Impact of International Bond Market on the Economy; The Case of G7 Countries

Öz

Historical process in most of the countries shows that the opportunities provided by the financial system are strongly efficient in the development of a country. In this development, especially in today's financial system, the acceleration of the development of the bond market may provide an important break for the growth of the economy. In this study, we will try to measure this impact. For this aim, we will evaluate the bond market in terms of the government and private sector within the international framework. We will evaluate the data of G7 countries in a comparative analysis. In the research, GDP dependent variable, international government bonds and international private sector bonds were selected as independent variables. Data's of this study based on 2000Q1-2017Q4 databases and we performed two-stage on it. Due to the seasonal, limited and long term data’s, we examine the ARDL model which based on Pesaran and Shin (1999) theory.  For short-term analysis, we used VAR-Granger-Causality (Block Exogeneity Wald Tests) model. As a result, the international bond development of G7 countries did not contribute to the national economy in the short term; but long-term this contribution was efficient into the economy, except Japan and the United Kingdom.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth,Financial System,Bond Market,International Government Bond Stock,International Private Sector Bond Stock,G7 Countries

Uluslararası Tahvil Piyasasının Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi; G7 Ülkeleri Örneği

Öz

Tarih sürecinde finansal sistemin sağladığı avantajlar, ülke gelişimine katkı sağladığını göstermektedir. Ülkelerin bu gelişiminde özellikle günümüzün finansal sisteminde, tahvil piyasasının gelişiminin hızlanması, ekonominin büyümesinde önemli olanak sağlamaktadır. Biz bu çalışmada bu etkiyi ölçmek için tahvil piyasasını uluslararası boyutu içerisinde devlet ve özel sektör bazında değerlendireceğiz. Çalışmada G7 ülkelerinin verilerini karşılaştırmalı bir analiz çerçevesinde değerlendirdik. Araştırmada GSYİH bağımlı değişken ve uluslararası devlet tahvili ve uluslararası özel sektör tahvili, bağımsız değişkenler olarak seçilmiştir. Veriler 2000Q1-2017Q4 dayanmaktadır ve iki aşamalı değerlendirme yapılmıştır. İlk aşamada verilerin mevsimsel olması ve kısıtlı, uzun dönem analiz gerektirmesinden dolayı, Pesaran ve Shin (1999), tarafından geliştirilen Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Kısa dönem analizi için VAR-Granger-Causality (Block Exogeneity Wald Tests) analizi kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak G7 ülkeleri uluslararası tahvil gelişimi kısa dönemde ülke ekonomisine katkı sağlamamıştır ama uzun dönemde, Japonya ve İngiltere hariç, ekonomiye katkıda bulunmuştur. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomi Büyüme,Finansal Sistem,Tahvil Piyasası,Uluslararası Devlet Tahvil Stoku,Uluslararası Özel Sektör Tahvil Stoku,G7 Ülkeleri

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