Sigorta Piyasalarında Yapısal Kalıcılık: OECD Panel Verilerinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, OECD sigorta sistemlerinde Brüt Primlerin (Gross Written Premiums – GWP) stokastik davranışını incelemekte ve sigorta faaliyetinin döngüsel bir risk transfer akışı mı yoksa finansal altyapının yapısal olarak evrilen bir bileşeni mi olduğunu sorgulamaktadır. 1983–2024 dönemini kapsayan 17 OECD ülkesi için yıllık veriler kullanılarak, yatay kesit bağımlılığını, heterojenliği, gözlemlenemeyen ortak faktörleri ve hem keskin hem de yumuşak yapısal değişimleri dikkate alan kapsamlı bir panel birim kök ve durağanlık testi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, GWP serilerinde yapısal kalıcılık lehine geniş, ancak mekanik olarak tamamen tekdüze olmayan kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Bazı test spesifikasyonları kısmi ortalamaya dönüş bulgusu üretmekle birlikte, genel sonuçlar özellikle heterojenliği, ortak faktörleri ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan çerçevelerde sigorta faaliyetindeki şokların büyük ölçüde geçici olmadığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, sigorta faaliyetinin makro-finansal panel modellerde ele alınmasına yönelik, eşbütünleşme veya nedensellik çerçevelerine doğrudan dayanmayan sigortaya özgü bir tanısal temel sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Brüt primler
• sigorta faaliyetleri
• panel birim kök testleri

Structural Persistence in Insurance Markets: Evidence from OECD Panel Data

Öz

This study characterizes the stochastic behavior of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) across OECD insurance systems and asks whether insurance activity behaves as a cyclical risk-transfer flow or as a structurally evolving component of financial infrastructure. Using annual data for 17 OECD countries over the period 1983–2024, we apply a comprehensive set of panel unit root and stationarity tests that account for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity, unobserved common factors, and both abrupt and smooth structural change. The evidence provides broad, though not mechanically uniform, support for structural persistence in GWP. While some specifications indicate partial mean reversion, the overall findings suggest that shocks to insurance activity are not predominantly transitory, particularly under heterogeneous, factor-augmented, and break-sensitive frameworks. The results provide an insurance-specific diagnostic foundation for modeling insurance activity in macro-financial panel settings without relying directly on cointegration or causality frameworks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gross written premiums
• insurance activity
• panel unit root tests

Kaynakça

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