From Search to Purchase: How Digital Search Reflects Consumer Spending Dynamics

Öz

Digital search data are widely used in marketing research and practice as timely indicators of consumer demand. However, this approach often overlooks the behavioral processes underlying search activity. This study reconceptualizes digital search as a decision-stage behavioral signal rather than a mechanical proxy for demand and examines how search behavior translates into realized consumer spending over time. Using category-level Google Trends data linked to transaction-based card spending across six online consumption categories in Türkiye from 2015 to 2025, the study analyzes contemporaneous, dynamic, nonlinear, and context-dependent relationships between digital search and consumption using panel-data regression analysis. The findings show that higher contemporaneous search intensity is associated with lower immediate spending, indicating that elevated search reflects evaluation, uncertainty reduction, and deliberation rather than purchase readiness. Higher contemporaneous search intensity is linked to reduced immediate spending, according to the data, suggesting that increased search is more indicative of evaluation, uncertainty reduction, and deliberation rather than purchase While short-term variations in search activity such as attention or salience shocks accelerate spending, search effects develop dynamically and nonlinearly: spending only rises after adequate knowledge accumulation. Moreover, there are systematic differences in the behavioral meaning of search in different decision contexts. In low-involvement categories, search is more closely associated with rapid purchasing behavior, while in high-involvement categories, it predominantly represents extended deliberation and delayed spending. These findings highlight the importance of reinterpreting the role of digital search in consumer decision-making from a process-oriented perspective.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Digital Search Behavior
• Customer Journey
• Search Intensity
• Search Volatility
• Consumer Involvement
• Google Trends

Aramadan Satın Almaya: Dijital Arama Tüketici Harcama Dinamiklerini Nasıl Yansıtır

Öz

Dijital arama verileri, pazarlama araştırmaları ve uygulamalarında tüketici talebindeki değişimleri zamanında yansıtan göstergeler olarak yaygın biçimde kullanılmaktadır. Ancak bu yaklaşım, arama davranışının altında yatan davranışsal süreçleri çoğu zaman göz ardı etmektedir. Bu çalışma, dijital aramayı mekanik bir talep göstergesi olarak değil, karar verme sürecine ait bir davranışsal sinyal olarak yeniden kavramsallaştırmakta ve arama davranışının zaman içinde gerçekleşen tüketici harcamalarına nasıl dönüştüğünü incelemektedir. 2015–2025 döneminde Türkiye’de altı çevrim içi tüketim kategorisine ait Google Trends verileri ile işlem-temelli kart harcaması verileri birleştirilerek, dijital arama ile tüketim arasındaki eşanlı, dinamik, doğrusal olmayan ve bağlama duyarlı ilişkiler panel veri regresyon analizi kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Bulgular, eşanlı arama yoğunluğunun daha düşük anlık harcamayla ilişkili olduğunu göstermekte; bu durum, artan aramanın satın almaya hazır olmayı değil, değerlendirme, belirsizliği azaltma ve bilişsel müzakere süreçlerini yansıttığını ortaya koymaktadır. Buna karşılık, dikkat veya belirginlik şoklarını temsil eden kısa dönemli arama dalgalanmalarının harcamayı hızlandırdığı görülmektedir. Arama etkileri zaman içinde dinamik ve doğrusal olmayan bir biçimde gelişmekte; harcamalar ancak yeterli bilgi birikimi sağlandıktan sonra artmaktadır. Ayrıca, arama davranışının davranışsal anlamının karar bağlamına göre sistematik biçimde farklılaştığı tespit edilmektedir. Düşük ilgilenim düzeyine sahip kategorilerde arama, daha hızlı satın alma davranışıyla daha yakından ilişkilidir. Buna karşılık, yüksek ilgilenim düzeyine sahip kategorilerde arama, ağırlıklı olarak uzayan değerlendirme süreçlerini ve gecikmiş harcamayı temsil etmektedir. Bu bulgular, dijital aramanın tüketici karar sürecindeki rolünü süreç-odaklı bir bakış açısıyla yeniden yorumlamanın önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dijital Arama Davranışı
• Müşteri Yolculuğu
• Arama Yoğunluğu
• Arama Volatilitesi
• Tüketici İlgilenimi
• Google Trends

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