Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin İşgücü Piyasasına Etkisi: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Öz

Literatürde, iklim değişikliği ve işgücü piyasası arasındaki ilişki iklim politikalarının iş fırsatları yaratması ve işsizliği artırması üzerinden tartışılmaktadır. Bu nedenle, yenilenebilir enerji geçişinin işsizliği artırıp artırmayacağı veya istihdam fırsatları yaratıp yaratacağı önemli bir araştırma konusu olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye işgücü piyasasına odaklanarak işsizlik ile yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, Uluslararası Enerji Ajansı ve TÜİK veri tabanlarından elde edilen 1990-2019 dönemindeki yıllık verilerle değişkenlerin kısa ve uzun vadeli ilişkilerini belirlemek için Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag testi uygulanmaktadır. Araştırmanın sonuçları, uzun dönemde yenilenemeyen enerjideki %1'lik bir artışın işsizliği %1,64 azalttığını, ancak yenilenebilir enerjinin işsizliği %2,03 azalttığını göstermektedir. Kısa dönemde ise yenilenebilir enerji kullanımındaki her %1'lik artış, işsizlik oranını %1,06 azaltırken, yenilenemeyen enerji kullanımındaki %1'lik artış işsizlik oranını %1,31 azaltmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, kısa vadede yenilenebilir olmayan enerji kaynaklarının işsizlik üzerinde daha büyük bir etkiye sahip olduğunu söylemek mümkündür. Araştırmanın sonuçları, Türkiye'de yenilenebilir enerjiye odaklanan iklim politikalarının işsizlikle mücadeleye yardımcı olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• yenilebilir enerji
• işsizlik
• işgücü piyasası
• ARDL
• Türkiye

Impact of Global Climate Change on The Labour Market: Evidence from Türkiye

Öz

In the literature, the relationship between climate change and the labour market is discussed in terms of whether climate policies create employment opportunities or increase unemployment. Therefore, whether the transition to renewable energy will increase unemployment or create employment opportunities is an important research topic. This study aims to investigate the relationship between unemployment and the use of renewable energy by focusing on the Turkish labour market. In the study, the Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag test is applied to determine the short- and long-run relationships of the variables with annual data for the period 1990-2019 obtained from the International Energy Agency and TurkStat databases. The results of the study show that in the long-run, a 1% increase in non-renewable energy reduces unemployment by 1.64%, while renewable energy reduces unemployment by 2.03%. In the short-run, every 1% increase in the use of renewable energy reduces unemployment by 1.06%, while a 1% increase in the use of non-renewable energy reduces unemployment by 1.31%. In this context, it is possible to say that non-renewable energy sources have a greater impact on unemployment in the short run. The results of the research suggest that climate policies focussing on renewable energy in Turkey can help fight unemployment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Renewable energy
• unemployment
• labour market
• ARDL
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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