Yatırım Faaliyetlerinden Kaynaklanan Nakit Akışlarının Tahmin Gücü

Öz

İşletme faaliyetlerinden nakit akışları (İFNA) firma değerini belirleyen önemli unsurlardan olduğu ve firmanın likiditesini gösterdiği için gelecek dönemki İFNA’nın tahmini birçok paydaşın odak noktasında yer almaktadır. Çalışmamızda, yatırım faaliyetlerinden kaynaklanan nakit akışlarının (YFKNA) İFNA’yı tahmin gücü incelenmektedir. 2009-2018 yılları arası Borsa İstanbul’a kote firmalar için yapılan analizler, YFKNA’nın bir yıl sonraki ve iki yıl sonraki İFNA’yı tahmin gücü bulunmasa da üç yıl sonraki İFNA’yı tahmin edebildiğini göstermektedir. Diğer bir deyişle, sonuçlarımız, bugünkü yatırımların meyvelerinin üç yıl sonrasında alınabildiğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yatırım faaliyetlerinden kaynaklanan nakit akışları
• tahmin gücü
• yatırım

PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF INVESTING CASH FLOWS

Öz

Prediction of cash flow from operating activities (CFO) is on the focus of most stakeholders of a firm since CFO is the major ingredient of the firm value and it reveals the financial health and liquidity of the firm. The extant literature focuses on the predictive abilities of today’s earnings and CFO figures. Different than the literature, we examine the predictive ability of cash flow from investing activities (CFI). By employing a sample of Turkish listed firms between 2009 and 2018, we document that CFI does have a significant impact on neither one-year-ahead CFO nor two-years-ahead CFO while it negatively and significantly affects three-years-ahead CFO. In other words, today’s cash investments are harvested three years after they take place.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cash flow from investments
• Investing
• Predictive ability

Kaynakça

1. AKTAŞ, R., KARĞIN, S. (2012), “Predictive Ability of Earnings and Cash Flows: Evidence from Turkish Firms’ Cash Flow Statements that Prepared by IAS 7”, Journal of Money, Investment and Banking, 25, 171–180.
2. AL-ATTAR, A., HUSSEIN, S. (2004), “Corporate Data and Future Cash Flows”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 31(7–8), 861–903.
3. ANDRADE, G., MITCHELL, M., STAFFORD, E. (2001), “New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(2), 103–120.
4. CHAMBERS, D., LINSMEIER, T. J., SHAKESPEARE, C., SOUGIANNIS, T. (2007), “An Evaluation of SFAS No. 130 Comprehensive Income Disclosures”, Review of Accounting Studies, 12, 557–593.
5. CORDIS, A. S., KIRBY, C. (2017), “Capital Expenditures and Firm Performance: Evidence from a Cross-Sectional Analysis of Stock Returns”, Accounting and Finance, 57(4), 1019–1042.
6. DE GEORGE, E. T., LI, X., SHIVAKUMAR, L. (2016), “A Review of the IFRS Adoption Literature”, Review of Accounting Studies, 21(3), 898–1004.
7. DECHOW, P. M., KOTHARI, S. P., WATTS, R. L. (1998), “The Relation between Earnings and Cash Flows”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 25, 133–168.
8. DEVALLE, A., ONALI, E., MAGARINI, R. (2010), “Assessing the Value Relevance of Accounting Data after IFRS Introduction in Europe”, Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 21(2), 85–119.

9. ERTUĞRUL, M. (2019), “KAP Verilerini Kullanmak: Değer Ilişkisi Analizi”, 16th International Conference on Accounting, Aydin/Turkey: MÖDAV, 173–180.
10. ERTUĞRUL, M., DEMIR, V. (2018), “How Does Unobserved Heterogeneity Affect Value Relevance?”, Australian Accounting Review, 28(2), 288–301.
11. FACCIO, M., MASULIS, R. W. (2005), “The Choice of Payment Method in European Mergers and Acquisitions”, Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1345–1388.
12. FINGER, C. A. (1994), “The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Earnings and Cash Flow”, Journal of Accounting Research, 32(2), 210.
13. GÓMEZ-RODRÍGUEZ, L. M., MUIÑO, F., LAMAS, F. R. (2012), “Do Investing Cash Flows Help in Explaining Future Corporate Performance?”, Spanish Journal of Finance and Accounting, 41(154), 185–208.
14. GOW, I. D., ORMAZABAL, G., TAYLOR, D. J. (2010), “Correcting for Cross‐Sectional and Time‐Series Dependence in Accounting Research”, Accounting Review, 85(2), 483–512.
15. HAYN, C. (1995), “The Information Content of Losses”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 20, 125–153.
16. HERTENSTEIN, J. H., MCKINNON, S. M. (1997), “Solving the Puzzle of the Cash Flow Statement”, Business Horizons, 40(1), 69–77.
17. INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTING STANDARDS BOARD (2017), IAS 7: Cash Flow Statements.
18. KERSTEIN, J., KIM, S. (1995), “The Incremental Information Content of Capital Expenditures”, The Accounting Review, 70(3), 513–526.
19. KIM, M., KROSS, W. (2005), “The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing - Not Decreasing”, Journal of Accounting Research, 43(5), 753–780.
20. KYRIAZOPOULOS, G., DRYMBETAS, E. (2015), “Long-term Performance of Acquirers Involved in Domestic Bank Ms&As in Europe”, International Journal of Financial Research, 6(1), 56–67.
21. LA PORTA, R., LOPEZ-DE-SILANES, F., ANDREI, S., VISHNY, R. W. (1997), “Legal Determinants of External Finance”, (NBER Working Paper Series No. 5879).
22. LIVNAT, J., ZAROWIN, P. (1990), “The Incremental Information Content of Cash-Flow Components. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 13(1), 25–46.
23. MAJANGA, B. B. (2018), “Corporate CAPEX and Market Capitalization of Firms on Malawi Stock Exchange: An Empirical Study”, Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, 16(1), 108–119.
24. MARTYNOVA, M., RENNEBOOG, L. (2006), “Mergers and Acquisitions in Europe”, (CentER Discussion Paper No. 2006–6).
25. ONALI, E., GINESTI, G., VASILAKIS, C. (2017), “How Should We Estimate Value-Relevance Models? Insights from European Data”, British Accounting Review, 49(5), 460–473.
26. PETERSEN, M. A. (2009), “Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches”, Review of Financial Studies, 22(1), 435–480.
27. RACIBORSKI, M. (2017), “The Impact of Takeovers on the Acquiring Firms in the Pharmaceutical Market”, Journal of Competitiveness, 9(1), 89–102.
28. ROLL, R. (1986), “The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers”, Journal of Business, 59(2), 197–216.
29. SETH, A., SONG, K. P., RICHARDSON PETTIT, R. (2002), “Value Creation and Destruction in Cross-Border Acquisitions: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Acquisitions of U.S. Firms”, Strategic Management Journal, 23(10), 921–940.
30. SHARMA, S. S., NARAYAN, P. K., THURAISAMY, K., LAILA, N. (2019), “Is Indonesia’s Stock Market Different When It Comes to Predictability?”, Emerging Markets Review, 40, 1–11.
31. SIEKKINEN, J. (2016), “Value Relevance of Fair Values in Different Investor Protection Environments”, Accounting Forum, 40(1), 1–15.
32. TEMİZ, H., ACAR, M. (2018), “Gelecek Dönem Nakit Akışı Tahmininde Dönem Karı ve Nakit Akışı Karşılaştırması”, Muhasebe ve Denetime Bakış, 54, 113–124.