Finansal Gizlilik Endeksi’nin Belirleyicileri: Kurumsal Kalite, Ekonomik Özgürlük ve Sermaye Hareketlerinin Panel ve Kantil Analizi

Öz

Finansal gizlilik; bireylerin, firmaların ve ülkelerin mali bilgilerini koruyarak ekonomik özgürlük ve finansal güvenliğe katkı sağlarken, vergi kaçakçılığı, kara para aklama ve küresel finansal istikrar tartışmalarıyla da yakından bağlantılıdır. Bu çalışma, ülkelerin finansal gizlilik düzeylerini belirleyen ekonomik, politik ve kurumsal dinamikleri ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Bağımlı değişken, Tax Justice Network tarafından yayımlanan Finansal Gizlilik Endeksi’dir. Açıklayıcı değişkenler ekonomik özgürlük, yargı bağımsızlığı, hukukun üstünlüğü ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışı gibi göstergelerden oluşmaktadır. 27 ülkeden oluşan panel veri setiyle önce Newey–West düzeltmeli panel regresyon tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, ekonomik özgürlüğün finansal gizliliği güçlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı biçimde artırdığını göstermektedir. Yargı bağımsızlığının katsayısı pozitif olmakla birlikte anlamlılık sınırda kalmaktadır. Buna karşılık hukukun üstünlüğü finansal gizliliği anlamlı biçimde azaltmakta; DYY çıkışı da negatif yönlü bir ilişki sergilemektedir. İkinci aşamada, anlamlı değişkenlerle panel kantil regresyon uygulanmış ve sonuçlar q25, q50 ve q75 kantillerinde genel olarak korunmuştur. Sonuçlar, finansal gizliliğin yalnızca gelir düzeyiyle değil kurumsal kalite, hukuk devleti kapasitesi ve sermaye hareketleriyle birlikte şekillendiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gizlilik
• Yolsuzluk Algısı
• Ekonomik Özgürlük
• Yargı Bağımsızlığı
• Panel Kantil Regresyon

Etik Beyan

Çalışma kamuya açık verilerle ile yapıldığından etik izni gerekmemektedir.

Determinants of the Financial Secrecy Index: A Panel and Quantile Analysis of Institutional Quality, Economic Freedom, and Capital Flows

Öz

Financial secrecy protects the financial information of individuals, firms, and states, supporting economic freedom and financial security, yet it is also closely linked to tax evasion, money laundering, and debates on global financial stability. This study empirically examines the economic, political, and institutional drivers of cross-country differences in financial secrecy. The dependent variable is the Financial Secrecy Index published by the Tax Justice Network. Key explanatory variables include economic freedom, judicial independence, the rule of law, and outward foreign direct investment (FDI). Using a panel dataset of 27 countries, we first estimate a panel regression with Newey–West robust corrections. The findings show a strong and statistically significant positive association between economic freedom and financial secrecy. Judicial independence has a positive coefficient, though its statistical significance is marginal. By contrast, the rule of law is negatively and significantly related to financial secrecy, and outward FDI also displays a negative relationship. In a second step, we apply panel quantile regression using the variables that are significant in the baseline specification. Results remain broadly consistent across the 25th, 50th, and 75th quantiles, indicating that the estimated effects hold not only at the mean but across different points of the secrecy distribution. Overall, financial secrecy appears to be shaped by institutional quality and cross-border capital dynamics, not merely by development levels.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Sacrecy
• Corruption Perception
• Economic Freedom
• Judical Independence
• Panel Quantile Regression

Etik Beyan

As the study was conducted using publicly available data, ethical approval is not required.

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