Determinants of Freight Rates: A Study on the Baltic Dry Index

Öz

The aim of this study is to find out the determinants of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which is published by the Baltic Exchange in the period of 2003-2016 by a multiple OLS regression analysis.  For this purpose, the most important factors that are considered to have an impact on BDI, are analysed by the help of E-views 9.0 program thereby establishing optimum model. Empirical findings indicate that phosphate rock and barley have the highest impact on BDI. Additionally, the results of the analysis also showed that, while crude oil prices which is the core cost factor has positive effect on the BDI, cement and maize prices have  significant but negative effects. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Baltic Dry Index,Freight Rates,Freight Rates,Main Bulks,Multiple Regression (OLS) Analysis,Seaborne Trade

Navlun Fiyatlarına Etki Eden Faktörler: Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi Üzerine Bir Çalışma

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Baltık Borsası tarafından yayınlanan Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi’ne etki eden faktörlerin tespit edilmesidir.2003-2016 dönemine ilişkin verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada endekse etkisi araştırılan en önemli faktörler çoklu regresyon analizi yöntemi ile E-views 9.0 programı kullanılarak ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre fosfat kaya ile arpa fiyatlarında yaşanan değişimler Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi’ne etki eden en önemli faktörlerdir. Bununla birlikte, sektörün temel maliyet unsuru olan ham petrol fiyatlarının Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkisinin çimento ve mısır fiyatlarındaki değişimin ise negatif yönlü bir etkilerinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi,Navlun Fiyatları,Temel Yükler,Çoklu Regresyon Analizi,Denizyolu Ticareti

Kaynakça

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