Rusya Ukrayna Savaşı’nın Küresel Güvenliğe Etkileri: Realist Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 2, 681 - 698, 29.12.2025

Yunus Emre Karaca

https://doi.org/10.21180/iibfdkastamonu.1658151

https://izlik.org/JA58GA77YT

Öz

Bu çalışma Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yı topyekûn işgal etmesinin küresel güvenliği ne derecede etkilediğini realizmin merceğinden açıklama getirmeye çalışmaktadır. Çalışma Rusya Ukrayna arasındaki çatışmayı realizm üzerinden analiz ederek hem teorik hem de savaşın küresel güvenliğe etkilerinin detaylı bir incelemesini ele alarak Türkçe literatüre katkı sağlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yı işgal etme nedenlerine birey düzeyinden analiz edenler Putin’in Rus imparatorluğunu yeniden canlandırma hırsına bağlarken, uluslararası sistem düzeyinden açıklama getirenler savaşın sorumluluğunu Soğuk Savaş sonrası düzende Batı’nın NATO’yu ve AB’yi doğuya doğru genişletme çabalarının bir sonucu olarak değerlendirmektedir. İster bireysel isterse de sistemsel faktörler savaşa neden olsun, Ukrayna’daki savaş yalnızca Avrupa’nın güvenliğini değil Hint-Pasifik’e kadar kürenin diğer bölgelerindeki güvenliği tehdit eden geniş etkilere sahiptir. Uluslararası sistemde ABD’nin maddi gücünün zayıflaması ve Çin’in rakip bir güç olarak yükselişi sistemin tek kutuplu yapısını etkilemiştir. Günümüz uluslararası sistemin mevcut yapısını ne tek kutuplu ne çok kutuplu ne de iki kutuplu olarak betimleyebiliriz. Diğer bir ifadeyle uluslararası sistemin yapısı belirsizliğini korumaktadır. Fakat Ukrayna’da devam eden çatışma uluslararası sistemin şekillenmesine önemli derecede etkide bulunmaktadır. Ukrayna’daki savaş ABD liderliğindeki Batılı değerleri benimsemiş liberal ülkelerle, Rusya, Çin, Kuzey Kore ve İran gibi otokratik ülkeler arasındaki ideolojik fay hatlarını keskinleştirmektedir. Ukrayna’daki savaş on yıllardır Batı ve Rusya arasında tarafsız kalan Baltık ülkelerini NATO savunma ittifakına katılmaya teşvik ederek Avrupa’daki güvenliği yeniden şekillendirmiştir. Rusya Ukrayna arasındaki çatışma küresel ölçekte devletlerin savunma harcamalarını yükseltmesine, silahlanma yarışına ve Soğuk Savaş’tan bu yana nükleer silah kullanma tehditlerinin artmasına kadar güvenlik bunalımlarına neden olmaktadır. Elde edilen bu bulgulara göre Ukrayna’daki savaşın uzamasının ve kalıcı barış ve çözüm bulunamamasının, küresel güvenliğe her geçen gün tonu artan bir şekilde önemli bir tehdit oluşturacağı ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küresel Güvenlik , Realizm , Rusya Ukrayna Savaşı

The Effects of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Security: A Realistic Perspective

https://izlik.org/JA58GA77YT

Öz

This study explains to what extent Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has affected global security through the lens of realism. It aims to contribute to Turkish literature by analyzing the Russia–Ukraine conflict both theoretically and by examining in detail the war’s effects on global security. Analysts at the individual level often link Russia’s invasion to Putin’s ambition to revive the Russian empire, while system-level explanations emphasize Western efforts to expand NATO and the EU eastward in the post-Cold War order. Regardless of whether individual or systemic factors are more decisive, the war has broad effects that threaten not only European security but also security in other regions, including the Indo-Pacific. The weakening of US material power and the rise of China as a rival have eroded the unipolar structure, leaving today’s international system neither clearly unipolar, multipolar nor bipolar. In this uncertain context, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine significantly shapes the international system. It sharpens ideological fault lines between liberal states that embrace Western values, led by the United States, and autocratic states such as Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. The war has reshaped European security by encouraging states that remained neutral between the West and Russia for decades, such as Finland and Sweden, to join the NATO defense alliance. The conflict has triggered global security crises, including rising defense spending, a new arms race and the most serious nuclear threats since the Cold War. Its prolongation and the absence of a lasting peace will increasingly endanger global security.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Global Security , Realism , Russia Ukraine War

Kaynakça

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