüm kazanmasına neden olmaktadır. COVID-19’un etki analizlerinin lite-ratürde az sayıda çalışma ile yapıldığı ve geleceğe dönük öngörü ve önerilere daha da az yer verildiği görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada özel-likle ekonomik ve ticari anlamda tüm bu olasılıklar farklı yönleriyle değerlendirilmiş ve önerilere etraflıca yer verilerek kamu otoritesi, şirketler ve uluslararası ticaret profesyonelleri nezdinde farkındalık yaratılmaya çalışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID–19, Uluslararası Ticaret, Ekonomi

COVID-19 Pandemic in the Context of International Trade and Business: Global & National Insights

Öz

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a unique and multidimensional health, economic, commercial contraction since the world economic crisis of 1929, both in the context of the economic downturn caused by the economic crisis and bottlenecks, and the way it emerged and spread. There is an economic climate of extreme uncertainty in terms of the monitoring the inclinations and estimating of global economic indicators. This uncertainty triggers negative scenarios to appear more dominant and likely according to perceived probabilities of whether supply and demand are in balance, whether quantitative easing has effective results, whether consumer and producer confi-dence has been re-established, and the likelihood of many other vari-ables getting better together. It is reviewed that a small number of studies in literature conducted addressing the impact analyzes of COVID-19, and there is even less investigation for future predictions and suggestions. In this study, all these possibilities, especially in economic and commercial terms, were evaluated from different as-pects and the suggestions were included in detail to raise awareness among the public authorities, companies, and international trade professionals

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID–19, International Trade, Economy

Kaynakça

1. Albu, L. L., Preda, C. I., Lupu, R., Dobrotă, C. E., Călin, G. M., & Boghicevici, C. M. (2020). Estimates of Dynamics of the Covid19 Pandemic and of its Impact on the Economy. Journal for Economic Forecasting, (2), 5-17.
2. Altig, D., Baker, S., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., ... & Mizen, P. (2020). Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Econo- mics, 104274.
3. Ashford, N. A., Hall, R. P., Arango-Quiroga, J., Me- taxas, K. A., & Showalter, A. L. (2020). Addressing Inequality: The First Step Beyond COVID-19 and Towards Sustainability. Sustainability, 12(13), 5404.
4. Auer, R., Cornelli, G., & Frost, J. (2020). Rise of the cent- ral bank digital currencies: drivers, approaches and Technolo- gies. BIS Working Papers No 880. Erişim adresi: https://www.bis.org/publ/work880.pdf
5. Avgouleas, E., & Kiayias, A. (2020). The Architecture of Decentralised Finance Platforms: A New Open Finance Para- digm. Edinburgh School of Law Research Paper, (2020/16).
6. Aydın, L., & Ari, I. (2020). The impact of Covid-19 on Turkey’s non-recoverable economic sectors compensating with falling crude oil prices: A computable general equilibrium analysis. Energy Exploration & Exploitation, 0144598720934007.
7. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). Covid-induced economic uncertainty (No. w26983). National Bureau of Economic Research.
8. International Trade: Temporary Turbulence or Paradigm Shift?.

9. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 11(2), 337-342.
10. IMF. (2020). World Economic Outlook: The Great Lockdown. Washington, DC, April. Erişim adresi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04 /14/World-Economic-Outlook-April-2020-The-Great- Lockdown-49306
11. Larsen, J. R., Martin, M. R., Martin, J. D., Kuhn, P., & Hicks, J. B. (2020). Modeling the Onset of Symptoms of COVID- 19. Frontiers in Public Health, 8, 473.
12. Li, X., Segarra Roca, P., & Papaoikonomou, E. (2011). SMEs’ responses to the financial and economic crisis and policy implications: an analysis of agricultural and furniture sectors in Catalonia, Spain. Policy Studies, 32(4), 397-412.
13. Morgan Stanley. (2013, Aralık). Tales from the emer- ging world. Elections 2014: How fragile are the “Fragile Five”? Erişim adresi: https://www.morganstanley.com/public/Tales_from_the_Em erging_World_Fragile_Five.pdf
14. Moser, D. (2020). A fearful asymmetry: Covid-19 and America’s information deficit with China. The Asia-Pacific Jo- urnal Japan Focus. 18(14).
15. OECD (2020), Real GDP forecast (indicator). doi: 10.1787/1f84150b-en. Erişim tarihi: 21 Eylül 2020)
16. Paul, S. K., & Chowdhury, P. (2020). A production re- covery plan in manufacturing supply chains for a high-demand item during COVID-19. International Journal of Physical Distri- bution & Logistics Management.
17. Ratten, V. (2020). Coronavirus (Covid-19) and entrep- reneurship: cultural, lifestyle and societal changes. Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies.
18. Smallbone, D., Deakins, D., Battisti, M., & Kitching, J. (2012). Small business responses to a major economic downturn: Empirical perspectives from New Zealand and the United Kingdom. International Small Business Journal, 30(7), 754-777.
19. Song, L., & Zhou, Y. (2020). The COVID‐19 Pandemic and Its Impact on the Global Economy: What Does It Take to Turn Crisis into Opportunity?. China & World Economy, 28(4), 1-25.
20. The Federal Reserve System. (2020, Eylül). Federal Reserve press release. Erişim adresi: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monet ary20200916a1.pdf
21. U. S. Department of Labor. (2020, Ağustos). The employment situation – August 2020. Erişim adresi: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
22. Vidya, C. T., & Prabheesh, K. P. (2020). Implications of COVID-19 pandemic on the global trade networks. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2408-2421.
23. Web of Science. (2020, Eylül 15). Erişim adresi: http://wcs.webofknowledge.com/RA/analyze.do?product=W OS&SID=F4KL6beNFG5xeZ35Qnh&field=SJ_ResearchArea_Re searchArea_en&yearSort=false
24. WHO. (2020, Eylül). Weekly Operational Update on COVID-19 21 September 2020. Erişim adresi: https://www.who.int/docs/defaultsource/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200921-weekly-epiupdate-6.pdf?sfvrsn=d9cf9496_6