Çin'in Ekonomik Gelişiminde Dış Ticaret ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Yaklaşım

Öz

Çin, 1978 yılında yaptığı reformlarla birlikte hızlı bir ekonomik gelişme kaydetmiştir. Bu hızlı ekonomik gelişmede reformlar ile birlikte artan doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ve dış ticaretin etkili olduğu düşünülmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışma, Çin'in 1978-2016 yılları arasındaki hızlı ekonomik büyümesinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ve dış ticaretin etkinliğini SVAR yöntemini kullanarak incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Çalışma kapsamında büyüme oranı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların GSYİH içindeki oranı ve dış ticaret hacminin GSYİH içindeki oranı olmak üzere üç değişken kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın ilk bölümünde Çin'in büyüme süreci, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve dış ticareti grafikler yardımıyla değerlendirilmiştir. Takip eden bölümde ampirik kısımda, kriz dönemlerinin sonuçları etkilemesini önlemek amacıyla ilk olarak kriz dönemleri kukla değişken olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Bunu takiben birim kök testleri yapılmış ve serilerin düzeyde durağan olmadıkları ancak birinci farkları alındıktan sonra durağan hale geldikleri sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada serilerin birinci farkları analiz için kullanılmıştır. Takip eden bölümde modele otokorelasyon ve değişen varyans testleri uygulanmıştır. Bu testlerin sonuçları modelin değerlendirme için uygun olduğunu göstermiştir. Dolayısıyla, bir sonraki bölümde modelin etki-tepki fonksiyonlarının ve varyans ayrıştırma sonuçlarının değerlendirilmesine geçilmiştir. Bu analizler sonucunda, hem doğrudan yabancı yatırımların hem de dış ticaretin, ama özellikle doğrudan yabancı yatırımların, Çin'in büyümesi üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• SVAR Modeli
• Çin ekonomisi
• Büyüme
• Dış Ticaret
• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar

The Impact of Foreign Trade and Foreign Direct Investment on China's Economic Development: An Empirical Approach

Öz

China achieved rapid economic development as a result of the reforms implemented in 1978. It is widely believed that foreign direct investments and foreign trade, which increased alongside these reforms, had a significant impact on this rapid economic progress. Consequently, this study sought to examine the effectiveness of foreign direct investments and foreign trade in facilitating China's rapid economic growth between 1978 and 2016, utilizing the SVAR method. Within the scope of the study, three variables were utilized: the growth rate, the ratio of foreign direct investments in GDP, and the ratio of foreign trade volume in GDP. In the initial part of the study, the growth process, foreign direct investments, and foreign trade of China were evaluated using graphical representations. In the following section, in the empirical part, initially crisis periods were incorporated into the model as a dummy variable in order to prevent crisis periods to affecting the results. Following this, unit root tests were conducted, and it was concluded that the series were non-stationary at the level but became stationary after taking their first differences. Therefore, in this study, the first differences of the series were utilized for analysis. In the subsequent part, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity tests were applied to the model. The results of these tests indicated that the model is suitable for evaluation. Consequently, in the next part, the study proceeded to evaluate the impulse-response functions and variance decomposition results of the model. As a result of these analyses, it was concluded that both foreign direct investments and foreign trade, but especially foreign direct investments, have a significant impact on China's economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• SVAR Model
• China
• Growth
• Foreign Trade
• Foreign Direct Investments

Kaynakça

1. Agrawal, G. (2015). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in BRICS economies: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(4), p. 421-424.
2. Agrawal, G., & Khan, M. (2011). Impact of FDI on GDP: A comparative study of China and India. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(10), p. 71-79.
3. Amisano, G., & Giannini, C. (2012). Topics in structural VAR econometrics (Second, Revised and Enlarged Edition). Springer Science & Business Media.
4. Anwar, S., S., & Nguyen, L. (2014). Is foreign direct investment productive? A case study of the regions of Vietnam. Journal of Business Research, 67(7), p. 1376-1387.
5. Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), p. 115-135.
6. Brems, H. (1970). Growth Model of International Direct Investment. American Economic Review, 60(3), p. 320-331.
7. Breusch, T. (1978). Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian Economic Papers, 17, p. 334–355.
8. Carkovic, M., & Levine, R. (2005). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth. Does foreign direct investment promote development (p. 195-220).

9. Chung, C., Chang, L., & Zhang, Y. (1995). The role of foreign direct investment in China’s post-1978 economic development. World Development, 23(4), p. 691-703.
10. Coe, D., & Helpman, E. (1993). International R&D spillovers. NBER Working Paper(No:4444).
11. Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(336a), p. 427-431.
12. Dollar, D. (1992). Outward-oriented developing economies really do grow more rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40(3), p. 523-544.
13. Enright, M. (2016). Developing China: The remarkable impact of foreign direct investment (First Edition). New York: Taylor & Francis.
14. Godfrey, L. (1978). Testing for higher order serial correlation in regression equations when the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Econometrica(46), p. 1303–1310.
15. Grossman, G., & Helpman, E. (1991). Quality ladders in the theory of growth. Review of Economic Studies(58), p. 43-61.
16. Hansen, H., & Rand, J. (2006). On the Causal Links Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries. World Economy, 29(1), s. 21-41.
17. Hanson, G. (2001). Should Countries Promote Foreign DirectInvestment? United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. G-24 Discussion Paper Series, Geneva.
18. Hossain, A., & Hossain, M. (2012). Empirical relationship between foreign direct investment and economic output in South Asian countries: A study on Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. International Business Research, 5(1), p. 9-21.
19. Hussain, M., & Haque, M. (2016). Foreign direct investment, trade, and economic growth: An empirical analysis of Bangladesh. Economies, 4(2).
20. Kanayo, O., & Emeka, O. (2012). Foreign private capital, economic growth and macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria: An empirical framework. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(10), p. 111-124.
21. Kerr, D. (2007). Has China Abandoned Self-Reliance? Review of International Political Economy, 14(1), p. 77-104.
22. Kobayashi, S., Baobo, J., & Sano, J. (1999). The "Three Reforms" in China: Progress and Outlook. Japan Research Institute (40).
23. Kong, Q., Peng, D., Ni, Y., Jiang, X., & Wang, Z. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth quality of China: Empirical analysis using ARDL model. Finance Research Letters(38).
24. Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P., Schmidt, P., & Shin , Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54((1-3)), p. 159–178.
25. Morrison, W. (2019). China's economic rise: History, trends, challenges, and implications for the United States. Current Politics and Economics of Northern and Western Asia, 28(2/3), p. 189-242.
26. Nwaogu, U., & Ryan, M. (2015). FDI, foreign aid, remittance and economic growth in developing countries. Review of Development Economics(19), p. 100-115.
27. Phillips , P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrica, 75(2), p. 335-346.
28. Romer, P. (1994). Idea Gaps and Objects Gaps in Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economy(99), p. 543-573.
29. Sachs, J., & Warner, A. (1995) Economic reform and process of global integration. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 26(1), p. 101-118.
30. Shan, J. (2002). A VAR approach to the economics of FDI in China. Applied Economics(34), p. 885-893.
31. Silva-Ruete, J. (2006). The Development of China's Export Performance. Central Reserve Bank of Peru. Lima.
32. Sims, C. (1980). Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles. American Economic Review, 70(2), p. 250-257.
33. Sun, H., & Parikh, A. (2001). Exports, Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Regional Economic Growth in China. Regional Studies, 35(3), p. 187-196.
34. Sun, P., & Heshmati, A. (2010). International Trade and its Effects on Economic Growth in China. Discussion Paper(No. 5151).
35. Tabassum, N., & Ahmed, S. (2014). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Evidence from Bangladesh. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(9), p. 117-135.
36. The World Bank. (2023a). GDP growth (annual %). Retrieved on July 17, 2023 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
37. The World Bank. (2023b). Exports of goods and services (current US$). Retrieved on July 25, 2023 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD?locations=TR-CN
38. The World Bank. (2023c). High-technology exports (current US$). Retrieved on July 25, 2017 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.TECH.CD?locations=CN
39. Umoh, O., Jacob, A., & Chuku, C. (2012). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria: An analysis of the endogenous effects. Current Research Journal of Economic Theory, 4(3), p. 53-66.
40. UNCTAD. (2023). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Retrieved on July 21, 2023 from https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx
41. Vu, T., Gangnes, B., & Noy, I. (2008). 562Is foreign direct investment good for growth? Evidence fromsectoral analysis of China and Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 13(4), s. 542–562.
42. Wei, K., Yao, S., & Liu, A. (2009). Foreign direct investment and regional inequality in China. Review of development economics, 13(4), p. 778-791.
43. White, H. (1980). WA Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), p. 817–838.
44. WTO. (2023). World Trade Organization. Retrieved on July 19, 2023 from https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/china_e.htm#:~:text=China%20has%20been%20a%20member%20of%20WTO%20since%2011%20December%202001.
45. Wu-Beyens, I. (1992). The years of reform in China: economic growth versus modernization. Civilisations. Revue internationale d’anthropologie et de sciences humaines, 40(1), p. 101-132.
46. Yalta, Y. (2013). Revisiting the FDI-led growth Hypothesis: The case of China. Economic Modelling(31), s. 335-343.
47. Yang, D. (1996). Calamity and reform in China: State, rural society, and institutional change since the Great Leap Famine. Stanford University Press.
48. Yao, S. (2006). On economic growth,FDI and exports in China. Applied Economics(38), s. 339–351.
49. Yu, P., Chen, K., & Sun, X. (2017). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in China: Evidence From A Two-Sector Model. Journal of Financial Management & Analysis, 30(2).
50. Zhang, K. H. (2001). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China? Economics of Transition, 9(3), p. 679–693.
51. Zhao, C., & Du, J. (2007). Causality Between FDI and Economic Growth in China. Chinese economy, 40(6), p. 68-82.