İhracata Yönelik Büyüme Hipotezi Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa Ülkeleri İçin Geçerli mi?

Öz

İhracata yönelik büyüme hipotezi pek çok kez incelenmiş ve bu konuda başta Uzak Doğu Ülkeleri olmak üzere genellikle destekleyici sonuçların ortaya konulduğu geniş bir literatür oluşmuştur. İlgili literatürde 1990’lı yıllarla birlikte serbest piyasa ekonomisine geçen ve genellikle 2000’li yıllardan itibaren İhracata yönelik büyümeyi hedefleyen politikaları takip eden Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri özelinde ise son derece sınırlı araştırmaların olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada seçilmiş 11 Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkesi için 2010M01-2018M08 dönemi ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme verileri kullanılmakta ve Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) ve Hatemi-J (2011) panel nedensellik analizleri ile ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkileri çerçevesinde araştırılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçlarımız, ülkelerin ihracat ve büyüme potansiyellerine bağlı olarak ihracat bazlı büyüme veya büyüme bazlı ihracat olgularının ülkeler arasında farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymakla birlikte panel grubu ülkelerin geneli için her iki nedensellik testinin sonuçlarını bir arada değerlendirdiğimizde genel olarak ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geniş ölçekte desteklendiğine işaret etmektedir. Bu sonucun yanı sıra elde edilen veriler, ekonomik büyümenin de ihracat üzerinde ayrıca olumlu etkilerinin bulunduğuna işaret etmektedir. İhracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasında bir geri besleme (feedback) olayına dayalı etkileşimli bu ilişkinin varlığı gerek Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) gerekse Hatemi-J (2011) nedensellik analizleri ile de desteklenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dış Ticaret
• İhracata Yönelik Büyüme
• Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa Ülkeleri
• Panel Nedensellik Analizleri.

Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid For The Central And Eastern European Countries?

Öz

The export-oriented growth hypothesis has been examined many times, and there has been an extensive literature on this subject, mainly in the Far East Countries, with generally supportive results. In the relevant literature, it is seen that there are very limited researches in the Central and Eastern European countries, which switched to a free market economy in the 1990s and generally followed the policies aimed at export-oriented growth since the 2000s. In this study, export and economic growth data for the period 2010M01-2018M08 for 11 selected Central and Eastern European countries are used and investigated within the export and economic growth relations framework with Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) and Hatemi-J (2011) panel causality analysis. Our analysis results reveal that the export-based growth or growth-based export phenomena differ between countries depending on the export and growth potential of the countries. In addition to this result, the data obtained indicate that economic growth also has positively affects on exports. The existence of this interactive relationship between exports and economic growth based on a feedback event has been supported by both Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) and Hatemi-J (2011) causality analyzes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Trade
• Export-led Growth
• Central and Eastern European Countrıes
• Panel Causality Analysis

Kaynakça

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