Spatial Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Housing Prices: The Case of Istanbul

Öz

One of the most significant consequences of global climate change is the rise in sea levels, and the housing markets are among the areas that will be most affected by this process. This study is one of the first econometric analyses to examine the effects of sea-level rise on housing prices in Istanbul at the neighborhood scale using the spatial quantile regression approach. It examines the potential effects of sea level rise on housing prices in at-risk coastal neighborhoods of Istanbul, based on the projection of a 2.5-meter sea level rise by 2100 reported by NASA’s Sea Level Change Team. The analysis uses data from 758 neighborhoods across 39 districts of Istanbul to estimate the effects of risk separately for low, medium, and high price segments, revealing the spatial heterogeneity of sea-level rise and the differentiated responses within the housing market. The findings indicate a strong presence of spatial dependence in housing prices. While exposure to sea-level rise and building density negatively affect housing prices, higher proportions of green space are associated with increased prices. These results suggest that housing prices are influenced not only by economic and spatial factors but also by environmental risks, and that these risks are not entirely ignored by the market. The outcomes underscore the critical importance of developing urban and housing policies that account for climate risks for sustainable cities. Measures such as ensuring the safety of coastal areas against flooding and inundation risks, implementing green infrastructure, establishing early warning mechanisms, and disaster management practices are highly necessary and highly important.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• : Housing Prices
• Sea-Level Rise Risk
• Climate Change
• Spatial Quantile Regression
• Istanbul

Proje Numarası

SBA-2025-11683

Deniz Seviyesi Yükselmesinin Konut Fiyatları Üzerindeki Mekânsal Etkileri: İstanbul Örneği

Öz

Küresel iklim değişikliğinin en önemli sonuçlarından biri deniz seviyesindeki yükselmedir. Bu durumdan en fazla etkilenecek alanların başında konut piyasaları gelmektedir. Mevcut literatürde, bu çalışma İstanbul’da deniz seviyesi yükselmesinin mahalle ölçeğinde konut fiyatlarına etkisini mekânsal kantil regresyon yöntemi ile inceleyen ilk ekonometrik çalışmalardan biridir. NASA Deniz Seviyesi Değişimi Ekibi’nin 2100 yılı için öngördüğü 2,5 metrelik senaryo temel alınarak, İstanbul’un 39 ilçesinin 758 mahallesine ait veriler analiz edilmiştir. Mekânsal kantil regresyon modeli ile düşük, orta ve yüksek fiyat segmentlerinde riskin etkilerini ayrı ayrı tahmin edilerek, deniz seviyesi yükselmesinin mekânsal heterojenliğini ve konut piyasasındaki farklı tepkileri ortaya konulmuştur. Elde edilen bulgular, konut fiyatlarında güçlü bir mekânsal bağımlılığın varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Deniz seviyesine maruz kalma ve bina yoğunluğu konut fiyatlarını olumsuz etkilerken, yeşil alan oranının fiyatları artırdığı görülmektedir. Bu bulgular konut fiyatlarının ekonomik ve mekânsal faktörlerin yanı sıra çevresel risklerden de etkilendiğini ve bu risklerin piyasa tarafından tamamen göz ardı edilmediğini göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, iklim risklerini dikkate alan kentsel ve konut politikalarının geliştirilmesinin sürdürülebilir şehirler açısından büyük önem taşıdığını göstermektedir. Kıyı bölgelerinin taşkın ve su baskını risklerine karşı güvenliğinin sağlanması, yeşil altyapı, erken uyarı mekanizmaları ile afet yönetimi gibi uygulamalar ve önlemler oldukça gerekli ve önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Konut Fiyatları
• Deniz Seviyesi Yükselme Riski
• İklim Değişikliği
• Mekânsal Kantil Regresyon
• İstanbul

Destekleyen Kurum

Bu makale, Marmara Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinasyon Birimi tarafından desteklenen SBA-2025-11683 numaralı Normal Araştırmalar Projesi kapsamında hazırlanmıştır.

Proje Numarası

SBA-2025-11683

Kaynakça

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