Sensitivity of Turkey's Economy in the Context of Secular Stagnation

Öz

The theory of secular stagnation was first used in 1939 by Alvin Hansen in reference to the American economy during the Great Depression. After the seventy years after Hansen's theory, the global crisis and the subsequent developments that occurred after it brought the issue of permanent stagnation back to the agenda. After the global crisis the advanced countries growth rate drastically declined and thereafter these countries has been suffering secular stagnation. Also, the economic crisis that began in 2008 in the financial markets of the advanced economies has spread, in a variety of ways, into developing countries. In this study, the effect of growth in advanced countries on Turkish growth rate is examined by vector auto regression (VAR) model, Impulse-Response functions and variance decomposition analysis. The model which consists of US growth rate, Europe growth rate, Japan growth and Turkey growth rate is estimated for the period of 1980-2019. According to the results of the analysis European countries growth affects Turkey more than the US growth and the impact from Japan is found to be limited.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Secular Stagnation
• Growth
• Crisis
• Impulse Response Analyses
• Variance Decomposition

Seküler Stagnasyon Bağlamında Gelişmiş Ülkelerdeki Ekonomik Büyümenin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkisi

Öz

Seküler stagnasyon teorisi ilk olarak 1939 yılında Alvin Hansen tarafından Büyük Buhran sırasında Amerikan ekonomisinin durumunu ortaya koymak amacı ile geliştirilmiştir. Hansen'in teorisinden yetmiş yıl sonra küresel kriz ve sonrasında meydana gelen gelişmeler nedeniyle teori tekrar gündeme gelmiştir. Küresel krizden sonra gelişmiş ülkelerin büyüme hızı büyük ölçüde düşerek seküler (kalıcı) durgunluğa maruz kalmıştır. 2008 yılında gelişmiş ekonomilerin finansal piyasalarında başlayan ekonomik kriz çeşitli şekillerde gelişmekte olan ülkelere yayılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, gelişmiş ekonomilerdeki büyümenin Türkiye büyüme hızı üzerindeki etkisi, VAR modeli, Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonları ve Varyans Ayrıştırma yöntemi ile ampirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. ABD büyüme hızı, Avrupa büyüme hızı, Japonya büyüme hızı ve Türkiye büyüme hızı değişkenlerinden oluşan model, 1980-2019 dönemi için tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Avrupa ekonomik büyümesi, Türk ekonomisini ABD büyümesinden daha fazla etkilemektedir. Japonya ekonomik büyümesi etkisinin ise sınırlı olduğu görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Seküler Stagnasyon
• Büyüme
• Kriz
• Etki Tepki Analizi
• Varyans Ayrıştırma

Kaynakça

1. ACEMOGLU, D., & RESTREPO, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the Age of Automation. MIT Department of Economics Working Paper Series, Working Paper 17-02.
2. AKÇORAOĞLU, A. (2018). Küresel stagnasyon ve iktisadi stagnasyon teorilerinin karşılaştırmalı analizi, Sosyoekonomi, 26(35), 87-118.
3. AKSOY, Y., BASSO, H. S., GRASL, T., & SMITH, R. P. (2019). Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, (11), 193–222.
4. BACKHOUSE, R.E. & BOIANOVSKY M. (2015). Secular Stagnation: The history of a macroeconomic heresy, The Blanqui Lecture (Meetings of the European Society for the History of Economic Thought, Rome, 14 May 2015).
5. BELKE, A. & KLOSE, J. (2017). Equilibrium real interest rates and secular stagnation: An empirical analysis for euro area member countries, JCMS, 55(6), 1221-1238.
6. BORIO, C. (2014). The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt? Journal of Banking & Finance, (45), 182–198.
7. BORIO, C., DISYATAT, P. & JUSELIUS, M., (2017), Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle, Oxford Economic Papers, 3(1), 655-677.
8. CARVALHO, C., FERRERO, A., & NECHIO, F. (2016). Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism. European Economic Review, (88), 208–226.

9. DICKEY, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for an autoregressi and time series with a unit root, Econometrica, (49), 1057-1072.
10. DADUSH, U. (2016). Should developing countries fear secular stagnation? OCP Policy Center, Policy Paper PP-16/10.
11. ENDERS, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series: Wiley series in probability and statistic. New York: John Wiley Inc.
12. GARREC, L. G. & TOUZÉ, V. (2018). Macroeconomic in the age of secular stagnation, Sciences Po Publications, 157(2018), 69-92.
13. GORDON, R. J. (2014). The turtle's progress: Secular stagnation meets the headwinds, Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures Edited by Coen Teulings & Richard Baldwin, CEPR Press.
14. FAVERO, C. A., GOZKULU, A. E., & Yan, H. (2016). Demographics and the behavior of interest rates. IMF Economic Review, 64, 732–776.
15. FERRERO, G. & Gross, Marco; Neri, Stefano (2019), On secular stagnation and low interest rates: Demography matters, International Finance, (2019), 1–17.
16. HANSEN A. (1939). Economic progress and declining population growth, The American Economic Review,29(1), 1-15.
17. KRUGMAN, P. (2013), Secular stagnation, coalmines, bubbles, and larry summers, The New York Times blog, Erişim tarihi: 20.10.2019 https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/secular-stagnation-coalmines-bubbles-and-larry-summers/
18. KRUGMAN, P. (2014). Four observations on secular stagnation, Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures Edited by Coen Teulings & Richard Baldwin, CEPR Press.
19. MEHRLING, P. (1997). The money ınterest and the public ınterest: American monetary thought, 1920-1970. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass.
20. NIKENSARI, S. I., SANTOSA P.B. & SUGIYANTO F.X. (2019). Economic stagnation in emerging market countries: Should this justify Keynes's law? International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 12(3), 299-314.
21. OECD (2019), Potential gross domestic product (GDP), Erişim tarihi: 13.10.2019. https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2094
22. ÖZER, M. & ERDOĞAN, L. (2006). Türkiye’de ihracat, ithalat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkilerin analizi. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 17(60-61), 93-110.
23. PHILIPS P.C.B. & PERRON, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
24. POPOVIĆ, M. (2018). Technological progress, globalization, and secular stagnation, Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, (1), 59-100.
25. PROBST, J. (2019). Secular stagnation: It’s time to admit that larry summers was right about this global economic growth trap, Erişim tarihi: 29.09.2019 https://theconversation.com/secular-stagnation-its-time-to-admit-that-larry-summers-was-right-about-this-global-economic-growth-trap-112977
26. ROGOFF, K. (2015). Debt supercycle, not secular stagnation. Erişim tarihi: 20.10.2019, https://voxeu.org/article/debt-supercycle-not-secular-stagnation. VOX CEPR Policy Portal
27. SUMMERS, H. L. (2013). Why stagnation might prove to be the new normal, Erişim tarihi: 17.10.2019. https://www.ft.com/content/87cb15ea-5d1a-11e3-a558-00144feabdc0
28. SUMMERS, H. L. (2014a). US economic prospects: Secular stagnation, hysteresis, and the zero lower bound. Business Economics, 49(2), 65-73.
29. SUMMERS, H. L. (2014b). Refections on the new secular stagnation hypothesis. Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures Edited by Coen Teulings & Richard Baldwin, CEPR Press.
30. SUMMERS, H. L. (2016). The age of secular stagnation what ıt ıs and what to do about it. Foreign Affairs, March/April 2016, 1-9.
31. TARI, R. & BOZKURT, H. (2006). Türkiye’de istikrarsız büyümenin var modelleri ile analizi (1991.1-2004.3), Ekonometri ve İstatistik, (4), 12-28.
32. TATOĞLU, F. Y. (2017), Panel zaman serileri analizi, Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul.
33. TAYLOR, T. (2013), Secular stagnation: Back to Alvin Hansen, Erişim tarihi: 25.09.2019. http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2013/12/secular-stagnation-back-to-alvin-hanson.html
34. TAYLOR G. & TYERS R. (2017) Secular stagnation: Determinants and consequences for Australia. Econ Rec 93(303):615–650.
35. TEULINGS, C. & BALDWIN, R. (2014). Secular stagnation: Facts, causes and cures, Edited by Coen Teulings & Richard Baldwin, CEPR Press.
36. TÜRKAY, M. & RASGELENER, A. M. (2015). Türkiye’nin büyümesinin küresel ekonomiye duyarlılığı, T.C. Başbakanlık Hazine Müsteşarlığı Çalışma Raporları, Sayı: 2015-2.
37. HUIDROM, R., KOSE, M. A., & OHNSORGE, F. (2017). How ımportant are spillovers from major emerging markets? CAMA Working Paper 37/2017.