Niceliksel Gevşeme Politikalarının Kamu Maliyesi Etkisi

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, 2008-2009 küresel ekonomik krizi sonrası dönemde yaygın bir biçimde uygulanan niceliksel gevşeme politikalarının kamu maliyesi üzerindeki etkisini ABD örneği üzerinden analiz etmektir. ABD’nin niceliksel gevşeme politikaları borçlanma faiz oranlarını düşürerek bütçedeki faiz harcamalarını azaltmış, ekonomik aktiviteyi canlandırarak vergi gelirlerini artırmış ve Merkez Bankası’nın Hazine’ye olan kar transferlerini artırarak vergi dışı bütçe gelirlerinin yükselmesine neden olmuştur. Tüm bunların sonucunda, bütçe açığı ve kamu borç stoku bu politikaların uygulanmadığı duruma göre daha düşük gerçekleşmiştir. Dolayısıyla, gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının uyguladığı niceliksel gevşeme politikiları kamu maliyesine olumlu etkiler yaparak borcun sürdürülebilirliğine katkı sağlamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Niceliksel Gevşeme,Kamu Maliyesi,Borcun Sürdürülebilirliği

Public Finance Effect of Quantitative Easing Policies

Öz

The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of quantitative easing (QE) policies on public finance through the case study of United States. Quantitative easing policies of United States have reduced interest expenditures by lowering government bond interest rates, have increased tax revenues by supporting economic activity and have enhanced non-tax budget revenue by increasing Central Bank profit transfers to Treasury in United States. As a consequence of these, budget deficit and public debt stock have declined compared with no policy scenario. Hence, quantitative easing policies implemented by advanced country central banks have made positive effects to public finance and contributed to debt sustainability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Quantitative Easing,Public Finance,Debt Sustainability

Kaynakça

1. Bauer, M. D., ve Neely, C. J. (2014). International Channels of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy, Journal of International Money and Finance, 44, 24-46.
2. Bauer, M. D., ve Rudebusch, G. D. (2014). The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases, International Journal of Central Banking, 10(3), 233-289.
3. Baumeister, C., ve Benati, L. (2013). Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound, International Journal of Central Banking, 9(2), 165-212.
4. Chen, H., Curdia, V., ve Ferrero, A. (2012a). The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-scale Asset Purchase Programmes, The Economic Journal, 122(564), F289-F315.
5. Chen, Q., Filardo, A. J., He, D., ve Zhu, F. (2012b). International Spillovers of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies, BIS Papers, No.66, 230-74.
6. Chung, H., Laforte, J. P., Reifschneider, D., ve Williams, J. C. (2012). Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(s1), 47-82.
7. Dahlhaus, T., Hess, K., ve Reza, A. (2014). International Transmission Channels of US Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada, Bank of Canada Working Paper, No. 14-43.
8. D’amico, S., English, W., Lopez-Salido, D., ve Nelson, E. (2012). The Federal Reserve's Large-scale Asset Purchase Programmes: Rationale and Effects, The Economic Journal, 122(564), F415-F446.

9. D’amico, S., King, T. B. (2013). Flow and Stock Effects of Large-Scale Treasury Purchases: Evidence on the Importance of Local Supply, Journal of Financial Economics, 108(2), 425-448.
10. Doh, T. (2010). The Efficacy of Large-Scale Asset Purchases at the Zero Lower Bound, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 95(2), 5-34.
11. Dye, R. F. (2004). State revenue cyclicality, National Tax Journal, 133-145.
12. Fratzscher, M., Duca, M. L., ve Straub, R. (2013). On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing, ECB Working Paper, No. 1557.
13. Gagnon, J., Raskin, M., Remache, J., ve Sack, B. (2011). The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases, International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), 3-43.
14. Gertler, M., ve Karadi, P. (2013). QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3...: A Framework for Analyzing Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool, International Journal of Central Banking, 9(1), 5-53.
15. Georgiadis, G., ve Grab, J. (2016). Global Financial Market Impact of the Announcement of the ECB's Extended Asset Purchase Programme, Journal of Financial Stability, 26, 257-265.
16. Glick, R., ve Leduc, S. (2012). Central Bank Announcements of Asset Purchases and the Impact on Global Financial and Commodity Markets, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(8), 2078-2101.
17. Glick, R., ve Leduc, S. (2013). The Effects of Unconventional and Conventional US Monetary Policy on the Dollar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, No. 2013-11.
18. Hancock, D., ve Passmore, W. (2011). Did the Federal Reserve's MBS Purchase Program Lower Mortgage Rates?, Journal of Monetary Economics, 58(5), 498-514.
19. Joyce, M., Lasaosa, A., Stevens, I., ve Tong, M. (2011). The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom, International Journal of Central Banking, 7(3), 113-161.
20. Kapetanios, G., Mumtaz, H., Stevens, I., ve Theodoridis, K. (2012). Assessing the Economy-Wide Effects of Quantitative Easing, The Economic Journal, 122(564), F316-F347.
21. Krishnamurthy, A., ve Vissing-Jorgensen, A. (2011). The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy, NBER Working Paper, No. 17555.
22. Kozicki, S., Santor, E., ve Suchanek, L. (2011). Unconventional Monetary Policy: The International Experience with Central Bank Asset Purchases, Bank of Canada Review, 2011(Spring), 13-25.
23. Lenza, M., Pill, H., ve Reichlin, L. (2010). Monetary Policy in Exceptional Times, Economic Policy, 25(62), 295-339.
24. Li, C., ve Wei, M. (2013). Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Progarms, International Journal of Central Banking, 9(1), 3-39.
25. Lim, J. J., ve Mohapatra, S. (2016). Quantitative Easing and the Post-Crisis Surge in Financial Flows to Developing Countries, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 68, 331–357.
26. Meaning, J., ve Zhu, F. (2011). The Impact of Recent Central Bank Asset Purchase Programmes, BIS Quarterly Review, December 2011.
27. Meinusch, A., ve Tillmann, P. (2016). The Macroeconomic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks, Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 47, Part A, 58–67.
28. Moore, J., Nam, S., Suh, M., ve Tepper, A. (2013). Estimating the Impacts of US LSAP's on Emerging Market Economies' Local Currency Bond Markets, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, No. 595.
29. Neely, C. J. (2015). Unconventional Monetary Policy Had Large International Effects, Journal of Banking & Finance, 52, 101-111.
30. Pesaran, M. H., ve Smith, R. P. (2016). Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing, Research in Economics, 70(2), 262–280.
31. Oda, N., ve Ueda, K. (2007). The Effects Of The Bank Of Japan'S Zero Interest Rate Commitment And Quantitative Monetary Easing On The Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach, The Japanese Economic Review, 58(3), 303-328.
32. Swanson, E. T. (2011). Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2011(1), 151-188.
33. Swanson, E. T., ve Williams, J. C. (2014). Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium-and Longer-Term Interest Rates, The American Economic Review, 104(10), 3154-3185.
34. Szczerbowicz, U. (2015). The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments?. International Journal of Central Banking, 11(4), 91-127.
35. Thornton, D. L. (2012). Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series, No. 2012-015.
36. Tillmann, P. (2016). Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets, Journal of International Money and Finance, 66, 136-156.
37. Weale, M., ve Wieladek, T. (2016). What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Asset Purchases?, Journal of Monetary Economics, 79, 81-93.