Araştırma Makalesi
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Impact of International Bond Market on the Economy; The Case of G7 Countries

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 - GELİŞİM-UWE 2019 Özel Sayısı, 94 - 122, 29.10.2019
https://doi.org/10.17336/igusbd.618201

Öz

Historical process in most of the countries shows that the opportunities provided by the financial system are strongly efficient in the development of a country. In this development, especially in today's financial system, the acceleration of the development of the bond market may provide an important break for the growth of the economy. In this study, we will try to measure this impact. For this aim, we will evaluate the bond market in terms of the government and private sector within the international framework. We will evaluate the data of G7 countries in a comparative analysis. In the research, GDP dependent variable, international government bonds and international private sector bonds were selected as independent variables. Data's of this study based on 2000Q1-2017Q4 databases and we performed two-stage on it. Due to the seasonal, limited and long term data’s, we examine the ARDL model which based on Pesaran and Shin (1999) theory.  For short-term analysis, we used VAR-Granger-Causality (Block Exogeneity Wald Tests) model. As a result, the international bond development of G7 countries did not contribute to the national economy in the short term; but long-term this contribution was efficient into the economy, except Japan and the United Kingdom.

Kaynakça

  • DEIDDA, L. G. (2006), Interaction between economic and financial development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53: 233-248.
  • DEMIRGÜ-Kun, A., LEVINE, R., (2001), Financial Structure And Economic Growth: A Cros-Country Comparison Of Banks, Market and Devleopment. MIT Press.
  • FINK, G., HAISS, P., HRISTOOROVA, S, (2003), Bond Market and Economik Growth, IEF Working Paper, No: 49, PP:1-39
  • GOLSMISH, R. W., (1969), Financial Struture And Develeopment As a Subjekt For International Comparative Study, National Bureau of Economic Research, 5,09,2018, https://www.nber.org/chapters/c4417.pdf, PP: 114-123
  • GRAFF, M., (2001), Financial Development and Economic Growth – New Data and Emperical Analysis, METU Studies in Development, No: 28, 83-110
  • GURLLEY, J.G., SHOW, E.S., (1955), Financial Aspects Of Economic Develeopent, The American Economic Review, 45(4), PP. 515-538
  • GÜRDAL, T., YAVUZ, H., (2015), Türkiye’de İç Borçlanma- Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1990-2012 dönemi Analizi, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırma Dergisi, 11(1), 117-130
  • HERMES, N., LENSINK, R., (2000), Financial System Develeopment in Transition Economies, Journal Of Banking And Finance , No:24, 2000, 507-524
  • KENOURGOIS, D., SAMITAS, A., (2007), Financial Development and Economik Growth in Transition Economy: Evidence For Poland, Journal Of Financial Decision Making, Vol:3, NO: 1,
  • KING, R., G., LEVINE, R., (1993), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.108, No:3, PP. 717-737
  • LEVINE, R., LOAYZA, N., BECK, T., (2000), Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes, Journal Of Monetary Economics, NO:46, 31-77
  • LEVINE, R., ZERVOS, S., (1996), Stock market devleopment and long-run Growth, World Bank, Policy Reserch Working Paper 1582,
  • LUCAS, R. E. (1988): “On the mechanics of economic development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3–42.
  • MASSA. M., ZALDOKAS, A., (2014), “Investor Base And Corprate Borrowing: Evidence From International Bonds”, Journal Of International Economics, No: 92, PP: 95-110.
  • MCKINNON, R., I., (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development, (Washington: The Brookings Institution).
  • PRADHAN, R. P., ZAKI, D.B, MARADANA, R. P., DASH, S, JAYAKUMAR, M., CHATTERJEE, D. (2015), Bond Market Development and Economic Growth: The G-20 Experience, Tekhne, No: 40, PP: 1-15
  • PAGANO, M. (1993), “Financial markets and growth: an overview”, European Economic Review, 37(2–3), 613–622
  • PAPAIOANNOU, E., (2007), Finance and Growth a Macro Ekonomic Assesment Of The Evidence From A Earupean Angle, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series No: 787
  • PATRICK, H., (1966), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdevelopment Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol(14), 174-189
  • PESARAN, M., H., SHIN, Y., SMITH, R., J., (2001), Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics. 16: 289 – 326 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jae.616
  • PESARAN, M.,H., SHIN, Y., (1998), An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, Econometric Society Monographs, No:31, 371-413
  • ROBINSON, J. (1952) The Generalisation of the General Theory, in the Rate of Interest, and Other Essays. 2nd Edition, Macmillan, London.
  • SCHUMPETER, J., A., (1911), The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University Prees, Cambridge
  • THUMRONGVITE, P., Kim Y., Pyun, C. S., (2013), “Linking The Missing Market: The Effect Of Bond Markets On Economic Growth”, International Review of Economics And Finance, Vol: 27, P.529-541
  • TREW, A. W.,(2005), Finance and Growth: A Ciritical Survey, Centre For Dynamic Macroeconomic Analaysis Working Paper Series, CDMA05 / 07,
  • ZAHEDUL ISLAM CHROWDHURY, S.M., BAYAR, Y., KILIÇ, C., (2013), “Başlıca Makro Ekonomik Göstergelerin Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi IIBF Dergisi, 15(2), S: 15-30
  • BIS, Bank For International Settlements, 25,07,2018, https://www.bis.org/
  • The World Bank,18,08,2018, https://www.worldbank.org/

Uluslararası Tahvil Piyasasının Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi; G7 Ülkeleri Örneği

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 - GELİŞİM-UWE 2019 Özel Sayısı, 94 - 122, 29.10.2019
https://doi.org/10.17336/igusbd.618201

Öz

Tarih sürecinde finansal sistemin sağladığı avantajlar, ülke gelişimine katkı sağladığını göstermektedir. Ülkelerin bu gelişiminde özellikle günümüzün finansal sisteminde, tahvil piyasasının gelişiminin hızlanması, ekonominin büyümesinde önemli olanak sağlamaktadır. Biz bu çalışmada bu etkiyi ölçmek için tahvil piyasasını uluslararası boyutu içerisinde devlet ve özel sektör bazında değerlendireceğiz. Çalışmada G7 ülkelerinin verilerini karşılaştırmalı bir analiz çerçevesinde değerlendirdik. Araştırmada GSYİH bağımlı değişken ve uluslararası devlet tahvili ve uluslararası özel sektör tahvili, bağımsız değişkenler olarak seçilmiştir. Veriler 2000Q1-2017Q4 dayanmaktadır ve iki aşamalı değerlendirme yapılmıştır. İlk aşamada verilerin mevsimsel olması ve kısıtlı, uzun dönem analiz gerektirmesinden dolayı, Pesaran ve Shin (1999), tarafından geliştirilen Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Kısa dönem analizi için VAR-Granger-Causality (Block Exogeneity Wald Tests) analizi kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak G7 ülkeleri uluslararası tahvil gelişimi kısa dönemde ülke ekonomisine katkı sağlamamıştır ama uzun dönemde, Japonya ve İngiltere hariç, ekonomiye katkıda bulunmuştur. 

Kaynakça

  • DEIDDA, L. G. (2006), Interaction between economic and financial development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53: 233-248.
  • DEMIRGÜ-Kun, A., LEVINE, R., (2001), Financial Structure And Economic Growth: A Cros-Country Comparison Of Banks, Market and Devleopment. MIT Press.
  • FINK, G., HAISS, P., HRISTOOROVA, S, (2003), Bond Market and Economik Growth, IEF Working Paper, No: 49, PP:1-39
  • GOLSMISH, R. W., (1969), Financial Struture And Develeopment As a Subjekt For International Comparative Study, National Bureau of Economic Research, 5,09,2018, https://www.nber.org/chapters/c4417.pdf, PP: 114-123
  • GRAFF, M., (2001), Financial Development and Economic Growth – New Data and Emperical Analysis, METU Studies in Development, No: 28, 83-110
  • GURLLEY, J.G., SHOW, E.S., (1955), Financial Aspects Of Economic Develeopent, The American Economic Review, 45(4), PP. 515-538
  • GÜRDAL, T., YAVUZ, H., (2015), Türkiye’de İç Borçlanma- Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1990-2012 dönemi Analizi, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırma Dergisi, 11(1), 117-130
  • HERMES, N., LENSINK, R., (2000), Financial System Develeopment in Transition Economies, Journal Of Banking And Finance , No:24, 2000, 507-524
  • KENOURGOIS, D., SAMITAS, A., (2007), Financial Development and Economik Growth in Transition Economy: Evidence For Poland, Journal Of Financial Decision Making, Vol:3, NO: 1,
  • KING, R., G., LEVINE, R., (1993), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.108, No:3, PP. 717-737
  • LEVINE, R., LOAYZA, N., BECK, T., (2000), Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes, Journal Of Monetary Economics, NO:46, 31-77
  • LEVINE, R., ZERVOS, S., (1996), Stock market devleopment and long-run Growth, World Bank, Policy Reserch Working Paper 1582,
  • LUCAS, R. E. (1988): “On the mechanics of economic development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3–42.
  • MASSA. M., ZALDOKAS, A., (2014), “Investor Base And Corprate Borrowing: Evidence From International Bonds”, Journal Of International Economics, No: 92, PP: 95-110.
  • MCKINNON, R., I., (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development, (Washington: The Brookings Institution).
  • PRADHAN, R. P., ZAKI, D.B, MARADANA, R. P., DASH, S, JAYAKUMAR, M., CHATTERJEE, D. (2015), Bond Market Development and Economic Growth: The G-20 Experience, Tekhne, No: 40, PP: 1-15
  • PAGANO, M. (1993), “Financial markets and growth: an overview”, European Economic Review, 37(2–3), 613–622
  • PAPAIOANNOU, E., (2007), Finance and Growth a Macro Ekonomic Assesment Of The Evidence From A Earupean Angle, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series No: 787
  • PATRICK, H., (1966), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdevelopment Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol(14), 174-189
  • PESARAN, M., H., SHIN, Y., SMITH, R., J., (2001), Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics. 16: 289 – 326 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jae.616
  • PESARAN, M.,H., SHIN, Y., (1998), An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, Econometric Society Monographs, No:31, 371-413
  • ROBINSON, J. (1952) The Generalisation of the General Theory, in the Rate of Interest, and Other Essays. 2nd Edition, Macmillan, London.
  • SCHUMPETER, J., A., (1911), The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University Prees, Cambridge
  • THUMRONGVITE, P., Kim Y., Pyun, C. S., (2013), “Linking The Missing Market: The Effect Of Bond Markets On Economic Growth”, International Review of Economics And Finance, Vol: 27, P.529-541
  • TREW, A. W.,(2005), Finance and Growth: A Ciritical Survey, Centre For Dynamic Macroeconomic Analaysis Working Paper Series, CDMA05 / 07,
  • ZAHEDUL ISLAM CHROWDHURY, S.M., BAYAR, Y., KILIÇ, C., (2013), “Başlıca Makro Ekonomik Göstergelerin Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi IIBF Dergisi, 15(2), S: 15-30
  • BIS, Bank For International Settlements, 25,07,2018, https://www.bis.org/
  • The World Bank,18,08,2018, https://www.worldbank.org/
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Asef Yelghı 0000-0003-0683-7218

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Ekim 2019
Kabul Tarihi 26 Ekim 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 6 - GELİŞİM-UWE 2019 Özel Sayısı

Kaynak Göster

APA Yelghı, A. (2019). Uluslararası Tahvil Piyasasının Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi; G7 Ülkeleri Örneği. İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6, 94-122. https://doi.org/10.17336/igusbd.618201

Creative Commons Lisansı
İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari-Türetilemez 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı ile lisanslanmıştır.