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Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişim, Parasal Göstergeler, Enflasyon ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 1 - 11, 30.03.2021

Öz

Küreselleşmeyle beraber artan uluslararası entegrasyon hareketleri, ülke makroekonomik performansını etkileyen değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü doğru belirlemeyi gerekli kılmaktadır. Dışa açık ekonomilerde özellikle enerji girdisi olarak kullanılan petrol, pek çok makroekonomik gösterge ile ilişkilendirilmekte ve politika yapıcıları birtakım kararlar almak durumunda bırakmaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada petrol ithalatçısı ülkelerden biri olan Türkiye’de alınan para politikası kararları, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme göstergelerindeki değişimlerin, ham petrol fiyatları ile ilintisi incelenmektedir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi aylık 2006:01-2020:01 verileri kullanılarak ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile sınanırken yine değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Abeysinghe, T. (2001). Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth. Economics letters, 73(2), 147-153.
  • Acosta, P. A., Lartey, E. K., & Mandelman, F. S. (2009). Remittances and the Dutch disease. Journal of international economics, 79(1), 102-116.
  • Aimer, N. M. M., & Moftah, M. (2016). The effects of fluctuations of oil price on economic growth of Libya. Energy Economics Letters, 3(2), 17-29.
  • Bala, Umar, Chin, L., Kaliappan, S. R., & Ismail, N. W. (2017), The Impact of Financial Development, Oil Price on Economic Growth in African OPEC Members. Editorial Board, 16.
  • Bachmeier, L. (2008). Monetary Policy and The Transmission Of Oil Shocks. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(4), 1738-1755.
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., and Watson M. (1997). Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects Oil Price Shocks, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1: 91–142.
  • Berument, M. H., Basak, N. and Dogan, N. (2010). The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries, Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-175.
  • Bouri, E., Kachacha, I., & Roubaud, D. (2020). Oil Market Conditions And Sovereign Risk in MENA Oil Exporters and Importers. Energy Policy, 137, 111073.
  • Brown, Stephen P.A., Yücel, Mine K. ve Thompson, John (2002). Business Cycles: The Role of Energy Prices, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Paper, 0304.
  • Corden, W. M. (1984). Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey And Consolidation. Oxford Economic Papers, 36(3), 359-380.
  • Farzanegan, M. R. and Markwardt, G. (2009). The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy. Energy Economics, 31(1), 134-151.
  • Filis, G., & Chatziantoniou, I. (2014). Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 42(4), 709-729.
  • Ftiti, Z., Guesmi, K., Teulon, F., & Chouachi, S. (2016). Relationship Between Crude Oil Prices And Economic Growth In Selected OPEC Countries. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 32(1), 11-22.
  • Ghalayini, L. (2011). The Interaction Between Oil Price and Economic Growth. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 13(21), 127-141. Girginer, N., ve Yenilmez, F. (2005). Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Ekonometrik Olarak İncelenmesi. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 101-115.
  • Gündoğan, H., ve Tok, D. (2019). Petrole Bağımlı Ülkelerde Petrol Fiyatlarının Sanayi Üretimine Etkisi: Panel Nedensellik Çalışması. Ege Akademik Bakış, 19(1), 131-140.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228–248. Hamilton, J. D. (2003). What is an oil shock?, Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363–398.
  • Hazarika, I. (2015). An Analytical Study On The Impact Of Fluctuating Oil Prices On OPEC Economies. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 6(3), 161.
  • Hesary, F. T., Yoshino, N., Abdoli, G., & Farzinvash, A. (2013). An Estimation Of The Impact Of Oil Shocks On Crude Oil Exporting Economies And Their Trade Partners. Frontiers of Economics in China, 8(4), 571-591.
  • Hooker, M. A. (1996). What Happened To The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?, Journal of monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-213.
  • Kılıç, Y. ve Çütcü, İ. (2018). Bitcoin Fiyatları İle Borsa İstanbul Endeksi Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme Ve Nedensellik İlişkisi, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 13(3), 235-250.
  • Kilian, L. (2008). Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They And How Much Do They Matter For The US Economy? The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 216–240.
  • Koçak, E. (2014). Türkiye’de Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 2(3), 62-73.
  • Leduc, S., & Sill, K. (2004). A Quantitative Analysis Of Oil‐Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And Economic Downturns. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(4), 781–808.
  • Matsen, E., & Torvik, R. (2005). Optimal Dutch Disease. Journal of Development Economics, 78(2), 494-515. Mork, K. A. (1989). Oil and The Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up And Down: An Extension Of Hamilton's Results. Journal of political Economy, 97(3), 740-744.
  • Öksüzler, O., ve İpek, E. (2011). Dünya Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 7, Sayı 14, 15-34.
  • Öztürk, S. ve Pehlivan, Ö. S. (2020). Türkiye'de demokrasi ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ilişkisi: toda-yamamoto nedensellik analizi (1974-2018). Balkan Journal of Social Sciences/Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(17), 113-118.
  • Prasad, A., Narayan, P. K. and Narayan, J. (2007). Exploring the Oil Price and Real GDP Nexus for a Small Island Economy, the Fiji Islands. Energy Policy, 35(12), 6506-6513.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem, Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith. 2001. Bo-unds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, (16): 289-326.
  • Rajan, R. G., & Subramanian, A. (2011). Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth. Journal of development Economics, 94(1), 106-118.
  • Wen, F., Min, F., Zhang, Y. J., & Yang, C. (2019). Crude Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy, And China's Economy. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 812-827.
  • Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto T. (1995). Statistical ınferences in vector autoregressions with possibly ıntegrated processes. Journal of Econometrics. 66, 225-250.
  • Torvik, R. (2001). Learning by doing and the Dutch disease. European Economic Review, 45(2), 285-306.
  • TCMB, Kal, S. ve Kaplan Y. (2018), Türkiye’de ham petrol ithalat talebinin fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri: 2001-2017 dönemi, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/71f0235b-c89d-42be-96a3-671b4bafc7a2/en1805.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-71f0235b-c89d-42be-96a3-671b4bafc7a2-mjH5ryr, (Erişim tarihi: 06.11.2020.)
  • Yang, L., Cai, X. J., & Hamori, S. (2017). Does the crude oil price influence the exchange rates of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries differently? A wavelet coherence analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 49, 536-547.
  • Yılancı, Veli. (2015). Zaman Serileri Analizi Sakarya Ekonometri Semineri, Ders Notları, Sakarya.
  • Yılancı, Veli & Burcu Özcan. (2010). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1): 21-33.
  • Wang, Y., Wu, C., & Yang, L. (2013). Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Journal of Comparative Economics, 41(4), 1220-1239.
  • Tabata, S. (2006). Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia’s GDP Growth. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 47(1), 95-111.

Change in Crude Oil Prices, Monetary Indicators, Inflation and Growth Relations: Example of Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 1 - 11, 30.03.2021

Öz

Increasing international integration movements with globalization make it necessary to accurately determine the direction of the relationship between the variables affecting the country's macroeconomic performance. Oil, especially used as an energy input in open economies, is associated with many macroeconomic indicators, leaving policy makers to make a number of decisions. For this purpose, the study examines the relationship between monetary policy decisions taken in Turkey, one of the countries that import oil, changes in inflation and economic growth indicators, and crude oil prices. The cointegration relationship between the variables monthly 2006:01-2020:01 the causality relationship between variables was analyzed using the Toda Yamamoto Causality Test.

Kaynakça

  • Abeysinghe, T. (2001). Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth. Economics letters, 73(2), 147-153.
  • Acosta, P. A., Lartey, E. K., & Mandelman, F. S. (2009). Remittances and the Dutch disease. Journal of international economics, 79(1), 102-116.
  • Aimer, N. M. M., & Moftah, M. (2016). The effects of fluctuations of oil price on economic growth of Libya. Energy Economics Letters, 3(2), 17-29.
  • Bala, Umar, Chin, L., Kaliappan, S. R., & Ismail, N. W. (2017), The Impact of Financial Development, Oil Price on Economic Growth in African OPEC Members. Editorial Board, 16.
  • Bachmeier, L. (2008). Monetary Policy and The Transmission Of Oil Shocks. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(4), 1738-1755.
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., and Watson M. (1997). Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects Oil Price Shocks, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1: 91–142.
  • Berument, M. H., Basak, N. and Dogan, N. (2010). The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries, Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-175.
  • Bouri, E., Kachacha, I., & Roubaud, D. (2020). Oil Market Conditions And Sovereign Risk in MENA Oil Exporters and Importers. Energy Policy, 137, 111073.
  • Brown, Stephen P.A., Yücel, Mine K. ve Thompson, John (2002). Business Cycles: The Role of Energy Prices, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Paper, 0304.
  • Corden, W. M. (1984). Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey And Consolidation. Oxford Economic Papers, 36(3), 359-380.
  • Farzanegan, M. R. and Markwardt, G. (2009). The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy. Energy Economics, 31(1), 134-151.
  • Filis, G., & Chatziantoniou, I. (2014). Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 42(4), 709-729.
  • Ftiti, Z., Guesmi, K., Teulon, F., & Chouachi, S. (2016). Relationship Between Crude Oil Prices And Economic Growth In Selected OPEC Countries. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 32(1), 11-22.
  • Ghalayini, L. (2011). The Interaction Between Oil Price and Economic Growth. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 13(21), 127-141. Girginer, N., ve Yenilmez, F. (2005). Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Ekonometrik Olarak İncelenmesi. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 101-115.
  • Gündoğan, H., ve Tok, D. (2019). Petrole Bağımlı Ülkelerde Petrol Fiyatlarının Sanayi Üretimine Etkisi: Panel Nedensellik Çalışması. Ege Akademik Bakış, 19(1), 131-140.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228–248. Hamilton, J. D. (2003). What is an oil shock?, Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363–398.
  • Hazarika, I. (2015). An Analytical Study On The Impact Of Fluctuating Oil Prices On OPEC Economies. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 6(3), 161.
  • Hesary, F. T., Yoshino, N., Abdoli, G., & Farzinvash, A. (2013). An Estimation Of The Impact Of Oil Shocks On Crude Oil Exporting Economies And Their Trade Partners. Frontiers of Economics in China, 8(4), 571-591.
  • Hooker, M. A. (1996). What Happened To The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?, Journal of monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-213.
  • Kılıç, Y. ve Çütcü, İ. (2018). Bitcoin Fiyatları İle Borsa İstanbul Endeksi Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme Ve Nedensellik İlişkisi, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 13(3), 235-250.
  • Kilian, L. (2008). Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They And How Much Do They Matter For The US Economy? The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 216–240.
  • Koçak, E. (2014). Türkiye’de Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 2(3), 62-73.
  • Leduc, S., & Sill, K. (2004). A Quantitative Analysis Of Oil‐Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And Economic Downturns. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(4), 781–808.
  • Matsen, E., & Torvik, R. (2005). Optimal Dutch Disease. Journal of Development Economics, 78(2), 494-515. Mork, K. A. (1989). Oil and The Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up And Down: An Extension Of Hamilton's Results. Journal of political Economy, 97(3), 740-744.
  • Öksüzler, O., ve İpek, E. (2011). Dünya Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 7, Sayı 14, 15-34.
  • Öztürk, S. ve Pehlivan, Ö. S. (2020). Türkiye'de demokrasi ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ilişkisi: toda-yamamoto nedensellik analizi (1974-2018). Balkan Journal of Social Sciences/Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(17), 113-118.
  • Prasad, A., Narayan, P. K. and Narayan, J. (2007). Exploring the Oil Price and Real GDP Nexus for a Small Island Economy, the Fiji Islands. Energy Policy, 35(12), 6506-6513.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem, Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith. 2001. Bo-unds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, (16): 289-326.
  • Rajan, R. G., & Subramanian, A. (2011). Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth. Journal of development Economics, 94(1), 106-118.
  • Wen, F., Min, F., Zhang, Y. J., & Yang, C. (2019). Crude Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy, And China's Economy. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 812-827.
  • Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto T. (1995). Statistical ınferences in vector autoregressions with possibly ıntegrated processes. Journal of Econometrics. 66, 225-250.
  • Torvik, R. (2001). Learning by doing and the Dutch disease. European Economic Review, 45(2), 285-306.
  • TCMB, Kal, S. ve Kaplan Y. (2018), Türkiye’de ham petrol ithalat talebinin fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri: 2001-2017 dönemi, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/71f0235b-c89d-42be-96a3-671b4bafc7a2/en1805.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-71f0235b-c89d-42be-96a3-671b4bafc7a2-mjH5ryr, (Erişim tarihi: 06.11.2020.)
  • Yang, L., Cai, X. J., & Hamori, S. (2017). Does the crude oil price influence the exchange rates of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries differently? A wavelet coherence analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 49, 536-547.
  • Yılancı, Veli. (2015). Zaman Serileri Analizi Sakarya Ekonometri Semineri, Ders Notları, Sakarya.
  • Yılancı, Veli & Burcu Özcan. (2010). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1): 21-33.
  • Wang, Y., Wu, C., & Yang, L. (2013). Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Journal of Comparative Economics, 41(4), 1220-1239.
  • Tabata, S. (2006). Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia’s GDP Growth. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 47(1), 95-111.
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Ayşe Ergin Ünal 0000-0001-6551-8933

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Mart 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 18 Ocak 2021
Kabul Tarihi 11 Mart 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Ergin Ünal, A. (2021). Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişim, Parasal Göstergeler, Enflasyon ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. İşletme Ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 9(1), 1-11.

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