Botsvana ve Güney Afrika'da Dış Borç, Yatırım ve Finansal Gelişme: Çok Değişkenli Nedensel Analiz

Öz

Bu makale, 1980-2020 yılları arasında Botsvana ve Güney Afrika'da dış borç, finansal gelişme ve yatırım arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi değerlendirmek için çok değişkenli bir Granger-nedensellik modeli kullanmaktadır. Çalışma kesintili değişkenler olarak tasarruf, ticaret ve ekonomik büyümeyi içermektedir. Otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımının kullanılması; ampirik sonuçlar, hem Botsvana hem de Güney Afrika için dış borç ile finansal gelişme ve/veya yatırım arasında belirgin bir kısa ve uzun vadeli Granger nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bununla birlikte, Botsvana için yatırımdan finansal gelişmeye doğru kısa vadeli tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Güney Afrika için ise bunun tersi doğrudur. Yani finansal gelişmeden yatırıma doğru kısa ve uzun dönem tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Botsvana için politika anlamı, kısa vadede reel sektörü canlandırmak; yatırımı teşvik etmek için muazzam çabalar tavsiye edilir. Botsvana için diğer sonuçlar, yatırım, tasarruf ve ekonomik büyümenin eş zamanlı teşvikini desteklemektedir çünkü bu değişkenlerin kısa vadeli ve uzun vadeli çift yönlü nedensel bir ilişkisi olduğu bulunmuştur. Güney Afrika için, yatırımı ve ekonomik büyümeyi yönlendiren temel olarak finansal gelişmedir. Bu nedenle, politika hem kısa hem de uzun vadede yatırımı teşvik etmek için finansal gelişmeyi teşvik etmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişme
• Dış Borç
• Güney Afrika
• Botsvana
• Yatırım

External Debt, Investment, and Financial Development in Botswana and South Africa: A Multivariate Causal Analysis

Öz

This paper employs a multivariate Granger-causality model to evaluate the causal relationship between external debt, financial development, and investment in Botswana and South Africa from 1980–2020. The study includes savings, trade, and economic growth as intermittent variables. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach; empirical results reveal that, for both Botswana and South Africa, there is no distinct short- and long-run Granger-causality relationship between external debt and either financial development and/or investment. However, for Botswana, there is a short-run unidirectional causal relationship from investment to financial development. While for South Africa, the opposite is true. That is, there is a short-run and long-run unidirectional causal relationship from financial development to investment. The policy implication for Botswana is to stimulate the real sector in the short run; immense efforts in promoting investment are recommended. Other results for Botswana support the concurrent promotion of investment, savings, and economic growth because these variables are found to have a short-run and long-run bidirectional causal relationship. For South Africa, it is primarily financial development that drives investment and economic growth. Therefore, policy should promote financial development to stimulate investment, both in the short and long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Development
• External Debt
• Investment
• Botswana
• South Africa

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