Türkiye'de Yurtiçi Özel Tasarruf Davranışının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri 2004-2018

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 21, 413 - 436, 01.01.2020

Musa Atgür

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de 2004-2018 dönemi için yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışının makroekonomik belirleyicilerini incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Bu amaçla çalışmada ekonometrik yöntem olarak Johansen eşbütünleşme testi, tam modifiye edilmiş sıradan en küçük kareler tahmin yöntemleri ile birlikte vektör hata düzeltme modeli tahmininden hareketle Granger Nedensellik test yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Tam modifiye edilmiş sıradan en küçük kareler tahmin sonuçları reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla GSYİH , özel tüketim harcamaları, enflasyon oranı ve reel faiz oranının yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışının makroekonomik belirleyicileri olduğunu göstermiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye'de reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla GSYİH , enflasyon oranı ve reel faiz oranı yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışını pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermiş, özel tüketim harcamaları ise negatif etkilemektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar, hem Klasik İktisadın tasarruf kuramını hem Keynesyen İktisadın tasarruf kuramını desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye, yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışı, makroekonomi, belirleyici.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Domestic Private Savings Behavior in Turkey 2004-2018

Öz

This study aimed to examine macroeconomic determinants of domestic private saving behavior in Turkey for the period 2004-2018. For this purpose as the econometric method, Johansen cointegration test and full modified ordinary least squares estimation methods along with the vector error correction model estimation Granger Causality test methods were used. Both the full modified ordinary least squares estimation results showed that the real gross domestic product GDP , private consumption expenditures, inflation rate and real interest rate are macroeconomic determinants of domestic private saving behavior. The findings showed that the real gross domestic product GSYİH , inflation rate and real interest rate positively affect domestic private saving behavior. Private consumption expenditures affect negatively. These results support both savings of the theory of classical economics and the theory of savings of Keynesian economics in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turkey, domestic private savings behavior, macroeconomy, determinant.

Kaynakça

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