Analysis of Internal Migration to Istanbul: Gravity Model Approach

Öz

Istanbul, as it was in the past, is still an important magnet for immigrants. However, it is seen that the internal migration to Istanbul has decreased in recent years. Even though the studies show similar economic and social factors-put forth by migration literature are valid for Turkey, there are doubts about whether these factors are being investigated with appropriate techniques. The gravity model that is used for investigating internal migration is a logarithmic linear model. Some studies have revealed that the logarithmic transformation causes some problems in theoretically. These problems cannot be solved by conventional estimation methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use Poisson estimators for overcoming this problem. The aim of this study is to investigate the internal migration to Istanbul with the help of various estimation techniques. The findings show that the PPML estimator is a more proper method to estimate the gravity model than the traditional least squares and panel estimators. While the results obtained by standard methods showed that the relative unemployment factor significantly increased the migration to Istanbul, the PPML results show that the relative unemployment did not have a significant effect on the explanation of the internal migration to Istanbul.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Internal Migration,Gravity Model,PPML,Panel Data Analysis,Labor Market,Istanbul

İstanbul’a Yönelik İç Göçün Analizi: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı

Öz

İstanbul, geçmişte olduğu gibi günümüzde de önemli bir çekim merkezidir. Ancak, son yıllarda İstanbul’a olan iç göçün azaldığı görülmektedir. Çalışmalar, göç literatürü tarafından ortaya konulan benzer ekonomik ve sosyal faktörlerin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu gösterse de, bu faktörlerin uygun tekniklerle ile araştırılması noktasında şüpheler bulunmaktadır. İç göçü araştırmak için kullanılan çekim modeli logaritmik doğrusal bir modeldir. Yapılan bazı çalışmalar logaritmik dönüşümün teorik olarak bazı sorunlara neden olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu sorunlar geleneksel tahmin yöntemleriyle düzeltilememektedir. Dolayısıyla bu sorunun üstesinden gelmek için Poisson tahmincilerinin kullanılması önerilmektedir. Bu çalışmada çeşitli tahmin teknikleri yardımıyla İstanbul’a yönelik iç göçün araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular PPML tahmincisinin geleneksel en küçük kareler ve panel tahmincilerine göre, çekim modelinin tahmini için daha uygun olduğunu göstermektedir. Standart yöntemlerle elde edilen sonuçlar göreli işsizlik faktörünün İstanbul’a yönelik göçü anlamlı bir şekilde arttırdığını gösterirken, PPML sonuçları göreli işsizliğin İstanbul’a yönelik iç göçü açıklamada anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olmadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İç göç,Çekim Modeli,PPML,Panel Veri Analizi,İşgücü Piyasası,İstanbul

Kaynakça

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