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Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Yeşil Teknolojilerin Belirleyicileri

Yıl 2021, Cilt 9, Sayı 2, 155 - 167, 27.10.2021

Öz

Sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümenin gerçekleştirmesi için temel faktörlerden biri patent ve yenilikçi teknolojilerin geliştirilmesini sağlayacak ekonomik yapının yaratılmasıdır. Yeşil enerji teknolojilerindeki AR-GE yatırımları sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme sürecinin temelidir. Çalışmada, yeşil enerji teknolojisi yatırımları ve patentler, enerji fiyatları ve enerji politikaları arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley and Sons Ltd. 4th Edition, Chichester, England.
  • Barbieri, N. (2016). Fuel Prices and The invention Crowding Out Effect: Releasing The Automotive Industry From its Dependence on Fossil Fuel. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 222-234.
  • Bel, G. & Joseph, S. (2018). Policy Stringency under the European Union Emission Trading System and its Impact on Technological Change in the Energy Sector. Energy Policy, 117, 434-444.
  • Böhringer, C., Cuntz, A., Harhoff, D. & Asane-Otoo, E. (2017). The Impact of the German Feed-in Tariff Scheme on Innovation: Evidence Based on Patent Filings in Renewable Energy Technologies. Energy Economics, 67, 545-553.
  • Breusch T. S. & Pagan A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Brunnermeier S. B. & Cohen, M. (2003). Determinants of Environmental Innovation in US Manufacturing Industries. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 45(2), 278-293.
  • Chen, Y., Lai, S. & Wen, C. (2006). The Influence of Green Innovation Performance on Corporate Advantage in Taiwan. Journal of Business Ethics, 67, 331-339.
  • Denison, E. F. (1979). Accounting for Slower Economic Growth the United States in the 1970’s. Brookings Institution Press.
  • Desheng, L., Jiakui, C. & Ning, Z. (2021). Political Connections and Green Technology Innovations Under an Environmental Regulation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 298: 126-178.
  • Fabrizi, A., Guarini, G. & Meliciani, V. (2018). Green Patents, Regulatory Policies and Research Network Policies, Research Policy, 47(6), 1018-1031.
  • Fang, Z., Kong, X., Sensoy, A., Cui, X. & Cheng, F. (2021). Government’s Awareness of Environmental Protection And Corporate Green Innovation: A Natural Experiment From The New Environmental Protection Law in China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 294-312.
  • Fischer C., Greaker, M & Rosendahl, K. E. (2017). Robust Technology Policy Against Emission Leakage: The Case of Upstream Subsidies. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 84, 44-61.
  • Frondel, M., Horbach, J. & Rennings, K. (2007). End-of-pipe or Cleaner Production? An Empirical Comparison of Environmental Innovation Decisions across OECD Countries. Business Strategy and the Environment, 16 (8), 571–584.
  • Gallagher, K. S., Anadon, L. D., Kempener, R. & Wilson, C. (2011). Trends in Investment in Global Energy Research Development, and Demonstration. WIREs Climate Change, 2(3), 373-396.
  • Gray, W. B. (1987). The Cost of Regulation: OSHA, EPA and the Productivity Slowdown, The American Economic Review, 77(5), 998-1006.
  • Guillouzouic-Le Corff, A. (2018). Did Oil Prices Trigger an Innovation Burst in Biofuels? Energy Economics, 75, 547-559.
  • Hadri, K. & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A Simple Panel Stationarity Test in the Presence of Serial Correlation and a Common Factor. Economic Letters, 115, 31–34.
  • Hall, B. H. & Helmers, C. (2010). The Role of Patent Protection in (clean/green) Technology Transfer. NBER Working Paper No: 16323.
  • Hamamoto, M. (2006). Environmental Regulation and the Productivity of Japanese Manufacturing Industries. Resource and Energy Economics, 28, 299-312.
  • Hascic, I., de Vries, F., Johnstone N. & Medhi N. (2009). Effects of Environmental Policy on the Type of Innovation: The Case of Automotive Emission-control Technologies. OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2009(1), 1-18.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46: 1251-1271.
  • Horbach J., Rammer, C. & Rennings, K. (2012) Determinants of Eco-Innovations by type of Environmental Impact-the Role of Regulatory Push/Pull, Technology Push and Market Pull. Ecological Economies, 78, 112-122.
  • IEA (2009). Global Gap in Clean Energy Research Development and Demonstration. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Global_gaps_in_Clean_Energy.pdf; (17.12.2020).
  • IEA (2021). Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020. https://www.iea.org/articles/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2020; (15.04.2021) IEAa (2015). Energy and Climate Change. World Energy Outlook Special Report (05.01.2021).
  • IEAb (2015). Key Trends in public energy technology RD&D Budgets. http://wds.iea.org/wds/pdf/IEA_RDD_Factsheet_2015.pdf; (05.01.2021).
  • Im, K. L., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
  • Jaffe A. B. & Palmer, K. (1997). Environmental Regulation an Innovation: A Panel Data Study. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 610-619.
  • Joelle N. & Roger, S. (2015). Directing Technical Change from Fossil-fuel to Renewable Energy Innovation: An Application using Firm-level Patent Data, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 72, 15-37.
  • Johnstone, N., Hascic, I. & Popp, D. (2008). Renewable Energy Policies and Technological Innovation Evidence Based on Patent Counts. NBER Working Paper No: 13760.
  • Kammerer, D. (2009). The Effects of Customer Benefit and Regulation on Environmental Product Innovation: Empirical Evidence from Appliance Manufacturers in Germany. Ecological Economics, 68, 2285–2295.
  • Kesidou, E. & Wu, L. (2020). Stringency of Environmental Regulation and Eco-Innovation: Evidence from The Eleventh Five-Year Plan and Green Patents. Economics Letters, 190.
  • Kim, K. & Kim, Y. (2015). Role of Policy in Innovation and International Trade of Renewable Energy Technology: Empirical Study of Solar PV and Wind Power Technology. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 44, 717-727.
  • Klaassen, G., Miketa, A, Larsen, K. & Sundqvist, T. (2005). The Impact of R&D on Innovation for Wind Energy in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom. Ecological Economics, 54(2-3): 227-240.
  • Lanjouw, J. & Mody, A. (1996). Innovation and the International Diffusion of Environmentally Responsive Technology. Research Policy, 25(4), 549-571.
  • Laurens P, Bas CL, Schoen A, Lhuillery S (2016) Technological Contribution of MNEs to the Growth of Energy-greentech Sector in the Early Post-Kyoto Period. Environ Econ Policy Stud 18: 169-191.
  • Li, K. & Lin, B. (2016). Impact of Energy Technology Patents in China: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration and Error Correction Model. Energy Policy, 89, 214-223.
  • Newell R, Jaffe, A., Stavins, R. (1999), The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and Energy-saving Technological Change. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114 (3), 941-75.
  • OECD (2021). Environment Database https://www.oecd.org/env/indicators-modelling-outlooks/green-patents.htm; (12.04.2021).
  • Pastakia, A. (2002). Assessing Ecopreneurship in the Context of a Developing Country. Greener Management International: The Journal of Corporate Environmental Strategy and Practice, 38, 93-108.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels With A Multıfactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105–127.
  • Pesaran, M. H. &Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 142(1), 50–93.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (1997). The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run. The Economic Journal, 107(440), 178-191.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics Working Paper No: 435.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265–312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621–634.
  • Popp, D. (2002). Induced Innovation and Energy Prices. American Economic Review, 92(1), 160-180.
  • Popp, D. (2010). Innovation and Climate Policy. NBER Working Paper No: 15673.
  • Popp, D. (2012). The Role of Technological Change in Green Growth. NBER Working Paper No: 18506.
  • Porter, M. E. & Claas van der, L. (1995). Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 97-118.
  • Portney, P. R. (1981). The Macroeconomic Impacts of Federal Environmental Regulation, Natural Resources Journal, 21, 459-488.
  • Requate, T. (2015). Green Tradable Certificates versus Feed-in Tariffs in the Promotion of Renewable Energy Shares. Environmental Economic Policy Studies, 17(2), 211-239.
  • Schneider, M., Holzer, A. & Hoffmann, V. (2008). Understanding the CDM’s Contribution to Technology Transfer. Energy Policy, 36, 2930-2938.
  • Shrivastava, P. (1995). Environmental Technologies and Competitive Advantage. Strategic Management Journal, 16, 183-200.
  • Song, M., Wang, S. & Zhang, H. (2020). Could Environmental Regulation and R&D Tax Incentives Affect Green Product Innovation?. Journal of Cleaner Production, 258, 120-149.
  • UNEP (2016). Global Trend in Renewable Energy Investment 2016. United Nations Environment Programme, Bloomberg Energy Finance, http://www.fs-unep-centre.org. (12.03.2021).
  • UNEP (2019). Renewables 2019 Global Status Report, United Nations Environment Programme, https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/28496; (12.03.2021).
  • UNFCCC (2019). Global Warming of 1.50C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_Low_Res.pdf (15.04.2021).
  • Weina, D., Gilli, M., Mazzanti, M. & Nicolli, F. (2016). Green Inventions and Greenhouse Gas Emission Dynamics: A Close Examination of Provincial Italian Data. Environmental Economic Policy Studies, 18, 247-263.
  • Westerlund, J. (2006). Testing for Panel Cointegration With Multiple Structural Breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68, 101–32.
  • Yu, F., Guo, Y., Le-Nguyen, K., Barnes, S. J. & Zhang, W. (2016). The Impact of Government Subsidies and Enterprises’ R&D Investment: A Panel Data Study from Renewable Energy in China, Energy Policy, 89, 106-113.

Determinants of Green Technologies in Developing Countries

Yıl 2021, Cilt 9, Sayı 2, 155 - 167, 27.10.2021

Öz

One of the key factors for achieving sustainable economic growth is the creation of an economic structure that can develop patents and innovative products. R&D investments in green energy technologies and patents are the basis of the sustainable economic growth process. In the study, the relationship between investments in green energy technology and patents, energy prices, environmental policies have been examined. For this purpose, long term coefficient analysis considering cross-sectional dependency tests, second generation unit root analyzes, cointegration test considering structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency are applied by creating a demand-side equation based on panel data analysis. According to the analysis findings, the green patent number is affected by the macro-economic variables considered in the model.

Kaynakça

  • Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley and Sons Ltd. 4th Edition, Chichester, England.
  • Barbieri, N. (2016). Fuel Prices and The invention Crowding Out Effect: Releasing The Automotive Industry From its Dependence on Fossil Fuel. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 222-234.
  • Bel, G. & Joseph, S. (2018). Policy Stringency under the European Union Emission Trading System and its Impact on Technological Change in the Energy Sector. Energy Policy, 117, 434-444.
  • Böhringer, C., Cuntz, A., Harhoff, D. & Asane-Otoo, E. (2017). The Impact of the German Feed-in Tariff Scheme on Innovation: Evidence Based on Patent Filings in Renewable Energy Technologies. Energy Economics, 67, 545-553.
  • Breusch T. S. & Pagan A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Brunnermeier S. B. & Cohen, M. (2003). Determinants of Environmental Innovation in US Manufacturing Industries. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 45(2), 278-293.
  • Chen, Y., Lai, S. & Wen, C. (2006). The Influence of Green Innovation Performance on Corporate Advantage in Taiwan. Journal of Business Ethics, 67, 331-339.
  • Denison, E. F. (1979). Accounting for Slower Economic Growth the United States in the 1970’s. Brookings Institution Press.
  • Desheng, L., Jiakui, C. & Ning, Z. (2021). Political Connections and Green Technology Innovations Under an Environmental Regulation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 298: 126-178.
  • Fabrizi, A., Guarini, G. & Meliciani, V. (2018). Green Patents, Regulatory Policies and Research Network Policies, Research Policy, 47(6), 1018-1031.
  • Fang, Z., Kong, X., Sensoy, A., Cui, X. & Cheng, F. (2021). Government’s Awareness of Environmental Protection And Corporate Green Innovation: A Natural Experiment From The New Environmental Protection Law in China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 294-312.
  • Fischer C., Greaker, M & Rosendahl, K. E. (2017). Robust Technology Policy Against Emission Leakage: The Case of Upstream Subsidies. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 84, 44-61.
  • Frondel, M., Horbach, J. & Rennings, K. (2007). End-of-pipe or Cleaner Production? An Empirical Comparison of Environmental Innovation Decisions across OECD Countries. Business Strategy and the Environment, 16 (8), 571–584.
  • Gallagher, K. S., Anadon, L. D., Kempener, R. & Wilson, C. (2011). Trends in Investment in Global Energy Research Development, and Demonstration. WIREs Climate Change, 2(3), 373-396.
  • Gray, W. B. (1987). The Cost of Regulation: OSHA, EPA and the Productivity Slowdown, The American Economic Review, 77(5), 998-1006.
  • Guillouzouic-Le Corff, A. (2018). Did Oil Prices Trigger an Innovation Burst in Biofuels? Energy Economics, 75, 547-559.
  • Hadri, K. & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A Simple Panel Stationarity Test in the Presence of Serial Correlation and a Common Factor. Economic Letters, 115, 31–34.
  • Hall, B. H. & Helmers, C. (2010). The Role of Patent Protection in (clean/green) Technology Transfer. NBER Working Paper No: 16323.
  • Hamamoto, M. (2006). Environmental Regulation and the Productivity of Japanese Manufacturing Industries. Resource and Energy Economics, 28, 299-312.
  • Hascic, I., de Vries, F., Johnstone N. & Medhi N. (2009). Effects of Environmental Policy on the Type of Innovation: The Case of Automotive Emission-control Technologies. OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2009(1), 1-18.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46: 1251-1271.
  • Horbach J., Rammer, C. & Rennings, K. (2012) Determinants of Eco-Innovations by type of Environmental Impact-the Role of Regulatory Push/Pull, Technology Push and Market Pull. Ecological Economies, 78, 112-122.
  • IEA (2009). Global Gap in Clean Energy Research Development and Demonstration. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Global_gaps_in_Clean_Energy.pdf; (17.12.2020).
  • IEA (2021). Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020. https://www.iea.org/articles/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2020; (15.04.2021) IEAa (2015). Energy and Climate Change. World Energy Outlook Special Report (05.01.2021).
  • IEAb (2015). Key Trends in public energy technology RD&D Budgets. http://wds.iea.org/wds/pdf/IEA_RDD_Factsheet_2015.pdf; (05.01.2021).
  • Im, K. L., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
  • Jaffe A. B. & Palmer, K. (1997). Environmental Regulation an Innovation: A Panel Data Study. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 610-619.
  • Joelle N. & Roger, S. (2015). Directing Technical Change from Fossil-fuel to Renewable Energy Innovation: An Application using Firm-level Patent Data, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 72, 15-37.
  • Johnstone, N., Hascic, I. & Popp, D. (2008). Renewable Energy Policies and Technological Innovation Evidence Based on Patent Counts. NBER Working Paper No: 13760.
  • Kammerer, D. (2009). The Effects of Customer Benefit and Regulation on Environmental Product Innovation: Empirical Evidence from Appliance Manufacturers in Germany. Ecological Economics, 68, 2285–2295.
  • Kesidou, E. & Wu, L. (2020). Stringency of Environmental Regulation and Eco-Innovation: Evidence from The Eleventh Five-Year Plan and Green Patents. Economics Letters, 190.
  • Kim, K. & Kim, Y. (2015). Role of Policy in Innovation and International Trade of Renewable Energy Technology: Empirical Study of Solar PV and Wind Power Technology. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 44, 717-727.
  • Klaassen, G., Miketa, A, Larsen, K. & Sundqvist, T. (2005). The Impact of R&D on Innovation for Wind Energy in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom. Ecological Economics, 54(2-3): 227-240.
  • Lanjouw, J. & Mody, A. (1996). Innovation and the International Diffusion of Environmentally Responsive Technology. Research Policy, 25(4), 549-571.
  • Laurens P, Bas CL, Schoen A, Lhuillery S (2016) Technological Contribution of MNEs to the Growth of Energy-greentech Sector in the Early Post-Kyoto Period. Environ Econ Policy Stud 18: 169-191.
  • Li, K. & Lin, B. (2016). Impact of Energy Technology Patents in China: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration and Error Correction Model. Energy Policy, 89, 214-223.
  • Newell R, Jaffe, A., Stavins, R. (1999), The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and Energy-saving Technological Change. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114 (3), 941-75.
  • OECD (2021). Environment Database https://www.oecd.org/env/indicators-modelling-outlooks/green-patents.htm; (12.04.2021).
  • Pastakia, A. (2002). Assessing Ecopreneurship in the Context of a Developing Country. Greener Management International: The Journal of Corporate Environmental Strategy and Practice, 38, 93-108.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels With A Multıfactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105–127.
  • Pesaran, M. H. &Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 142(1), 50–93.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (1997). The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run. The Economic Journal, 107(440), 178-191.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics Working Paper No: 435.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265–312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621–634.
  • Popp, D. (2002). Induced Innovation and Energy Prices. American Economic Review, 92(1), 160-180.
  • Popp, D. (2010). Innovation and Climate Policy. NBER Working Paper No: 15673.
  • Popp, D. (2012). The Role of Technological Change in Green Growth. NBER Working Paper No: 18506.
  • Porter, M. E. & Claas van der, L. (1995). Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 97-118.
  • Portney, P. R. (1981). The Macroeconomic Impacts of Federal Environmental Regulation, Natural Resources Journal, 21, 459-488.
  • Requate, T. (2015). Green Tradable Certificates versus Feed-in Tariffs in the Promotion of Renewable Energy Shares. Environmental Economic Policy Studies, 17(2), 211-239.
  • Schneider, M., Holzer, A. & Hoffmann, V. (2008). Understanding the CDM’s Contribution to Technology Transfer. Energy Policy, 36, 2930-2938.
  • Shrivastava, P. (1995). Environmental Technologies and Competitive Advantage. Strategic Management Journal, 16, 183-200.
  • Song, M., Wang, S. & Zhang, H. (2020). Could Environmental Regulation and R&D Tax Incentives Affect Green Product Innovation?. Journal of Cleaner Production, 258, 120-149.
  • UNEP (2016). Global Trend in Renewable Energy Investment 2016. United Nations Environment Programme, Bloomberg Energy Finance, http://www.fs-unep-centre.org. (12.03.2021).
  • UNEP (2019). Renewables 2019 Global Status Report, United Nations Environment Programme, https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/28496; (12.03.2021).
  • UNFCCC (2019). Global Warming of 1.50C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_Low_Res.pdf (15.04.2021).
  • Weina, D., Gilli, M., Mazzanti, M. & Nicolli, F. (2016). Green Inventions and Greenhouse Gas Emission Dynamics: A Close Examination of Provincial Italian Data. Environmental Economic Policy Studies, 18, 247-263.
  • Westerlund, J. (2006). Testing for Panel Cointegration With Multiple Structural Breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68, 101–32.
  • Yu, F., Guo, Y., Le-Nguyen, K., Barnes, S. J. & Zhang, W. (2016). The Impact of Government Subsidies and Enterprises’ R&D Investment: A Panel Data Study from Renewable Energy in China, Energy Policy, 89, 106-113.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İktisat
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Serkan ÇINAR (Sorumlu Yazar)
MANISA CELAL BAYAR UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF APPLIED SCIENCES
0000-0002-5633-1832
Türkiye


Mine YILMAZER
MANISA CELAL BAYAR UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF APPLIED SCIENCES
0000-0001-8674-792X
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Ekim 2021
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021, Cilt 9, Sayı 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Çınar, S. & Yılmazer, M. (2021). Determinants of Green Technologies in Developing Countries . İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi , 9 (2) , 155-167 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iicder/issue/65542/928810

15860

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