Geostatistical evaluation of the impact of climate variability on malaria incidence In the South-West of Nigeria

Öz

Malaria remains a significant health concern in Nigeria, particularly in the South-West region. This study assesses the impact of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence and prevalence in South-West Nigeria using remotely sensed and modelled data sourced from the Malaria Atlas Project and NASA's POWER database covering 2000 to 2020. The study adopts the Geographically Weighted Regression geostatistical model to establish the relationship between malaria and rainfall and temperature in the study area. The result shows a rising oscillating annual mean temperature trend of 0.0088oC/yr-1 from 2000 to 2020. The malaria incidence exceeds 8 million cases annually, peaking in 2020 at almost 10 million cases. The rising trend of malaria incidence highlights the inadequacy of the malaria intervention programmes to meet their goal of reducing malaria incidence by 40% by 2020. The study highlights the spatial variations, with high incidence in urban centres like Lagos and Ibadan metropolises, their satellite towns, as well as other prominent and capital towns including Oshogbo, Ilesa, Akure, Ijebu-Ode and Abeokuta. Contrary to this, the greater malaria prevalence was recorded in less densely populated areas of Oyo state, Imeko-Afon, Odeda, Yewa and Ijebu-Waterside areas in Ogun state as well as Ose and Idanre in Ondo state. The Geographically Weighted Regression equation model shows a strong positive correlation between malaria prevalence and temperature at a significance of 0.76 compared to rainfall which exhibits no association indicating the relevance of temperature as an explanatory indicator of malaria. With the continuous endemicity of malaria in the South-West, malaria management and control efforts should be focused on high-incidence areas in the South-West and Nigeria in general to fulfil the Sustainable Development Goal of Good health and well-being and the eradication of malaria by 2030.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate Variability
• Geostatistics
• Malaria Incidence
• Malaria Prevalence
• Rainfall
• South-West
• Temperature

Kaynakça

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